Geo-politics,the charade and the blogger

Blogging is all about enthusiasm.

But I hate publishing this post.That's why I'm doing this on 31st Dec--like the last day of the year,this must be the last of such posts.

As a matter of fact,I've been debating with myself whether to write this post or not since the middle of Oct.Because I know anybody who happens to read this post would surely term me as megalomaniac.

The story began on the 15th of Oct 2012.

The strangest news on that day was that they were announcing the near fruitiion of their 15-years running peace talk by ambushing another rebel group at Ashang khullen.Celebrating the coming peace by attacking another armed group? I said to myself--'It's strange'.

Reading further,I again murmured to myself--'It's becoming all the more staranger'.Because the tone was unmistakble--they seemed to be eerily happy with themselves in announcing that they lost one man when those at the receiving ends retaliated.Strange!strange!!

The announcement came from Dimapur.

Then,I moved to my iGoogle tab(I've completely migrated online for my news).Scrolling down,I came to my Gmail inbox.It made me startled--unusual and strange mails there.I read exactly two of them and then,started deleting all mails received on 14th night and 15th morning.

I immediately knew this--

--Some sophististicated minds were trying to read the pattern of this blog's reaction to the strange news vis a vis the reaction of the ambushed rebel group in Ashang Khullen--

In other words,the power that be in New Delhi was trying to ascertain whether it could get a slightest of the clues to the profiles of the players constituting the Manipuri components of the Grand Coalition against Nazism.

That they had to go down all the way to micro-managing their search to the level of such obscure blog of mine points to an intersting thing--The Indian state seems genuinely clueless about the Manipuri society as defined by its history and its geo-political reach,leave alone having a crude profiles of the actual players.

Sitting there in front of my computer,a sense of spookiness overwhelmed me--'Is it really happening to me?'

But still the hardest part of the impact of the  whole story upon this blogger unveiled itself after the passage of some 7/8 weeks.For this poor blogger this is still the hardest part but I need to break the silence.

--The announcement by the Home Minsiter,sushil Kumar Shinde that the Naga Issue was nearing solution,most probably by March 2013 which provoked massive euphoria in Naga psyche and equally downbeat mood in the whole of Manmipuri Society WAS ACTUALLY A CHARADE ORCHESTRATED FOR THE SOLE PURPOSE OF READING THE ABOVE-MENTIONED PATTERNS--

I know this is the sure recipe for people calling me a megalomaniac.

The story this far wraps up drama involving my blog(yeah,this blogger sure is a megalomaniac!) and the Indian state vis a vis Manipuri society as defined by its history and it geo-political reach.Whatever attributes people try to tag with to this blog(like,written by a megalomaniac??),it should be emphasized here that it is purely a personal thing--nothing more,nothing less.Being that so,whatever drama involving it should have been completely benign and harmless.

But New Delhi did lose control of the charade somewhere along the way.

Manipur Chief Minsiter,Mr Okram Ibobi,unaware that all those dramas are simple charade,thought that he was about to be forced to make unacceptable(to Manipuri society) concessions for the coming final Naga solution,played out his last cards.He dodged off coming summons from the big shots in Delhi by sojourning to Australia for full 20 days,which amounts to direct revolt by a provincial satrap.It's to be noted here that it was an unthinkable act by a chief minister in the set up of 'high command'culture of Congress party.Consequent events showed us that the beginning of the sidelining of the Manipur CM was already initiated.

And,it happened not be just a  simple and internal affair between the Chief Minister and the Congress party.It's apparent that middle rung cadres of NSCN(IM) did notice Ibobi's revolt and likely schism between between him and the power that be in New Delhi.They correctly read that there would be power vacuum because of this schism,which would make it possible to plan a tragedy like the public molestation of a popular Manipuri film actress in Chandel.Is this the outcome of the fervent imaginations of a fertile and sordid (and megalomaniacal?) mind?But do anybody think the central leadership of Swu and Muivah would stoop that low?I don't think so.Then?

The most likely scenario is the forcing of the agendas of the middle rung cadres on the already desperate leadership of Swu and Muivah.I think that has already taken place.

Again,it was destined not to be a simple and internal affars of NSCN(IM).Unwittingly,this middle rung cadres has been successful in forcing thier agenda on the equally desparate power that be in New Delhi,which,it turns out to be far more clueless about Manipuri society as defined by its history and its geo-political reach.They seemed to be a bit surprise but more importantly,seemed ever ready to be forced upon itself to welcome the unlikely turn of events.They seemed to be excited by the outward facade of this 'sudden turn of events'ie the scenario of valley-hill ethnic clash but they seemed to be completely clueless about its underlying force ie the unprincipled forcing of their agenda by the middle rung cadres.

The cascading effects of the impulsive acts by this middle rung cadres are likely to go far beyond this.They are most likely to make history in the sense that they are breathtakingly nearing to disturb the equalibrium attained in the Imphal valley by the overlap of two great geo-political forces.The current equilibrium is being maintained by the political space occupied by the stakeholders like Ibobi,who happen to have the minimum moral authority to just enable to churn the wheel of the State.These middle rung cadres are in the process of accentuating the complete banishment of the equalibrium-enabling political space defined by the stakeholders like Ibobi.This will lead to enevitable disturbance of the current equilibrium.That,in turn, will result in fresh re-positionings of the two great geo-political forces for fresh seeking of another equilibrium.

