The Indian State is venturing into blockading Imphal Valley

It might sound totally surreal to the normal citizen of the world but the Indian State is actually planning to blockade the Imphal valley.

True,the dirty and visible blockading would still be undertaken by the Nagas. But the Indian State would try to magnify the impact of the blockade by not properly maintaining the other National highway,namely,the National Highway 53.

The still unfolding drama tells us that the Indain State would give a lot of lip services to the repair works of the National Highway no 53 but would do nothing concrete.As and when the Nagas calls for a blockade in the National Highway no 39,the decibel of the lip services would grow leaps and bound--there might be a lot of photo-ops of some patchy repair works currently taken up at the time,that too,by the lenses of specially invited media men.Simultaneously,there would be headline-grabbing announcements of how the Indian State is providing 'security' to the truck convoys in the highways to break the blockade by the Nagas.

But,they would do nothing to make the National Highway 53 to be reasonably motorable.

The Indian state's ultimate objective is to widen what the Prime Minister termed the 'Meitei-Naga divide'.

If we shed aside politics for a moment,then it would be crystal clear that the Indian State is venturing into something that's completely immoral.

This time the immorality of the Indian State would have had direct and visible impact on the bottomline of every household of the Imphal valley and the surrounding hills and mountains.This time the immorality of the Indian State would seriously test the ability of the every household to keep its hearth burning. One hint--a cooking gas cylinder which normally sells for around Rs 300/- is still selling at around Rs 1500/-.

I'm using the words 'This time..'because the other immoral acts of the Indian State like the draconian law,AFSPA and the resultant 9-years long fast by Irom Sharmila have had its impact on the newspaper headlines and the elitist discussions.They have had no impact on the bottomline of the common households.

The line of the shrinking bottomline of the common households of the Imphal valley and the surrounding hills and mountains and the another line of the immorality of the Indian State would likley to intersect on the dusty and windy National Highway 53,which is commonly known as Jiri Lambi.

That point of intersection would likely to be a flashpoint.

We have already have some hints on the scale of the coming flashpoint.

If we travel back two weeks from now,we would remember that some transporters' union gave the deadline of August 31 for the State government to spell out some clear policy on National Highway 53.

Just around 31st August,the news started to trickling in that the chinese had deployed more than 10,000 soldier in gilgit region of the Indian State calls the 'Pakistan occupied Kashmir'.The news was broken by none other than New York Times,which said that the Chinses deployment is to oversee the construction of highway there.

Concidence? Is it??

At the extreme East of the Indian sub-continent the Indian State is trying to use a highway to feed the widening of the 'Meitei-Naga divide'---at another extreme North-West point,the Chinese are deploying thousands of soldiers to build a highway.

India vs China:Manipur's rebels in spotlight

Three US nuclear submarines,retrofitted to carry nearly 200 cruiise missiles each,surfaces,near simultaneously,in the waters,very close to China. The US naval commander said that the near simultaneous three way acts were executed to send home the message that the US is wholeheartedly into the business of playing the role of 'balancer' in the region.

Here is the TIME's full story detailing the three naval shows by the US.

A week after this US naval episode which took place in the last week of June,a very unusual story emanated from New Delhi.Mr Shiv Shankar Menon, the National Security Advisor,would be going to China as a special envoy of the Prime Minister of India! Something's happening,isn't it?

REading together,it's quite clear that New Delhi is trying to emphatically send the message to China that there is a very determined 'balancer'in the strongest nation of the world,the US and so, china should not do anything to disturb the 'balance'in South Asia,more specifically,in the NE Region of India.

Now,the million dollar question: Did China recently do anything to disturb the 'balance'in South Asia?

The answer: China did nothing except the ZHAN LUE ARTICLE.

Here is a link to my take on ZHAN LUE ARTICLE.

Reading together with my last post,it is quite clear that script for the naval showmanship of the US and Mr MEnon as the special envoy of the Prime Minsiter of India was written during the recent Indo-US strategic talk(my last post).

So,what should we deduct from all these?

The answer: Behind all the media glare,Manipur's rebels have quitely jumped into the spotlights of the current and active dossiers of the strategic operatives and thinkers of all the national capitals of the world.

Mass uprising amidst the shift of Asia's strategic equilibrium?

We have in front of our eyes the dramatic shift of Asia's strategic equilibrium.

China raised the issue of Tibet,which the Indian state perceived to be breach in protocol and a clear snub to diplomatic overtures.

The Indian state was quick to up in its feet and despatch its Foreign Mionister to Washington,without even waiting for its President to return to its Capital.

