A warning for Mr Narendra Modi

I think Mr Kiren Rijiju,the juniour home minister,was intructed to play games in the surcharged political situation in Manipur.

First,in his visit in Imphal during the recent floods and landslides,he told the media that the Manipur government has the legitimate right to pass laws to protect its indigenious people.He further told the media that the Union Government,if the need arises,is ready to work together with the state government.

But,after some weeks,he,during an official function in Guwahati, played around with the words,'President's Rule',while the Manipur Chief Minister was busy negotiating with the leaders of the agitators.

That prompted the Manipur Chief Minister to rush to New Delhi.What has transpired between Mr Rijiju and the Manipur Chief Minister in New Delhi?

We are not given the time to search for the answer for the above question.Today,the State Government announced that the three bills to protect its indigenous people will be passed by the State Legislative Assembly on the 31st of August 2015.The announcement came after the government accepted all the ten demands of the agitators.

Here we are talking about some ministers from New Delhi playing games in the internal politics of Manipur exactly because India's polity  is unitary.Noises about federalism are meant solely for propaganda purpose.

Here,again,we do not have enough time to go deeper into the matter,as we are overtaken by events around us.The person manning the unitary system in New Delhi has already got his home turf burning.Rigiht now,there is curfew and military patrolling in the state of Gujarat.

Is this a warning for Mr Narendra Modi?

Before answering this,we need to understand what's happening right now in Gujarat.The Patels want reservation.They want the OBC tag.But the Patels,though not an ethnic group,are landowners and traders.They do not form a marginalised group.Even a Patel is the incumbent Chief Minsiter of the state.So,why there is this present agitation by the Patels,which results in cuefew and military patrolling?

Exactly because India's polity is unitary.The Patels want more freebies from the masters in New Delhi.The Patels are not the only group who are clamouring for more freebies from the masters in New Delhi.The Chief Mnisters of major states like Bihar and Andhra Pradesh has already joined the fray.

In the days where there are nervous volatality in the stock markets of the world,it's most appropriate to ask this question:How would the masters in New Delhi get the freebies to be doled out to the increasing number of groups?Freebies doled out to the small ethnic groups in NE is quite manageable because the amount required is quite small.But managing freebies for large populations of likes of Gujarat,Bihar,Andhra Pradesh etc would prove to be a paradigm shift for the people manning the unitary set up in New Delhi.

It's a matter of simple economics to understand that New Delhi cannot continue printing money in the longer term.In the shorter term it can print more money and fuel more economic activities.The idea is to somehow put money in the hands of the vast rural population of India and make them buy up things.This would enable more factory activities,spurring more production and job creations.The example is the vast enterprise of handing out 'job cards' to the rural folks.

But there is one catch.While it's still possible to print more money,it's a must to build up durable infrastructures like roads,irrigation canals,schools and unversitry.But a society which have no qualm in killing girl child in the womb itself and forcing underaged girls into marriages won't be able to build up any of the above infrastures.So,while it's possible for India to print more money,it's totally critical to build up quality huamn capital as well.I think India's society have limited time to achieve this--but it would require unlimited amoount efficiendy in the system(like the one provided by the Communist Party of China).

But the likes of present agitations in Gujarat are the sure recipe for injecting massive inefficiecy in the system.So,what's the option available to the people manning the unitary set up in New Delhi?

1)They can say that they cannot afford the freebies to be doled out to the vast numbers of agitating groups.So,let's get rid of this unitary set up.

2)They can also say that they would continue to print more money to get more freebies so that they can lord over the present unitary set up.

Mr Narendra Modi would get the chance to show the world which option he chooses when the Manipur Legislative Assemby pass the three bills to protect the indigenous people of Manipur on the 31st August 2015.

If he chooese the options no 1,the three bills would become laws.

If he chooses the option no 2,the three bills would remain worthless papers.

But Mr Narendra Modi has already been warned by the present agitation in his home state of Gujarat that printing more money(thus, India becoming a pauper state) presents no smart choice for the vast ordinary people of India.

Today is a historic day

Sensex at the Bombay Srock Exchange crashed 1624 points.This is the 3rd largest single day loss in the whole life of the BSE.In a single day,the Exchange snubbed away Rs 7 lakh crores of investors' money.

Rs 7 lakh crore is a huge money,which can be so conveniently used for 'development'.What do you say,Dr Jitendra Singh?(my last post).