It is in this fresh re-positionings that we are likely to see geo-political high dramas in the coming months and years.

Bodoland,Gaza and Barack Obama

I feel good that both the news of Bodoland and Gaza come to our focus almost simultaneously that too,during the India visit of Aung San Suu Kyi and only a few days to go for the first ever visit of a US President to Burma.

I am feeling good because the news whet my curiosity to ask the following questions:

1)When we talk of a new front in the Middle East(my last post),is Gaza the real frontline?

2)Is there any co-relation between Gaza and Bodoland?

Unknown to us,the similarity between Bodoland and Gaza is striking.Both are hemmed in by forces of great geo-political forces so much so that they are both staring at their owns demises,that too,in their own homelands.

In Gaza's case,the strongest force is the emergence of the notion of Zionism and the consequent materialization of the State of Israel.This force literally puts a noose around the neck of inhabitants of Gaza,the Palestinians.

In Bodoland's case,the similar force is the emergence of the notion of Indian nationhood and the consequent materialization of the State of India.This force also puts a noose around the neck of the inhabitants of the Bodoland,the Bodos.

We need to remind ourselves that these all happened almost simultaneously around the time when the crumbling of British Empire started.

In my humble opinion,the Bodo leaders should quickly make sense of the cyclical application of great geo-political force right now in their own homeland(as is seen in the sudden elevation of their homeland at the same league as that of Gaza).They then should make a quick trip to Burma during Barack Obama's visit and make a representation to him.They should say to him--'We are dying in our own homeland'.

If that happens to be the case of the pre-mature forcing of the hands of the Bodo leaders,then,we should at least hope that Barack Obama,in planning such an unconventional State visit,should also break taboos and try to ask this question:

--Is there any co-relation between Bodoland and Gaza?--

Another front:Where the US ambassador to Libya was the first casualty.

The Grand Coalition against Nazism has just opened a brand-new front in what the Western World called the Middle East.

The brand-new front,as a continuation of the ongoing moves(as detailed in my past several posts),is meant to act as a counterpoise to the India-proposed front in the South China Sea.

The moment the brand-new front was formed,we saw the amazing alacrity with which the various players moved in to take their respective positions.The US ambassador to Libya was killed.There were massive demonstration in all capitals of the Muslim countries.Iran openly calls fof the elimination of the Jewish State.Nearer home,Pakistan even declared a national holiday on a Friday for the purpose of staging protest,in which 29 people were killed.

Evidently,US was completely taken by surprise.

How can I say that a brand-new front was formed in the Middle East by the Grand Coalition against Nazism? I will list the following indicators.

1)The strongest indicator,of course,emanated from Beijing.

Mr Xi Jinping,who is going to take over the President of China in a few weeks time,suddenly disappeared from public from around 1st of September 2012.When his disappearance entered 2nd week,there were speculations in all the capitals of the countries in the world that there was power struggle in Beijing and there might not be smooth transfer of power from the incumbent,Mr Hu Jintao to the presumptive candidate in line,Mr Xi Jinping.

That would be a development of huge significance for the world politics.

But Mr Xi Jinping did reappear in public when his disappearance was about to enter the 3rd week.What is most significant is that he timed his reappearance with the emergence of the obscure video film called "The Innocence of Islam" and the first glimpses of protest in Arab streets.

Mr Xi Jinping let it be known to all concerned that China,together with the Grand Coalition against Nazism,had just opened a brand-new front in what the Western World called the Middle East.

2)There followed moves by various interested parties with amazing speeds.The most significant and the most condemn-able move was the violation of the sanctity of an embassy(in this case,consulate)and killing of the US ambassador to Libya,Mr Chris Stevens.

The immediate response from the US President was the declaration that 'justice will be done' and the quick despatch of 2 destroyers and 50 marines to the Libyan waters.When they reached the Libyan coast,they sent out drones to look for the suspects.As the central authority is still weak(aftermath to the depose of Gaddafi),several militia groups are still controlling the periphery( like Bengazhi,where the ambassador was killed).These militia groups had had field days at firing anti-aircraft guns to take down those US drones.So much so that the authority in Tripoli had to close the Libyan airspace.

Then,suddenly,an amazing thing happened.

Ms Susan Rice,the US ambassador to the UN,brushing aside the destroyers,the marines and the drones,announced that the ambassador Stevens was killed in the course of a spontaneous protest in Benghazhi.She personally appeared at FOX news and NBC to announce this.While she was in those networks,the Libyan Prsident.Mr Mohmad el-Megarif,himself was on ABC and CBC to apologize to the American public for the killing of the ambassador Stevens,which,according to him,was the handiwork of a particular militia group.Ambassador Rice was openly and publicly contradicting the Libyan president himself--that too,live on air!That borders on hilarity!

My point:US needs not less the person of its ambassador to the UN to kick in the damage control exercise(meaning deploying the marines and the drones would certainly enlarge the just formed front,which would  certainly make US look foolish to the world).

3)This is the weakest indicator because I'm trying to find the source by first sizing up the efffect.

It's usual for the US to immediately jump  into the middle whenever there were verbal or otherwise,spat between China and Vietnam or between China and Japan.

But this past week,when China literally tested the water by sending marine boats within the territorial waters of the disputed islands,there were marked silence from the US side.

