by the meltingpot: June 2013

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Indeed, what is at work in the recent return of realism is the revenge of geography in the most old-fashioned sense. In the 18th and 19th centuries, before the arrival of political science as an academic specialty, geography was an honored, if not always formalized, discipline in which politics, culture, and economics were often conceived of in reference to the relief map. Thus, in the Victorian and Edwardian eras, mountains and the men who grow out of them were the first order of reality; ideas, however uplifting, were only the second.
And yet, to embrace geography is not to accept it as an implacable force against which humankind is powerless. Rather, it serves to qualify human freedom and choice with a modest acceptance of fate. This is all the more important today, because rather than eliminating the relevance of geography, globalization is reinforcing it. Mass communications and economic integration are weakening many states, exposing a Hobbesian world of small, fractious regions. Within them, local, ethnic, and religious sources of identity are reasserting themselves, and because they are anchored to specific terrains, they are best explained by reference to geography. Like the faults that determine earthquakes, the political future will be defined by conflict and instability with a similar geographic logic. The upheaval spawned by the ongoing economic crisis is increasing the relevance of geography even further, by weakening social orders and other creations of humankind, leaving the natural frontiers of the globe as the only restraint.
So we, too, need to return to the map, and particularly to what I call the “shatter zones” of Eurasia. We need to reclaim those thinkers who knew the landscape best. And we need to update their theories for the revenge of geography in our time.
Here is the link for the whole write up.

Now at 2nd place

My view is that relations between countries in the coming decades are most likely to reflect their cultural commitments, their cultural ties and antagonism with other countries rather than other factors. Quite obviously, power will continue to play a central role in global politics, as it always does. But usually there is something else behind conflicts. In the 18th century in Europe, the issues to a large extent involved questions of monarchy versus the emerging republican movements, first in America and then in France. In the 19th century, it involved states identifying themselves through nationalism. In the 20th century, ideology came to the fore, largely, but not exclusively, as a result of the Russian Revolution. We had fascism, communism and liberal democracy competing with each other. Well, that’s pretty much over. Liberal democracy has come to be accepted, in theory at least, around the world, if not always in practice. So the question really is what will be the central focus of global politics in the coming decades? My argument remains that cultural identities, antagonisms and affiliations will not only play a role, but play a major role in relations between states. The full interview is here.

This is the 3rd

Every citizen in the City of Richardson will be able to access 756 Kbps of internet connectivity for free, from anywhere in the city. They will be able to access the internet from their homes, schools, restaurants and parks using standard wi-fi connections which are now installed on almost every notebook computer. That is almost as fast as many so-called high speed broadband connections that one pays dearly for today, and several times faster than the various hotspots at your local coffee shops. And I should note that the tax-payers of the City of Richardson are not paying one penny for this, and in fact are going to see additional revenues as a benefit. ... At the beginning of this letter, I suggested that this would be one of the fastest worldwide rollouts of a technology ever seen. It was just 20 years ago that the first cellular systems were being built. The rollout for mesh wireless systems is going to make that look slow. There are several reasons I make this assertion. But they all center on the facts that installing mesh systems will be cheaper and easier than any previous system and the economics in both the developed and especially the developing world will be so radically compelling. Throw in the fact the any astute politician will want to be at the front of this parade (They will all want to say, "I was the man who helped bring free internet to everyone!") and the groundwork is laid for rapid deployment. In Richardson and elsewhere, MeshLinx is offering the basic infrastructure for free. This avoids all the time consuming, political budget battles in the cities. When a service is offered for free, much of the mandated competitive process is eliminated. Next is the low cost of installation of the system. As noted above, Richardson is a city of roughly 100,000 people living in 27.4 square miles. It will "only" cost about $2,000,000 today to lay the wireless blanket I mentioned above. It will cost a great deal less in the future, as MeshLinx is building the pods at a pace of 100 a month today. The maximum output of the US pilot assembly line is 500 a month. When the demand exceeds this (and it will in a very short time) discussions have been held to move volume production to China. Of course, the world will need tens of millions of pods. The cost for a pod will be a fraction of today's cost, with that installation number for a city like Richardson soon being half (or less) the cost of today. What does that $1 or 2 million get you? The infrastructure to be an internet connection, telephone, security, entertainment provider and a whole lot more company. As noted, it will get cheaper as the number of pods being made each month rises, thus lowering their costs dramatically. This technology does have scale. The cost of physically putting up a pod is not a large part of the equation, as you simply need to run a power line, attach a few bolts to a mount on the side of a building or light pole and then off to the next point. Think about the 40,000 homes and businesses in Richardson. If and (hopefully) over time when 10% decide to pay $50 a month for 10-20 Mbps high speed internet access you could see a revenue of $2.5 million a year just from internet access. Now add in all the other income possibilities (phone, entertainment, security and don't forget advertising revenue on the free service!). Think about your town or country. What would service like this be worth? If you are a small city that does not have high speed connections available, how many businesses that could bring jobs do not come your way because they need reliable communications for their work and their employees? If you are in a developing country, where internet access is difficult and expensive, it will open whole new vistas. Couple that with the various programs which want to give cheap laptops to kids in poor countries, and you could see significant social progress in a generation. Here is the link.