History was also made in New Delhi on the day sensex crashed 1624 points.The Prime Minister,the Home Minister and the Finance Minister  graced the same function in New Delhi today.The function was to release the commemorative coins to mark the year long 100th birthday celebration of Rani Gidinliu.Anybody can easily see that they were trying to send out a very significant message.(They,on purpose, timed the function just one day before the 'Consultation on the Indo-Naga Accord' in Dimapur--Showing us that they are actively aiming for turmoil in Manipur)

Has the stock crash  something to do with the message they are trying to send out?

The expanding concentric circles of war

We need to look back at the month of June.

Several powerful persons met the press so that they got reported on the 12th of June 2015.

For example,Dr Jitndra Singh,Minister of State at the Prime Minister's Office was in Imphal and met the press on the 11th.Interestingly,the press briefing was also attended by Mr R N Ravi,GOI interlocutor of Naga talk.

On the same day,Mr Rahul Gandhi,Vice President,Indian National Congress,the main opposition party of India,also me the press in New Delhi.

The main theme of both the press meet was the much-hyped Indian special soldiers' attack on the rebel camps in retaliation to the 4th June rebel ambush in Chandel district,Manipur.Of course,we read the reports of both the press meet on the 12th June newspapers.We must note that Dr Jitendra Singh's press briefing was characterized by his insistence that instances like the Paraolon ambush hindered development.

So,what's on 12th June 2015?

The Shanghai Composite,the bellwether Chinese Stock index crashed more than 30%.It was indeed a surreal sell off in the premiere Chinese stock market.Here,we must note Dr Jitendra Singh's insistence on development angle.Is there any better way of hindering China's development than by making the Shanghai Composite by more than 30%?Dr Jitendra Singh's Imphal press briefing was to serve as a warning to China.

Now,let's go to the 2nd of July,2015.

On this day also,the Shanghai Composite,despite the active intervention by Chinese government agencies,crashed again.It was indeed an abnormal crash.

So,what's on the 2nd of July,2015?

It's definite--I don't like to say this.But I cannot shirk my responsibility away.

The day before,the 1st of July,there was this blogpost of mine.It was the first published study of the constituent within the US society which is rooting  for an administration,more or less,in line with the one provided by the Communist Party of China to the citizens of the People's Republic of China.

So,did I just say that the 2nd of July crash of the Shanghai Composite was in response to the blogpost of mine?Well,this question makes me laugh!I'm just a regular guy,trying to blog about the happenings in my surroundings.It's well nigh impossible for a blopost of mine to elicit such huge response.

So,what did I say then?

Something actually happened in South Carolina which gave out the first hints of the existence of the hard-to-believe constituent within the US.My blogpost simply connected the dots in a published format.So,on the 2nd of July,the US retaliated by rigging the Shanghai Composite Index.My blogpost was nowhere in the picture.

As I was reading the charts of various companies on the NSE,India,I read the news of the crashes of the Shanghai Composite Index,as they were happening.The normal reactions to the crashes were that they were abnormal.I also suspected that there were some others factors besides economics that caused the crashes.I felt in my bone that the US was rigging the Shanghai Composite to reveal the real face of the administration of the Communist Party of China in the realm of the economic affairs of the Chinese society.Actually,the crashed show the inexperience of the Chinese society in matters of the stock exchange.

But I could not find a pattern to justify my gut feelings.Gut feelings are just gut feelings.I cannot write of my gut feeling without some plausible patterns to back it up.

Suddenly,on the 11th of August,the all important pattern materialized when the Chinese central bank devalued the Yuan thrice in three successive days.It started on the 11th of August and continue upto 13th August.13th of August?Although the 13th of August is an important date for us,we must not be fooled into believing that the Yuan devaluation hinted at something by wrapping up the devaluation on it.What it intends to hint at is reserved for two days later--the15th of August 2015.As usual there is the shutdown called by the rebels.Besides this,the ultimatum set by the current agitators expires on this day.

As we are acknowledging the above hints,we must also take note that it was an amazing sight.There is nothing economics in the devaluations.It is more like a declaration of war.Just a day after it,there was these mammoth blasts in Tinjian,killing nearly 100 people and injuring more than 500.