India-US strategic is now underway in Washington,mostly in closed-door sessions.

The Indain State went all out to to hide the festering wounds in NE Region immediately aftermath the Zhan Lue article,which specifically mentioned that China could give helps to rebels of Assam and Nagaland.They tried to to do by arresting all but one leaders of the Assamese rebels,all from locations in a foreign country.That accomplished they turned towards Nagaland,feelng jittery by the moves of China and a little bit impatient to wrap up the longest running peace talk with the Naga rebels.The Naga rebel leaders together with the who's who of Naga political and social leaders are quick to get winds that the Indain state is jittery and impatient to wrap up the peace talk.Their immediate reaction:the fianl and all-out push to include at least some parts of the mountains of Ukhrul in the coming peace agreement.

All these developments result in a profound and totally unexpected possibility:the POSSIBILITY of mass uprising in the Imphal valley,as was witnessed in 18th June 2001,which waw the spontaneous reaction to include the hills and mountains surrounding the valley in the Indo-Naga peace talk.

Part of the Indian state's effort to hide the festering wounds is to achieved the task of isolating the rebels of Manipur and then,their containment.

Now,there is a very real possibility of mass uprising in the same state which the Indian sets out to isolate and then,contain it.

At the risk of being repititive I would say that all developments are the direct results of July 23rd killings by the police commandos in Khwairamband Keithel.

Now,the trend is quite discernible.

11th April 2010:The headlines of this day of most of the papers here was the story of yet another killing of a youth from near Tera Bazar in a fake encounter.This time there was no involvement of Manipur Police Commandos;the culprits this time are the troopers of the 28th Assam Rifles.

12th April 2010:The Hindu carried a news report,quoting the China Daily,which in short,told us that Chinese Government still viewed the border problem with India as one of the 'gnawing issues'.

Here is the link to the full Hindu report.

If we read this together with my last post, we can now safely infer that the trend is now quite discernible---

NOW,WE CAN NO LONGER BE PUT INSIDE THE BOX BY NEW DELHI.

Whenever they treat us like the prisoners inside the box,manifested in extra judicial killings-the fake encounters-many countries,like China are going to speak out.

End of the hiatus?

The Manipur Police Commandos has done it again. They cooly arrested a young man from the house of his brother in law and shot him death in cold blood.

It happened in Thoubal district 2 days back.

If my memory serves, it's the first time the Manipur Police Commandos has reverted into its lawless mould since the suspension of the 5 months long class boycott. Here, in my blog, it need not be reminded that the 5 months long class boycott was initiatred in protest against another of such shooting down of an arrested person in the middle of Khwairamband Bazar in broad daylight.

Outwardly, it may seem to be just another ghastly case of those 'policemem going trigger happy' or another of those 'fake encounters'.

But it is not.

In my mind, it is a well-planned act of cold-blooded murder with a sinister intent of sending out a devilish political message.

Here's how it is.

I think we can believe the murdered man's family when they said that he was a former cadre of a rebel group but he discontinued working for it for sometime now. Actually, he was a tiller of the land to eke out a living for his family.

The rebel group to which he belonged is widely believed to have the so-called 'Meetei revivalism' in its agenda.

And, it's very crucial, 'Sajibu Nongma Panba Cheiraoba' is in the top spot in the work in progress program of the so-called Meetei revivalists.

So, it's clear that some sophisticated but evil minds in the upper power echelon of the State Government decided that the front pages of the newspapers of the day of 'Sajibu Nongma Panba Cheiraoba' should be splashed with the news of a slaying of a 'Meetei revivalist'.

Seen in this light, the intent of this murder goes beyond the boundaries of the usual narratives of the Rebels vs the Police or the Rebels vs the State--it's a well-thought out plan to redraw the present society of Manipur with a casteist and divisive brush and hence, to pit one section against the another.

But,does this episode ends here now?

The answer is a big NO.

Another 2 days later , suddenly China again started talking about the boundary with India, though,outwardly,in a positive tone. They are saying they are willing to work with India to solve the boundary issue.

Again, if my memory serves me, it's again the first time since the suspension of the 5 months long class boycott when China started talking about the boundary issue with INdia.

It would be foolish to brush aside it as some some kind freaky coincidence. It's following a pattern.

Here's how it does.

Immediately after the first case of documented murder of an arrested person by the Manipur Police Commandos in Khwairamband Bazar, China raised a hue and cry over the boundary dispute with India. They even raised objection to the official visit of the Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh to Arunachal Pradesh. They openly said that Arunachal Pradesh is actually Western Tibet and so, a de-facto part of China.