This clearly shows that US was currently busy in sizing up the just formed front in the Middle East.

The Achilles heels for the US foreign policy has always been what they called the Middle East.The emergence of the new front is changing the already volatile space with new insurmountable equation for the US.We are currently witnessing Iran's ongoing efforts to channelize the simmering volatility into a Zionism vs Islam paradigm.This paradigm is totally and completely unacceptable not only to US but also to the whole Western World because that would be tantamount to officially accepting that the Western Civilization is at war with Islam.

The US and the entire Western World,would deploy all its resources and time to avert the emergence of this paradigm.

But as soon as the US tries to stretch its already thin resources in trying to open the India-proposed front in the South China Sea,Iran,with all the Hezbollahs and Salafis of the world,would relentlessly try to arrive at the paradigm.

The most likely scenario that would follow is that US would be able to find lesser and lesser time and resources for India and India-proposed front in the South China Sea.

With this newly formed front,in my humble opinion,all the pieces are finally in their places in the Chessboard.What we are waiting for is the first move.

Personally,I will welcome,not one but several initial moves,which will mark the beginning of the destruction of the Nazism from our neighbourhood.

I hate Nazism with all my heart.

A new front

From the start,I suspected that Pakistani strategic thankers had quickly got wind of the emergence of the Grand Coalitionagainst Nazism(my last post) and propmtly started dovetailing its own moves with that of the Coalition to chip away at themorale of not only of the Indian military but also of its whole populace.

My suspicion was vindicated when IB suddenly announced that Dawood Ibrahim gang was behind the recent Mumbai riot in Azad Maidan.The IB announcemnet came just one day before the Indian External Affairs Minister's visit to Pakistan.In my mind,Dawood Ibrahim gang is a scapegoat so that the Indian External Affairs Minsiter,currently in a 3-day visit to Pakistan,can make the first move to wean Pakistan away from working in tandem with the Grand Coalition against Nazism.The changed tone and tenor of the visiting Indian Minister already bear testinomy to this emerging Indian move.

But coming to our core point--Chipping away at the morale of not only of the India's military but also of the whole populace? How?

To answer this question,we need to look at 2 points:

1)The first is a man named Abu Jundal.In my mind,Abu Juindal himself made several moves so that he got arrested by Indian intelligence agency.Once arrested,he made it sure that he made a confession before a magistrate so that the direct involvement of the Pakistani military in the 11/26 Mumbai attack was recorded under the official seal of the Indian legal system.

At this point,won't the ordinary Indian citizen start asking the following question?

--What actions are we taking up?

Once this question atart creeping inside the head of the vast Indian ordinary people,their morale will start the downward slide.

2)In noting the above point it's reasonable to infer that its one of those selective readings of the recent events by an opinionated blogger.

To defend my point,I would like to revisit one important event some years down the line--the crushing military defeat of the LTTE in Sri Lanka.Pakistan not only supplied military hardware but also stationed senior military officers on the battlefield itself to advise the Sri Lankan military.

Why?

The Pakistani strategic thnkers were working ont the calculation that if LTTE was given a crushing military defeat in Sri Lanka,they would not any other option but to shift their base to Tamil Nadu,India.This would result in a 'hotspot'in South India,besides NE and J&K.

In that scenario,the morale of the whole populace of India would nosedive.

In this light,Abu Jundal arrest is a continuation of a long term moves by Pakistani strategic thinkers.In my mind,Indian intelligence agencies have no capability to arrest a man like Abu Jundal--they have not been able to lay their hands on criminals like Dawood Ibrahim,Chhota Shakeel etc.It's now clear that Pakistani strategic thinkers made Abu Jundal got himself arrested by the Indian agencies.

At this juncture,as if on cue,a Chinese General,together with a planeload of military personnel,all in full military regalia,descended on Mumbai!

But is this visit anything to do with our core proposition--'chipping away at the morale of not only India's military but also of the whole populace'?

To answer this we need to confront this seemingly innocous yet certainly topical and profound question--

-Is the Indian people's infantile pleasure derived out of the open and public derision of 'Chinky'the symptom of the thousand years of the repression of the fear of the 'kiratas'(thus bringing it up to our notice the chronic-for-thousands-of-years and hence irreconcilable mistrust between the two) ?

As is wont of an opionated blogger I will stick my neck out and say that the answer to the above question is a resounding 'yes'.And,this is crucial,the Chinese seems to have a surprisingly accurate reading of this subconscious profile of Indian mind.

That's why they were trying to impart a visual impact of the 'kratas'in full military regalia on the already unsettled Indian minds,brought about by the violence in Azad Maidan and the subsequesnt exodus of NE people,which was more like a exodus of refugees from a war zone.At this point,it's reasonable to say I'm dangerously veering towards the mind of a conspiracy theorist.To defend myself,I'll note down the following points:

a)The duration of Gen Liang Guanglie's visit is in itself intriguing.5 days by a planeload of military men!Do they need full 5 dyas to meet AK Antony and say that they were all mnrnalising ties with India?Surprise,Surprise!!

b)Why there was a blanket blackout of the General's visit by the INdian media?Is this the case of Indian mind subconsciously trying to hide its innate fear(of the 'kiratas')?

