by the meltingpot: July 2016

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Indeed, what is at work in the recent return of realism is the revenge of geography in the most old-fashioned sense. In the 18th and 19th centuries, before the arrival of political science as an academic specialty, geography was an honored, if not always formalized, discipline in which politics, culture, and economics were often conceived of in reference to the relief map. Thus, in the Victorian and Edwardian eras, mountains and the men who grow out of them were the first order of reality; ideas, however uplifting, were only the second.
And yet, to embrace geography is not to accept it as an implacable force against which humankind is powerless. Rather, it serves to qualify human freedom and choice with a modest acceptance of fate. This is all the more important today, because rather than eliminating the relevance of geography, globalization is reinforcing it. Mass communications and economic integration are weakening many states, exposing a Hobbesian world of small, fractious regions. Within them, local, ethnic, and religious sources of identity are reasserting themselves, and because they are anchored to specific terrains, they are best explained by reference to geography. Like the faults that determine earthquakes, the political future will be defined by conflict and instability with a similar geographic logic. The upheaval spawned by the ongoing economic crisis is increasing the relevance of geography even further, by weakening social orders and other creations of humankind, leaving the natural frontiers of the globe as the only restraint.
So we, too, need to return to the map, and particularly to what I call the “shatter zones” of Eurasia. We need to reclaim those thinkers who knew the landscape best. And we need to update their theories for the revenge of geography in our time.
Here is the link for the whole write up.

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My view is that relations between countries in the coming decades are most likely to reflect their cultural commitments, their cultural ties and antagonism with other countries rather than other factors. Quite obviously, power will continue to play a central role in global politics, as it always does. But usually there is something else behind conflicts. In the 18th century in Europe, the issues to a large extent involved questions of monarchy versus the emerging republican movements, first in America and then in France. In the 19th century, it involved states identifying themselves through nationalism. In the 20th century, ideology came to the fore, largely, but not exclusively, as a result of the Russian Revolution. We had fascism, communism and liberal democracy competing with each other. Well, that’s pretty much over. Liberal democracy has come to be accepted, in theory at least, around the world, if not always in practice. So the question really is what will be the central focus of global politics in the coming decades? My argument remains that cultural identities, antagonisms and affiliations will not only play a role, but play a major role in relations between states. The full interview is here.

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Every citizen in the City of Richardson will be able to access 756 Kbps of internet connectivity for free, from anywhere in the city. They will be able to access the internet from their homes, schools, restaurants and parks using standard wi-fi connections which are now installed on almost every notebook computer. That is almost as fast as many so-called high speed broadband connections that one pays dearly for today, and several times faster than the various hotspots at your local coffee shops. And I should note that the tax-payers of the City of Richardson are not paying one penny for this, and in fact are going to see additional revenues as a benefit. ... At the beginning of this letter, I suggested that this would be one of the fastest worldwide rollouts of a technology ever seen. It was just 20 years ago that the first cellular systems were being built. The rollout for mesh wireless systems is going to make that look slow. There are several reasons I make this assertion. But they all center on the facts that installing mesh systems will be cheaper and easier than any previous system and the economics in both the developed and especially the developing world will be so radically compelling. Throw in the fact the any astute politician will want to be at the front of this parade (They will all want to say, "I was the man who helped bring free internet to everyone!") and the groundwork is laid for rapid deployment. In Richardson and elsewhere, MeshLinx is offering the basic infrastructure for free. This avoids all the time consuming, political budget battles in the cities. When a service is offered for free, much of the mandated competitive process is eliminated. Next is the low cost of installation of the system. As noted above, Richardson is a city of roughly 100,000 people living in 27.4 square miles. It will "only" cost about $2,000,000 today to lay the wireless blanket I mentioned above. It will cost a great deal less in the future, as MeshLinx is building the pods at a pace of 100 a month today. The maximum output of the US pilot assembly line is 500 a month. When the demand exceeds this (and it will in a very short time) discussions have been held to move volume production to China. Of course, the world will need tens of millions of pods. The cost for a pod will be a fraction of today's cost, with that installation number for a city like Richardson soon being half (or less) the cost of today. What does that $1 or 2 million get you? The infrastructure to be an internet connection, telephone, security, entertainment provider and a whole lot more company. As noted, it will get cheaper as the number of pods being made each month rises, thus lowering their costs dramatically. This technology does have scale. The cost of physically putting up a pod is not a large part of the equation, as you simply need to run a power line, attach a few bolts to a mount on the side of a building or light pole and then off to the next point. Think about the 40,000 homes and businesses in Richardson. If and (hopefully) over time when 10% decide to pay $50 a month for 10-20 Mbps high speed internet access you could see a revenue of $2.5 million a year just from internet access. Now add in all the other income possibilities (phone, entertainment, security and don't forget advertising revenue on the free service!). Think about your town or country. What would service like this be worth? If you are a small city that does not have high speed connections available, how many businesses that could bring jobs do not come your way because they need reliable communications for their work and their employees? If you are in a developing country, where internet access is difficult and expensive, it will open whole new vistas. Couple that with the various programs which want to give cheap laptops to kids in poor countries, and you could see significant social progress in a generation. Here is the link.