After the suspension of the 5 months long class boycott, China kept mum.

I had already said that this suspension of 5 months long class boycott is only a hiatus in the long drawn out political stalemate.(My next last post).

During this hiatus, the ruling class in Delhi had already announced the raisning of brand new 26 batalians of Assam Rifles, wich,for all practical purpose (leaving aside the legaistic smokescreen) is an active part of India's military.

They have also looking for suitable land for a brand new Air Force base here in Manipur.

And, most importantly, they are still letting the Manipur Police Commandos to kill innocent and arrested persons, as seen in the murder of an arrested person in Thoubal district 4 days back.

Then, China suddenly started talking about boundary dispute with India.

Isn't it the case of a clear pattern?

Then, the Manipur Police Commandos might have initiated the chain of events that would mark the end of the ongoing hiatus.

More than 30 days of non-event

It was more than 30 days of non-events here in my blog. For one thing, it's becoming harder to find time but I'm trying.

Still, I managed to time for visiting a theatre!

I was (and,still is) impressed by the movie, Nobap.

After I returned from the theatre, I sat down and wrote a review of the moviw.

It was published by the Imphal Free Press on the 24th of January 2010.

As all of the Imphal daily papers do not (yet) have dependable online edition, I can't find a link of the review.

After several weeks later, I again submitted the same review to Epao(www.e-pao.net). I told them that it was already published by the Imphal Free Press but I still wanted them to publish as Epao has a distinct set of readership.

(It took me several weeks to submit the review to Epao because of peronal problem which prevented me from going online for several weeks at a stretch!).

Here is the link to the review.

Dramatic turns of events

It's now clear that a division bench of the Guwahati High court considering a prayer through a PIL(Is it by the mother of Sanjit?) ruled that the case of the killing of the killings of July 23 be investigated by the premier agency,CBI.

The State government acted quickly. The State Cabinet noted the High Court ruling and quickly transferred the case to CBI.

These two developments robbed the agitators's right to continue the ongoing class boycott as it would go against Judicial and Constitutional conventions.

In my mind, the Court,wittingly or unwittingly, provided simply provided a hiatus to the prolonged political stalemate.

My point: the stalemate is here and very alive.

These dramatic turns of events catapulted the issues of July 23 killings to a newer ground whereby it would acquire a brand new player--New Delhi.

For the last 5/6 months the issues are between the agitators and the State Government of Manipur. Now, that the killings are to be investigated by CBI, New Delhi is already dragged into the matter as CBI is directly under the Ministry of Home Affairs.

My point: now, New Delhi can bring justice to the July 23 killings and booked the killers. Or, it can go the Sopore way.

In my mind,the recent track record of CBI in investigating the rape and killings of twp Kashmiri girls by the personnel of the Indian military is patently POLITICAL.

If new Delhi decides to go the Sopore way, the future players in the July 23 struggle would be New Delhi and the motley group agitators here in Manipur.

The July 23 killings is poised to have a far greater impact on the political scenario in South Asia and beyond.

Is it the countdown to war?

The PTI on a news datelined 2nd Jan 2010 informed us that the Defence Secretaty of India together with a high ranking military officers from the Eastern Command may visit China on the 6th.

We have to note the qualifying words 'may visit' in the above sentence.

6th of January is not even a week to go but they are still using the qualifying words.

Is it normal not to confirm a State visit by such a high ranking officials of a sovereign country when the it is only 4 days to go?

Does it even keep up the essential minimum protocol between two sovereign countries?

And, the date 6th of January is astonishing because the last date for filling up of exam forms for 10th and 12th standard students here in Manipur ends on the 7th.

We have remind ourselves that 5 months long class boycott is continuing.

In such a scenario, the government is forcing the exams by fixing the last date for from fill ups on the 7th of this month.

Naturally, the showdown between the government and the agitationists should come around the time the forced exam commences. I've heard that last date for form fill up is 7th but I've no idea when the actual exams commences.

So, the question:

Is the Defence Secretary's visit to China startegically timed to coincide with the coming showdown?

It may sound silly trying to link the State visit of such a high ranking official with the ongoiong class boycott by students here. But we should not forget the unheralded State visit by the Vice President of China to Burma some weeks back. And, inside Burma there are formidable fighting forces of the motley of insurgent groups. These groups may well launch a definitive attack on the Indian forces to coincide with the forced exams.

Was the visit of the Vice President of China to Burma aimed at facilitating such a definitvie attack?

If the answer is 'yes', we may well understand that the count down to war is just round the corner.