c)Outwardsly,Gen Liang's visit have all the posture of just another routine visit.But it is not.Almost simultaneously,they had sent Gen Jiang's deputy,Cai Yingting,to US and another of his deputy,Ma Xiaotian,to Vietnam.Here we need to remind ourselves that Chinese Army is the only remaining army on the world which is trained to fight the US army.And,Vietnam is currently embroiled in a high pitch spat with China in the South China Sea and it's one of the very few countries in the world which was needed to be 'taught a lesson' by China in a not distant past.Almost simultaneous vists by 3 Generals in 3 different countries!Is there a coded message in those visits?

d)While Gen Liang was in India US Secy of State,Ms Hillary clinton suddenly materialized in Beijing to talk about the need of a code of conduct in South China Sea.Was there another coded message in Ms Clinton's visit?Is this the correct way of deciphering the coded message--China has an emerging military front at its doorstep in South China Sea an dit should not even start thinking opening another front elsewhere?If it's the correct rendering of the coded message,we all saw Ms Clinton appropriately snubbed by the Chinese Mandarins.Mr Xi Jingping,the President in waiting cancelled a meeting(scheduled for the following day) at around midnight and refused to meet her.Well,it seems there were surfeit of coded messges in our region at this point of time!

e)But,wait,we are not dne yet!Here is another remakable coded message!!Gen Liang,at the conclusion of his visit,gave Rs 50,000/-each to the two IAF pilots manning the aircraft ferrying him in his visit!!!Do we need to say anything about this episode?It's quite clear Gen Liang was opening mocking at the military estblishment of India.

In my personal level,I'm sure it will be exhilirating to watch how the children opf chanakya go about to checkmate the flagrant and work-in-progress moves 'to chip away at the morale of not only its military but also of his whole populace'.

The shift to military option and how it might unfold.

I believe that Indian State has shifted to military option(The stories of other options are told in my last several posts).

I also strongly believe that India will attempt surgical strikes on Manipuri rebel camps inside Burmese territories.I'll come on this later in this post.

The strongest indicator for this shift came from distant Washington.Barrack Obama,in an epochal shift in US military doctrine,announced that they are scaling back in Europe and focusing in Asia to show that they are a Pacific power.Later on,we also saw the demurred acceptance of China for 'constructive' US presence in Asia.

In my mind,this epochal shift in US policy is mostly the result of intense Indian lobbying(though ackwoledging that US has its own strong interst in keeping the status quo in Asia,particularly South Asia).

The doctrine behind Indian lobbying is mostly likely to be this:Against the looming US military presence,China might cease to be active in the Grand Coaltion Against Casteist Imperialism(last update of my last post) resulting in maintaining the status quo in South Asia.

But India cannot bring about this epochal US shift solely by the above doctrine alone--it must also bring somethng on the table.It's mostly likely that,on its part,India would inflct a back-breaking military blow to Manipuri rebels(who are the active members of the Grand Coalition).

It's dizzying for me to note in real time that the Indian miltary assets(for the break-breaking blow) are being put in place under the guise of the large scale security movements of elections scheduled for 28th Jan 2012.I've neither the wherewithal nor the time to track military movements.But 2 things strongly point towards the military movements as I write this.

1)The sudden arrival of Direcdtor General of Military Operations in Imphal ostensibly for election security arrangements.

2)The unprecedented official Indian request to Burma seeking its help for the smooth conduct of Manipur elections on the 28th.This strongly points to the likley incursion of Indian military inside Burma.

I think that Indian military action is coming.

UPDATE-1
26th March 2012

As I'm reading the news informing us that China has dubbed the Dalai Lama as the 'US-controlled Nazi',it comes to me as a revelation that Casteism, for all practical purposes,equals Nazism.

We may call it Casteism viewing it from the perspective from Social Sciences--but when viewed from the perspectives of the daily grinds of political practice,Casteism surely equals Nazism.

It sure gives me a bad jolt seeing this for the first time that the Casteist constituent within the Indian society(and its counterpart in Manipuri society) is practicing Nazism.

But we come to very interesting conclusion--both China and the Manipuri rebels are equal members of the Grand Coalition against Nazism.

It's the duty of all the responsible citizen of this globe to root out Nazism from our midst.

UPDATE-2
12th April 2012.

Anybody who can take the chance of being labelled a paranoid can read this pattern:--The Indian Army chief,Gen VK Singh's whole drama starting from age row to the leaked letter to the Prime Minister to the coup story is clearly meant to send out the following message.

--The relationship between the Army and its present civilian controllers in New Delhi has soured to such an extent that no meaningful military action would be forthcoming until the General retires on the 31st May 2012(meaning,making the Manipuri rebels complacent in the idea that no military action is coming until 31st May 2012)--

Although seemingly farfetched,this is the only pattern to be singled out for someone like me living in Imphal.Also,remembering that it's always better to be a bit paranoid to be able to stay a step ahead of the competition,I'll defend myself for embracing paranoia in the following points:

1)As shown in my last update,there is already an idealogical underpinning in the coming clash--it's nothing to do with territory,border disputes or rebellion within India.It's everything to do with crushing the practice of Nazism and hence,the smashing of the fortress of Nazism(my last update).This puts tremendous pressure on the Indian political leadership to push the military to assiduosly plan for a clean,surgical strike on the Manipuri rebels with the aim of avoiding international outcry at any cost.Hence, the whole drama.