1)The Chinese have taken 'revenge' of the successive rigging of the Shanghai Composite by triggering heavy sell offs in all the stock exchanges of the world.(But,not by 30%!That the Shanghai Composite crashed by as much as 30% is mainly because of the inexperience of Chinese authorities in handling matters of financial markets.I think it's only just a year back that the Shanghai Composite was opened up to the outside investors.Before that it was tightly control by the Chinese government authorities.On the flip side,the American regulators have this huge practical experiences gained in the constant battles to fend off talented people trying the game the financial markets in the US.In short,they have this huge know how to rig a stock exchanges).

2)The Chinese are challenging all the competing nations for a currency war.

So,the Paraolon ambush,a hard -to-believe constituent within the US society, the carnage in the Shanghai Composite Index and an open challenge for a currency war--what to make out of all these?

We are witnessing the expanding concentric circles of war from the epicentre.

Where are our leaders?

A day after the former chief of Federal Investigative Agency revealed that 26/11 Bombay attackers were trained in Sindh,Pakistan,one Pakistani national,who,together with a colleague ambushed an Indian paramilitary convoy inside Kashmir,was caught alive.

What to make out of this?

In a single word--planned.The above events form a part of a carefully planned episode.

They are asking India--would you dare to have an active Western front?

They are so brazen as they know well that India cannot afford to have an active Western front at the moment.Why?Because they also know quite well that India's Eastern front is about to get active sooner than later.

Now,come to the epicenttre of India's Eastern front--Imphal.Imphal is now in tumult as its residents,together with the whole citizens of Manipur,come to their slow realization that they are being doomed with the silent influx of vast numbers of people of mainland India.They know that their society would become untenable withn decades,if the current influx is not checked.

As an intrument to check this influx they would most likely get an appropriate legislative tool.To my mind,the Manupr Legislative Assemby would soon approve the legislative bill.But for the bill to become a law,it would need the assent of either the Governor of Manipur or the President of India.Sadly,the dynamics of India's politics dictate that the all important assent won't be forthcoming.

In such a scenario,the whole populace of Manipur would slowly get mad waiting for the elusive assent to the bill.The ever active rebels of Manipur would seize the momemt realizing that they are most likely facing an inflection point in the historical journey of the Manipuri people.To get the line of the inflection point curving towards their point of view,they might present the Manipuri people with a military quagmire along the Manipur-Burma border.As the people is getting mad,questioning New Delhi's sincerity,the rebels might lead New Delhi's military into a quagmire.Such a quagmire would show,without any shred of doubt,the capability or the streght of New Delhi's military.

How would the people of Manipur react to such a quagmire?If New Delhi's military is pinned down in a quagmire,would the people of Manipur still continue to beg for the all important assent to their legislative bill?

I truthfully believe that this is one of the possible scenarios which are coming to our society in the next couple of months.

There is also one very possible scenario.To my mind,the descendents of Chanakya are actually aiming for this particular scenario.

Suppose New Delhi's military pretend to walk into the quagmire planned by the rebels of Manipur.This might possibly happen in New Lazang sector along Manipur-Burma border.This does not mean that they won't carry out their surgical strike along Moreh-Tamu sector(my next last post).It's reasonale to think that they would first carry out the surgical strike along Moreh-Tamu sector.The nature of the attack dictates that they would quickly wiihtdraw to their base in Moreh.Then,they would continue their regular attacks on rebel positions along New Lazang sector.

In this scenario,we can visualize regular fightings between New Delhi's military with one particular rebel group of Manipur.

This will put immense pressure on the remaining rebel groups to do something.If they don't come out with a plausible explanation to the people of Manipur about their responses to the newly developing scenario,it would be suicidal for them.

With the scar of the surgical strike still fresh, this moounting pressure to do something might prove to be too much for some rebel groups.They would have no choice but to go deeper inside  Burmese territory to set up their bases afresh.

If they choose this option,they are walking straight into a trap,so carefully laid by New Delhi.

With this option,they would come in direct contact with a particular ethnic group which is also in a dominant position along Southern moountain ranges of Manipur.Now,New Delhi would instigate the leaders of the ethnic group to carry out provocative actions against the Manipuri rebel groups.The provocations would be cunningly planned that the enraged cadres of the rebel groups within the territory of Manipur would be forced to attack the fellow ethnic members along the Southern mountain ranges of Manipur.

Actually,I think great geo-political forces are in active work to unobtrusively lead some rebel groups of Manipur to carry out ethnic cleansing along the Southern mountain ranges of Manipur.

It's very crucial moment in the history of Manipuri people.We are looking for a great leadership.

Where are our leaders?