by the meltingpot: August 2011

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Indeed, what is at work in the recent return of realism is the revenge of geography in the most old-fashioned sense. In the 18th and 19th centuries, before the arrival of political science as an academic specialty, geography was an honored, if not always formalized, discipline in which politics, culture, and economics were often conceived of in reference to the relief map. Thus, in the Victorian and Edwardian eras, mountains and the men who grow out of them were the first order of reality; ideas, however uplifting, were only the second.
And yet, to embrace geography is not to accept it as an implacable force against which humankind is powerless. Rather, it serves to qualify human freedom and choice with a modest acceptance of fate. This is all the more important today, because rather than eliminating the relevance of geography, globalization is reinforcing it. Mass communications and economic integration are weakening many states, exposing a Hobbesian world of small, fractious regions. Within them, local, ethnic, and religious sources of identity are reasserting themselves, and because they are anchored to specific terrains, they are best explained by reference to geography. Like the faults that determine earthquakes, the political future will be defined by conflict and instability with a similar geographic logic. The upheaval spawned by the ongoing economic crisis is increasing the relevance of geography even further, by weakening social orders and other creations of humankind, leaving the natural frontiers of the globe as the only restraint.
So we, too, need to return to the map, and particularly to what I call the “shatter zones” of Eurasia. We need to reclaim those thinkers who knew the landscape best. And we need to update their theories for the revenge of geography in our time.
Here is the link for the whole write up.

Now at 2nd place

My view is that relations between countries in the coming decades are most likely to reflect their cultural commitments, their cultural ties and antagonism with other countries rather than other factors. Quite obviously, power will continue to play a central role in global politics, as it always does. But usually there is something else behind conflicts. In the 18th century in Europe, the issues to a large extent involved questions of monarchy versus the emerging republican movements, first in America and then in France. In the 19th century, it involved states identifying themselves through nationalism. In the 20th century, ideology came to the fore, largely, but not exclusively, as a result of the Russian Revolution. We had fascism, communism and liberal democracy competing with each other. Well, that’s pretty much over. Liberal democracy has come to be accepted, in theory at least, around the world, if not always in practice. So the question really is what will be the central focus of global politics in the coming decades? My argument remains that cultural identities, antagonisms and affiliations will not only play a role, but play a major role in relations between states. The full interview is here.

This is the 3rd

Every citizen in the City of Richardson will be able to access 756 Kbps of internet connectivity for free, from anywhere in the city. They will be able to access the internet from their homes, schools, restaurants and parks using standard wi-fi connections which are now installed on almost every notebook computer. That is almost as fast as many so-called high speed broadband connections that one pays dearly for today, and several times faster than the various hotspots at your local coffee shops. And I should note that the tax-payers of the City of Richardson are not paying one penny for this, and in fact are going to see additional revenues as a benefit. ... At the beginning of this letter, I suggested that this would be one of the fastest worldwide rollouts of a technology ever seen. It was just 20 years ago that the first cellular systems were being built. The rollout for mesh wireless systems is going to make that look slow. There are several reasons I make this assertion. But they all center on the facts that installing mesh systems will be cheaper and easier than any previous system and the economics in both the developed and especially the developing world will be so radically compelling. Throw in the fact the any astute politician will want to be at the front of this parade (They will all want to say, "I was the man who helped bring free internet to everyone!") and the groundwork is laid for rapid deployment. In Richardson and elsewhere, MeshLinx is offering the basic infrastructure for free. This avoids all the time consuming, political budget battles in the cities. When a service is offered for free, much of the mandated competitive process is eliminated. Next is the low cost of installation of the system. As noted above, Richardson is a city of roughly 100,000 people living in 27.4 square miles. It will "only" cost about $2,000,000 today to lay the wireless blanket I mentioned above. It will cost a great deal less in the future, as MeshLinx is building the pods at a pace of 100 a month today. The maximum output of the US pilot assembly line is 500 a month. When the demand exceeds this (and it will in a very short time) discussions have been held to move volume production to China. Of course, the world will need tens of millions of pods. The cost for a pod will be a fraction of today's cost, with that installation number for a city like Richardson soon being half (or less) the cost of today. What does that $1 or 2 million get you? The infrastructure to be an internet connection, telephone, security, entertainment provider and a whole lot more company. As noted, it will get cheaper as the number of pods being made each month rises, thus lowering their costs dramatically. This technology does have scale. The cost of physically putting up a pod is not a large part of the equation, as you simply need to run a power line, attach a few bolts to a mount on the side of a building or light pole and then off to the next point. Think about the 40,000 homes and businesses in Richardson. If and (hopefully) over time when 10% decide to pay $50 a month for 10-20 Mbps high speed internet access you could see a revenue of $2.5 million a year just from internet access. Now add in all the other income possibilities (phone, entertainment, security and don't forget advertising revenue on the free service!). Think about your town or country. What would service like this be worth? If you are a small city that does not have high speed connections available, how many businesses that could bring jobs do not come your way because they need reliable communications for their work and their employees? If you are in a developing country, where internet access is difficult and expensive, it will open whole new vistas. Couple that with the various programs which want to give cheap laptops to kids in poor countries, and you could see significant social progress in a generation. Here is the link.