2)The just concluded visit of the junior Defence Minister,Mr Pallam Raju to Moreh which sits right on the India-Burma border was designed to build up in the message sent out by the drama of Gen Singh.The visit was intended to make the Manipuri rebels think like this--"Ah!Only the civilian controllers of the Indian Army come here--where are the real armymen hiding? We are waiting for them!".Thus making the Manipuri rebels more complascent than ever.

3)The Indian Army is extremely well prepared,as opposed to what the leaked letter by the General tries to make us believe.

This was shown some weeks back when the Indian Army executed a flawless military exercise along the banks of Brahmaputra(the parts of Arunachal Pradesh,which is very near to the Chinese border)involving the state of the art fighter planes and special troops.It turns out that Indian Army has quietly putting together units of special troops for the faceoff with the Chinese army along Arunachal sector!That's some sign of lack of 'preparedness'of the Indian army!!That military exerciser was efficiently timed to coincide with the day when the Chinese foreign minister was in New Delhi.

Isn't it the case the General Singh speaking garbages on purpose to send out some well thougth-out messages?

4)Another garbage the General is mouthing is that the civilian bureaucracy is tenaciously standing on the way of military works,mainly in the developments of military infrastructures.Last heard,about 70 new roads near Chinese border are being built on a war footing.Most of these roads pass through ecologically fragile forest lands but the works are going on a war footing,meaning there is absolutely no case of civilian bureaucracy standing on the way.

The General,again,was speaking garbages on purpose.

5)Another one of General's garbages is the lack of funds.Any casual reader of current news and financial positions of India would be immediately struck with the way the Indian army has been returning money which it has not able to use--that too,on a regular basis,year after year.This current budget is allocating funds to the military which is hefty 17% raise.Now,the Indian military is the largest importer of arms in the world.

So,where is the lack of funds?Total garbage.

6)Begining the month of February,when I wrote the main post,they has been quitely and
slowly amassing military assets for the coming military action against the Manipuri
rebels.Right now,under the pretext of the joint Indo-US naval exercise(a 10-day affair concluding on the 16th of April 2012),they are bringing in the major part of the US Navy's 7th Fleet near the Bay of Bengal.This includes the aircraft carrier,USS Carl Vinson.This aircraft carrier is clearly meant to be quickly deployed deep inside the Bay of Bengal to offset any Chinese movements along the Arunachal sector in the aftermath of the Indian military action against the Manipuri rebels.

Judging by the scale of the ongoing preparations by the Indian State and the personalities(and the quantumn of military assets)involved,it's quite safe to infer like this:

1)The Indian State is leaving no stones unturned in its quest to take the Manipuri rebels by surprise.They are working extremely hard,spanning several oceans and several years,to gain the element of surprise in the coming military action against the Manipuri rebels.

2)the coming military action would be a localized one but extremely intense,by virtue of the application of the full might of the Indian army on it.

Having come this far,it's terribly tempting to infer that the Indian military action would be coming by the 16th of April 2012(the date on the joint Indo-US naval exercise concludes).

But it's prudent not to name any date;instead,it would be wiser to infer like this:

--The Indian military action is likely to come on any date when the aircraft carrier,USS Carl Vinson does not move out of the range from which it can be quickly deployed deep inside the Bay of Bengal to fend off any Chinese movements expected along the Arunachal as the consequence of the Indian military action against the Manipuri rebels--

UPDATE-3
31st May 2012

Here is the headline:

--NE rebels told to leave Burmese soil by 10th of June 2012:Burmese President--.

And,here is the unpublished(and thus,unsaid) line:

--Is it a verifiable promise?--

Here,we need to consider two identifying features of the situation.

1)We are dealing with a vast expanse of land which is one of the few remaining Last Frontiers of this Globe.

2)These vast wild lands are loosely controlled by one of the most mysterious institutions of the world,namely,the Burmese Army.

Keeping the question in the context of these two features,we can safely say that anybody who tries to verify the Burmese Presidnet's promise given to the Indian Prime Minsiter would be assailed by the sense massive frustration.If we go down a little deeper,it's also safe to say that he would be certainly tired down by the constant encounters of frustration and exasperation.

Would the legendary Indian patience would prove equal to this constant encounters of frustration and exasperation?

In trying to answer this question,first,we need to put the recent developments in Burma in proper perspectives.In direct contrast to the constant trumpeting in the media,there is neither opening up nor democratization process in Burma.What the whole range of media sees as opening up or democratization is actually an effort by the Burmese Army to erect around itself a pliable democratic and civilian shield.Its real objective is to enable the Burmese society to speak in two different voices.For example,when pressed hard for the implementation of the Burmese President's promise,the civilian govt can say one thing while the Burmese Army can say another altogether different thing.When pressed even harder,they would blame each other for the tardy implementation of the President's promise.A glimpse for this coming scenario can be seen in the recently signed peace agreement between the Burmese Govt and a faction of a Naga rebel group,which permits the cadres of the group to roam freely fully armed all throughout Sagaiing region,where the Manipuri rebels have their bases.Whenever India complains that there are still Manipuri rebels there,it's
easy to answer that it might be the case of mistaken identity--(Burmese)Naga rebels mistakenly identified as Manipuri rebels.

In other words,the legendary Indian patience would break down in no time.Would all these tire down the Indian diplomats and its military leaders?