Sunday, June 30, 2013

Assam Rifles as Taliban and the game of tweaks and prods.

This time they acted really fast.

At around 1 in the morning of the 23rd of June 2013, a known Islamist militant outfit shot down 10 foreign mountain climbers in Gilgit Batistan region of Pakistan-controlled Kashmir.

Within the space of 2 hours,at around 3 in the morning,Assam Rifles troopers executed 6 cadres of a militant outfit(who ,it turned out,were previously lured into their custody) at the outskirts of Imphal.

Now, we need a backgrounder.The attack in Gilgit Batistan region was preceded by the shooting down of 2 policemen in busy Lalchowk area in Srinagar on the day before.If we remember that John Kerry,US Secy of State,landed in New Delhi on the same Sunday for the Indo-US Strategic Talk,then the two attacks neatly fell into their places.They gave notices to the US that when they are in strategic talks with India,they have to remember Kashmir issue is alive and kicking(and at the more subtle level,notices to both US and India to the effect that there are resourceful and very active parties interested in the strategic future of the region).It is to be noted here that the day after the Secy landed in New Delhi and while he was still there,there was another attack at the outskirts of Srinagar leaving 8 soldiers dead.

So far so good.But why should Assam Rifles troopers have to go an-eye-for-an-eye mode with Taliban,that too,at the outskirts of Imphal?

1)One plausible reason is that the Indian State resorted to an-eye-for-an-eye mode with the Taliban as a fitting countermove to a supposed move from the Grand Coalition against Nazism.

Here,again,we need a little backgrounder.

It's a common knowledge that Kashmiri rebel space is being increasingly dominated by the ones with Islamist hues,some being said to have direct link with the Taliban and Al Qaeda.Aside of their doctrinal hues,their defining characteristic is that they are rebelling agianst the Indian State.In this light,Manipur's rebels,by virtue of their having the same defining characteristic,have the legitimate right to have a direct understanding with their Kashmiri counterparts in the sphere of big picture game plan of attacking their common enemy.It's an attempt to try to understand the question by standing well inside the domain of the rebels but,nonetheless,a valid proposition.

But this does not mean that they have agreed upon their doctrinal and tactical spheres.Thus,the carnage in the Gilgit Batistan region should not be construed as being condoned by the Grand Caolition against Nazism and by some of the rebel groups of Manipur.

And it's exactly here at this point where the execution of the 6 cadres by the Assam Rifles tries to make its presence felt--they are trying to spin the carnage at Gilgit Batistan to drive home the message that the Grand Coaliton against Nazism,more specically,some of the Manipur's rebel groups,are hand-in-hand with Taliban and Al Qaeda.The Indian State,through its agency,the Asssam Rifles,goes into an-eye-for-an-eye mode with Taliban and Al Qaeda to spin the message that some of Manipur's rebels go down to the levels of Taliban and Al Qaeda.B E A U T I F U L!!