Monday, July 04, 2016

Artificial land demands---Manipur and South China Sea.

The 3rd of July is an important day for the Manipuris.It was on this day,fifteen years ago,when the anarchic political situation forced the disparate CSOs to come together under a loosely-held umbrella platform.The entity was named the United Committee,Manipur.

Exactly twenty days ahead of the 3rd July 2001,the Government of India signed an accord with a Naga rebel group,which,in its various clauses,had the seed for the tearing up of Manipur.That seed was immediately perceived to be foreign and artificial within the organic health of the State of Manipur.So,there was this total uprising on the 18th June 2001.

In other words,there was an artificial demand for geographical space within the organic whole of Manipur which the Government of India had acceded to in Bangkok.The uprising of the 18th June forced the Government of India to annul a particular clause in the Accord.But the Government of India,again,signed,last year,another agreement with the same rebel group.The agreement was christened as the Framework Agreement,whose clauses have been kept secret.

Even the Chief Minster of Manipur has not able,despite his several forays to New Delhi,to have a glimpse of the closely-guarded clauses.

This proves that the Government of India sees in the clauses of the agreement enormous geo-political values.In other words,India was quick to size up the enormous geo-political values contained in the artificial demand for a geographical space within the organic whole of the State of Manipur.

Seen in this light,is it still difficult to decode the geo-political reason why China is building up artificial islands in the South China Sea and staking its claim of sovereignty over them?

We need to have a fresh look at the present day status in the South China Sea.Let's choose the starkest possible one.China is claiming the island which is only 150 km from the shores of the Philippines but is,at least,some 1000 kms away from the nearest Chinese shore.Is it reasonable?

Let's try to answer this with another hot question.

Is it reasonable for the ethnic communities residing in the Northern and the Southern mountain ranges of Manipur to make their artificial demands for 90% of landmass of Manipur over which they want to install their own administrative states,tearing up the present-day organic whole of Manipur?

So,seen from the perspective of the present-day political situation in Manipur,China need not answer any question arising out of the artificial islands disputes in the South China Sea.

Now,let's come to realpolitik.

There is already the Framework Agreement,whose secret clauses has not been made known even to the democratically elected Chief Minister of the full-fledged State of the Union of India.There is a strong possibility that India might go official in publicly announcing the clauses of the Framework Agreement on the 13th of July,2016.This blog effortlessly comes to a date,ie 13th of July partly because the number 13 has attained some significant narrative in this blog,for which there are many number recent posts.Another important reason is that the International Court of Arbitration,in pursuant of a petition by the Philippiness,would announce its verdict on the 12th of July,2016.It's widely believed that the verdict will go against China's claim over the disputed islands in the South China Sea.This views has been re-enforced by the news that China is starting military exercises inside the disputed part of the South China Sea around the time the verdict is expected.

If India actually makes the announcement on the 13th of July,2016,what will the Manipuris do?

Burning down yet another brand-new Legislative Assembly building?

Boycotting and roughening up their democratically elected MLAs and Minsters?

Creating widespread anarchy,hurting themselves?

These are the paths already traversed in 2001.Last year's Framework Agreement shows us in no uncertain terms that those paths only succeeded in the postponing the issue for some 15 years.We need to look for a permanent fix for the problem.

Should we go to New Delhi?

If we choose that path we would certainly be confronted with Article 3 of the Constitution of India.The recent sad story of the Telegus also tells us that there is no point in confronting Article 3 in the context of a determined ruling class in New Delhi.

So, what option the Manipuri people have in the present juncture?

The answer--South China Sea.

Just as the Manipuris are being rendered optionless inside a box called Manipur as a result of artificial demands for lands by the cronies of New Delhi,there might be a regional war in the South China Sea caused by disputes over artificial islands.The immediate impact would be felt by shipping sector passing through the crucial South China Sea lane.India's oil supply comes mostly passing through this sea lane.In the advent of a regional war over the area,the supply of oil and gas to India would be greatly disrupted.

In a sense,this would be an Imphal-Dimapur Road on an international scale.

Artificial demands for lands might bring the spectre of a blockaded Imphal-Dimapur Road all over the Indian Sub-continent.

by the meltingpot

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This is the 3rd