By now,it's reasonable for anybody to say that I'm letting my imagination run wild a bit too far!But to defend myself for my viewpoint I'll cite 3 recent develpments:

1)The sudden and the most intriguing yearning for pilgrimage felt by the good old soul of the Pakistani Prime Minister which prompted him to quickly reach Ajmer via (oh!sure)Delhi.The resultant meetings and talks quickly touch the recently unthinkable item like the demilitarization of the Siachin Glacier.So,is there a sudden change of heart in Pakistani side?Or,is it something else?(Just like the queation--is there a real opening up and democratization process in Burma?Or,is it somethng else?).

2)There was another sudden(and equally inexplicable) zeal of the Americans to lift sanctions against Burma and to appoint an ambassador there--that zeal,mark my words here!--accidentaly struck the compassionate American souls barely 7 days to go for the Indian Prime Minister to leave for Burma!!So,is it real American zeal for the Burmese people?Or,is it sometning else?

3)One fine afternoon,around the time when the Indian Prime Minister was being ceremoniuosly recieved in the newly constructed fortress capital of Burma,two Budhist monkd appeared from thin air in front of Jokhang Monsatry in Llasa and attempted self immolations.Is this act the story of the readiness of the monks to sacrifice their lives for the causes of the Tibetans?Or, is it something else?

Why should I take all the troubles to make the above list plus the elaboration on the recent events in Burma?

I take all these troubles in order to enable me to spell out that all these apparently unrelated events around the world are in fact the manisfestations of the intense tussle between two combatants,one representing the forces of Nazism and the other,a coalition seeking to crush Nazism,trying to pin down a battlefront of their own choosing--a battlefront most suitable to their battleplans.

So,where is the battlefront?

In my humble opinion,this battlefront would be demarcated by the way in which the Indain State tries to shake off frustration and exasperation in seeking the verification of the promise just given by the Burmese President.And the verification process officially starts on the 10th of June 2012.

The actual battlefront might not be visible for sometime to come but the actual battle begins on the 10th of June 2012.

Now,there is this uneviable task of putting this game changing development in black and white:

--THE FIRST BATTLE OF THE WAR THAT WILL DETERMINE THE DIRECTION OF THE 21ST CENTURY COMMENCES ON THE 10TH OF JUNE 2012--

Oh!My god!! The commence date is 10th of June 2012!!

What is 10th of June?

Go,figure it out for ourself.

UPDATE-4
17th June 2012

In a pre-emptive move,India fired the first shot fully utilizing its soft powers.

Here,we need to remember that the Indian home minister,P.Chidambaram,in a press conference a day after the Prime Minister's official visit to Burma,diplomatically acknowledged that their Prime Minsiter's just concluded visit was a failure.

In hindsight,it's quite clear that they quickly cobbled together a move to pre-empt the Burmese president's declaration of a battlefront beginning on 10th of June 2012(see my last update).By the 7th of June it's quite clear that the Indain State had instigated the Stateless Bengali settlers in Arakan state,borderng Bangladesh,to start an ethnic war against the majority Burmans there.

Not to be outdone,a state of emergency was declared in Arakan state on the 10th of June.The Grand Coaltion against Nazism made it a point to stick to the 10th of June 2012 declaration of the battlefront.

It's sickening to see EU and Us leaders cheering the Indian State's first salvo employing below the belt dirty tactics.US secretary of state,Ms Hillary Clinton,was personally there--she was in effect saying--"Bravo,India,you are the master of dirty war".

Here we are encountering several new things:

1)The world has already acknowledged the fabulous soft power of India.Beginning the 7th of June 2012,the world had just witnessed a tragic scene:real blood can be shed by the devilish soft power of India.It's a game changing event.

2)It's now clear that there are very potent Indian sleeper cells inside Burma.Just like Al Qaeda,the Indian State,using its soft powers,has been inserting sleeper cells inside Burma.By now widely publicized ethnic war between the Bengali and Burmans(nearly 2000 houses burnt and more than 20 people killed)was evidently initiated by the Indian sleeper cells.

3)If they can do inside Burma,it's easy for them to insert numerous sleeper cells inside Manipuri society.As I'm wrting this,these sleeper cells are listening,plotting and waiting for New Delhi's instructions.

4)Last but not the least,Burma has quitely joined the Grand Coalition against Nazism.That India has to activate several of its sleeper cells and initiated widespread ethnic war points to its acknowledgemnet that the Burma has chosen to stand firm accross the battleline facing India.As the still unfolding events show,it seems not to be decision of Burmese army alone--it seems to be a decision taken in consultation with Aung Sang Suu Kyi and NLD.

In my personal level,it's a bit anti-climatic to see India employing such a below the belt tactic,that too in the first salvo of the battle.As the whole world is rushing towards the brave new world of the 21st Century,India is fast descending into Al Qaeda-level ethos---JAI HO!

The blockades in 'animated suspensions' :the inside story and the next 2 years.

At the outset,we need to take note of the timings of putting the blockades in 'animated suspensions'.The first one,by the Kukis was suspended just as Mr Chidambaram,the Union Home Minister,descended in Imphal on an official visit.The second one was suspended on the run-up to the official visit of Mr Manmohan Singh,the Prime Minister and Mrs Sonia Gandhi,the president,Indian National Congress on the 3rd of December 2011.

These timings clearly show from where the strings of the blockades were pulled(and,are going to be pulled in future).