2) But the more sinister reason is to add fuel to the already burning hot rivalries amongsth rebel groups of Manipur.By reacting to an incident happened in far away Gilgit Batistan in Imphal within the space of 2 hours(indicating to all concerned the amount of resources deployed and the extent of planning involved)they want to send out this message to those rebel groups which are not part of the Grand Coalition against Nazism--'Look,we have to do all these stuffs because some of your fellow rebel groups have ths overarching reach to go as far as Gilgit Batistan!'.After these they want these rebel groups to infer like this--'Oh! No, we are being left behind'.If they reach this far,the Indian State wants to achieve,at the worst case scenario,the keeping of the fire of rivalry burning bright amongst the rebel groups of Manipur.At the best case scenario,the Indain State wants to sync with these particular rebel groups.They don't want to achieve this by meeting them physically and talking with them.But by means of a sphisticated game of tweaks and prods,just like the case of economists trying to control inflation by tweaks and prods.

Beautiful,this time no pun.Right now,in front of our own eyes,a sophisticatred mind game is being played out.

Prominent recent trend: The Kashmiri rebels are becoming more efficient militarily.My last post mentioned the killing of 4 soldiers in an ambush near Srinager.This time 8 soldiers were killed in an ambush at the outskirts of Srinagar itself.

Last words: Within the space 2 weeks the Indian Rupee plunged by more than a whopping 200 paisa touching nearly Rs 61 against the US Dollar.Can financials alone explain this?I don't think so.In my mind,wily invetors are beginning to factor in 'geo-politics'in India finance matters.

Saturday, June 01, 2013

Another 'homecoming' and one watershed mark?

No,I don't mean to say that the 'homecoming'in itself represents a watershed mark in the Manipuri society.

But the stoic silence maintained by the Manipuri rebel groups as a response to the 'homecoming' might represent a watershed.

Manipur's rebel groups regularly collect huge amounts of 'donations',dictact do's and don'ts to whoever they it deem fit,even dish out death sentences,so on and so forth.All these are possible because they self-proclaim themselves to be the vanguard leading the people towards the revolution.They are so succesful in muscleiing in their presence in the Manipuri society that all the agencies of the Indian state including its military are made to stand up and watch all these proceedings from the sidelines.

But for the past one week a typical newspaper reader like me who tries to piece together all the publicly available patterns has been harassed by a very confusingly complete yet all the more meaningful silence from the part of the rebel groups vis a vis the 'homecoming'.Vanguards are supposed to be a proactive leaders but Manipur's self-proclaimed vanguards even fail to react to a very significant move from the the quarters of counter-insurgency agencies.

Does the past one week tell us that we are witnessing a watershed?

Do all the publicly available patterns point to the 'homecoming' day as the day one of the long road to obsolescence for the rebel groups?

Talking of publicly available patterns,as the 'homecoming' party was being organized in this tiny valley,there was a surprisingly deathly attack on the military in another valley on the North-westernmost border,leaving 4 soldiers death.

Is this a discernible pattern or just a coincidence?

Again,on the following day,there was another uncharacteristically deathly attack on the architect of a state-sponsored armed vigilante group,this one in the very heartland.

Is this another of those discernible pattern or just a freak coincidence?

But as someone who is constantly trying to check his emotions from clouding the patterns as they emerge,I completely fail to guard myself against the impact of another of those critical strategic missteps.This is making me sad.Now is just the right time to dig out old copies of the autobiography of Winston Churchill and go straight to the chapters where he told us about his lonely crusade against the appeasement of Nazi Germany.On the hindsight,we now know that this dour figure was the only soul left standing who was perceptive enough to decode the danger of appeasing the Nazis thus saving the Western Civilization as we see today from the brink of being overwhelmed by Nazi Germany.

C'mon,folks,appeasement means self-destruction in slow motion.

by the meltingpot

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Now at 2nd place

This is the 3rd