Sunday, August 21, 2011

The ongoing blockades--the Chanakya-esque ploy to drive a wedge between Manipuri society and China

We have now twin blockades--enforced on all highways both by the Nagas and the Kukis.

We are facing the prospect of the tightest blockade ever witnessed in recent times by this tiny valley of ours.

But we also notice 2 crucial differnetiating characteristics in the present blockades:

1.Both are carefully crafted in New Delhi.

2.Both the blockades can be called off in a short notice because they are concerned with the relatively small matter of creation of a district.

New Delhi is testing if the tightest ever blockade of Imphal Valley result in another Gilgit Batistan.

If there materializes another Gilgit Batistan,New Delhi would instruct the Kukis to
immediately call off the blockade(because New Delhi can act swiftly in a matter as simple as creation of a district).

In the above scenario,the Chinese would land themselves in a situation which will look foolish to the rest of the amused world.

But New Delhi is not interested in painting the Chinese as foolish.There is more subtle goal.

If the Chinese land themselves in the above situation,it would be solely because of the wrong inputs from the Imphal Valley.Then the chinese would have no option but to
recalibrate the Manipuri society--the inputs from Manipuri society is at best unreliable and the Manipuri society itself is at best kept in a distance.

Thus,New Delhi would succeed in driving a wedge between the Chinese and the Manipuri
society.

I can come this far because I 'jumped' to the conclusion that the ongoing blocakes are 'carefully crafted in New Delhi'.There is every likelyhood of any people thinking that I did actually 'jump to the conclusion'if we remember that the demand for a district in Sardar Hills is a 40 years old demand,which even the Chief Minister had publicly announced as being 'justified'.

To clarify this point,we need to revisit the chronology of the events of the last few weeks:

1)On the 23rd July 2011,Mr Pranab Mukherjee announced 1 trillion USD investment in NE,which can be inferred to as a round about way of giving notice to China by India that India together with US can outspend China in every field including military spending.(My last post).

2)On the 30th July 2011,a Chinese military patrol in Arunachal Pradesh pulled down 200m long wall erected by the Indian military.This demolition of the wall prompted a formal lodging of a protest by the Indian milatry to the Chinese military.And, this is important,the Indian military immediately built up the 200m wall all over again.

In demolishing the wall,the Chinese are responding to Mr Pranab Mukherjee's notice--they are not responding in empty words but in concrete action.

3)On the 1st August 2011,the blockade by the Kukis started.

4)This is the game changing episode in our chronology.On the 18th of August the military headquarters in New Delhi broke the news of the demolition of the wall by the Chinese patrol.(This PTI news was carried on the 19th August issue of Poknapham--it's on page 2)

Why 18th of August?

It's because the Kuki leaders spearheading the blockade were in New Delhi meeting the President of India and the Home Minsiter,P.Chidambaram.Why so much readiness in lending ears to the group of people demanding a mere district admimistration by none other than the President of India herself?In contrast, the Chief Minister was made to cool his heals for several days in trying to meet the Home Minister.

All these things do not add up.

Unless,we try to see it as another round about way of sending another notice--you responded by demolishing the wall--now,we respond by blockading your darling Imphal Valley.

5)On the 21st August 2011,another blockade by the Nagas started.

Ironicaly,this 5th and the last episode makes us to see the begiining.

It turns out that Mr Wungnaoso Keishing, the Phungyar MLA worked closely with the Naga Lim people.They worked together with a carefully crafted plan in hand.

First,Mr Keishing was made to plead the Chief Minister for establishing a district
administration in Phungyar.It came out publicly that the chief Minsiter was ready to hand out the district to Mr Keishing.

Then,the Naga Lim people made a public show of not liking the idea.They even ambushed Mr Keishing,ever careful not to hurt Mr Keishing himself.They killed 6 people in the ambush,all non-Nagas except one.Careful planning,isn't it?

Then, feelers were made to be sent to the Kukis in Sardar Hills by using the Kuki groups engaged in Suspension of Operation with the Indian Military--the Chief Minister is ready to create new districts--so, why not longstanding Sardar Hills district?

All these careful crafting of the grand plan is not possible without the direct involvement of New Delhi.

by the meltingpot

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Now at 2nd place

This is the 3rd