Why should New Delhi wants to pull the strings,hiding behind the Kukis and the Nagas?There are several posts in this blog trying to answer this question.But the fact that the blockades are now in 'animated suspension'dictates us to re-state the answer.

The Casteist constituent within the Indian society is the driving force behind it.This Castiest constituent successfully outwaited both Jainism and Budhism(and,also the Dravidian movement in South India and yes,Mohandas K.Gandhi as well).For some time now,it has been on a grand design to outwait the Chinese Communist Party.That's why they have been keeping the Tibetan issue just 'alive'under the cloak of religion.As and when they sense that the Chinese Communist Party begins losing touch with the Chinese people(which may happen after several centuries--the Casteists have been patient all along--see the cases of Jainism and Budhism) they would revive the Tibetan issue and make it secede from China.(It's worth noting that the varied 'micro-outwaiting'games currently underway in the guise of peace talks hardly warrant a mention here).

This slow but incessant pace of the spectacularly successful 'outwaiting game' of the Casteist is being queered by none other than the Manipuri rebels.

Keeping this background in focus,we may now come to the inside story of the blockades.

The inside story in a nutshell--To be able to return to the comfortable and spectacularly successful path of 'outwaiting'its foes,the Casteist have just embarked on a one final effort to isolate and immobilized the Manipuri rebel group(responsible for the queering of the 'outwaiting game')and,in result,the constituent within the Manipuri society forming its bulwork.That's why they have crafted a 3-months-long blockade.Then,they leaked out the details of the 'supra state body' just in the run-up to the 47th anniversary of the oldest rebel group of Manipur.

If the Castiests fail in this final foray,they have no choice but to encounter a clear faceoff with china--which is the direct opposite of their 'outwaiting game'.(In my mind,Ms Hillary Clinton's Burma visit is less to do with Burma itself than to size up the 'Manipuri component'of this developing faceoff).

But the modus operandi of this final foray?

Basically,they simulated(by not repairing the National Highway 53 and simultaneosly
sponsoring a 3-months-long blockades on the highways and then,leaking to the media the blueprint of accedding the 'Greater Nagaland' in the form of 'supra state body' narrative) a situation whereby the oldest rebel group of Manipur would think it's the 'time' to publicly and officially announce its relationship with China.If that happens,it would go full throttle to try to isolate this rebel group(and,ultimately,the constituent forming its bulwork) and brand them as the henchmen of China(a rebel group instigated by China).Some kind of all too familiar 'foreign hand'narrative.(It also seems that the rebel group anticipated this move--that's why China accused India of 'instigating'smaller nations against it--that too,on the 24th of Nov,the birthday of the rebel group--see my last post)

But the rebel group,in its lengthy message on its 47th anniversary(the 24th of Nov),refused to bite the bait.This makes the purpose of the 3-months-long blockade redundant and,so,New Delhi instructed the Naga blockaders to lift the blockade(the 28th of Nov) .

Now,coming to Manipuri society,its Casteist constituent,unlike its counterpart in the mainland Indian society,is not,at present,the driving force behind it.But,by placing itself in tandem with its counterpart in the mainland Indian society and with the economic and political powers flowing out of New Delhi,it,nevertheless,exerts disproportionately strong influnce on the functioning of Manipuri society.By just sitting tight,it effectively drags down Manipuri society to a confusing inertia.In other words,it can outwait the progress of Manipuri society.If it can continue to do so for 2-3 decades,Manipuri society would be in a complete inertia,thus effectively checkmating the movements of the constituent forming the bulwok of the oldest rebel group.

So,the lines of the constant probings to isolate and immobilize the rebel group(and the Constituent forming its bulwork) and the'outwaiting game'of the the Casteist constituent of Manipuri society might intersect in some futre date.

But,this is a tremendously significant 'but',the Manipuri society, which is in the midst of a tightly-joined battle,is likely to encounter a faceoff with an unpredictable but potentially destabilizing factor:the age of our leader from Somdal.Our leader from Somdal,Mr Thuingalen Muivah,is now around 85 years of age but,when he reaches 88,he must be 'almost 90'.At an age which is 'almost 90',he cannot be an effective leader.So,he has got just 2 years to press forward with all his might for 'Greater Nagaland',which is another name for the gameplan of snatching away hills and mountains of Manipur.

In a scenario in which there is possibility of the hills and mountains of Manipur got snantched away,the Casteists agenda of just sitting tight,'outwaiting' any progress in Manipuri society might become untenable,which would set off a chain reaction giving leeway to the Constituent(forming the bulwork of the oldest rebel group) to move forward,which,in turn,would likely to decide whether the Casteists Constituent in the Mainland Indian Society can continue its decades old endeavour to 'outwait' the Chinese Communist Party.

The next 2/3 might as well prove to be a gamechanging ones for Manipuri Society.


UPDATE-1
4th Dec

The Prime Minister speaking at Kangla on the 3rd of Dec was very categorical about 'Supra-states body'--he said the issue was not under Central Government's consideration.

This only tells us that Mr Thuingalen Muivah and the ruling class in New Delhi are now embarking on a 'sophisticated' blockading.

I've already a post describing this.


UPDATE-2
5th Dec

As I have no cable connection(yes,I've already cut the cord!),I got no chance to see the live coverages of the speeches of the Prime Minister and the Chief Minister.I got to hear the edited version of the speeches on radio this afternoon only.

As I was listening to the speech of the Chief Minister,Mr Okram Ibobi,I could easily detect the changed tone and tenor,especially when he addressed the Central leadership sitting right there at the same platform.

Mr Okram Ibobi has changed.

Judging by one of his public speeches on one Khongjom Day celebration,he was acutely aware of the changing geo-political situation in our vicinity.

And this changing geo-political situation has also brought about an equally startling change to the Chief Minsiter.

As he has grown up politically amidst the Indian National Congress cultural milleue(ie,extreme case real politic),he seems to be acutely aware of the new power equation brought about by this changing geo-political situation.He seems to think that he can bluff his way(in,like demanding ever expanding economic packages) thorough the Delhi ruling class.

I think it's the first tangible change seen on the body of the Indian polity which has been brought about by the changing geo-political situation in our vicinity.I also think that more changes are coming.

If he carries on like this,he would have significant impact on the direction on which Manipur society would likely to take,implying that he would have signicant impact on the making of the 'Manipuri component'of the still developing faceoff between India and China.

Today is my birthday and I'm actually proud to be able to detect such a momentous change on this day.

UPDATE-3
22nd Dec

The oldest rebel group responded.

On the 20th of Dec the Indian State executed a tactical retreat.

And,on the 20th Dec itself the oldest rebel group attacked several military outposts near Burma border.

In my mind,it seems to be the classic case Mao Ze Dong dictum in action.I cannot recollect the dictum clearly but it goes on something like this:

When the enemy advances,we retreat.When the enemy retreats,we advance.

We should recollect that it was widely reported that the Kukis would again impose the blockade from 2oth Dec onward but the Indian State used the Supreme Court to announce publicly that any blockade on the highways would be cleared within 24 hours.

That made the Kukis retreat,meaning, the Indian state made a tactical retreat on the 20th of Dec.

UPDATE-4
1st Jan 2012

I would like to start the new year with a fresh re-look at myself.

In this particular post and several recent posts,I tended to veer towards the view that the still developing 'India-China faceoff' had been giving my personal and my society's day to day businesses a warlike impact(like the unavailabilty of petrol and cooking gas--I've been burning woods for my meals).

If it's only a normal and simple faceoff between two countries,my society should not have suffered this warlike impact.

So?

The only plausible reason I can think of is that Manipuri rebels have joined a grand coalition against Casteist Imperialism.

China may be an outsize,but still an equal,member of the grand coaltion.

India have been trying to break up this grand coaltion.That's why Manipuri society sufferred 120-days crippling economic blockades.That's why we cannot buy petrol and cooking gas,except in astronomical price markup.

On a personal level,I firmly beleive that every progressive citizen of this globe have the legitimate right to strike deep inside the birthplace of Casteist Imperialism.Casteist Imperialism is the new challenge faced by the whole world in this 21st Century.

The ongoing blockade:Encirclement,China and the 24th of November.

What's the differnece between encirclement and blockading?

What about India encircled by China just like Imphal valley already 'encircled' by Naga blockaders sponsored by New Delhi?

Intersting thought,isn't it?

But it's more than just a thought.In a just posted commentary on Xinhua website,China actually mentioned the words 'encirclement of India,though it said that 'India is living under delusion that China was out to encircle it'.

Here is the link.

To my knowledge,it's the first time China has ever used the words 'encirclement of India' in an official commentary.

And,China is doing this on the 24th of November.

The ongoing blockade:New Delhi's Plan B and the uncharted territory

The Union Home Minsiter of India descended(a few days back for a one-night stay)in Imphal with a well-prepared Plan B.

That he(as a representative of the rulers in New Delhi) did have a Plan B means that his visit in Imphal marked the beginning of the rolling out of New Delhi's big gamble of entering an uncharted territory.

As any move in New Delhi have direct impact in Manipur,its people are,unwittingly,dragged into a journey towards an uncharted territoty as well.

THE PLAN B.

First,why the Plan B?

Because the rulers in New Delhi are conscious that they are betting on a big gamble.Anything can happen.So,they want a safety valve,an escaped route firmly in place as they begin their Devilish journey towards the uncharted territoty.

The existence of the Plan B is revealed by the presence of Mr Prakash Karat,the leader of CPI(M),in Imphal on the same days Mr Chidambaram,the Home Minister in Delhi,stayed here in Imphal.

As it happened,Mr Chidambaram steadfastly avoided the media while Mr Karat was too eager to cozy up with it.

Mr Chidambaram,the Home Minsiter did nothing to lift the more than 3 months ecenomic
blockades on the highways which is choking off the flow of essential commodities all over the State,particularly the valley area.His inaction,calculated or therwise,have the unfortunate and indirect impact of encouraging and supporting the blockaders.

Encouraging and supporting the blockadeers by none other than the Union Home Minsister?

Well,Mr Karat was right there in front of the media implying exactly that when he spelled out how Chidambaram was doing nothing and was,in fact,neglecting and turning a blind eye towards the plight of the citizens as they struggle with the astronomical price rise because of the economic blockade.

This is where the need of a Plan B comes in.If things go out of control,Mr Karat(and the rest of the ruling class in New Delhi and the rest of India) would say it was because of an individual named Chidamabaram(and of one party called the Indian National Congress)--they are the culprits--their fault--but the rest of India is still a friend of Manipur.

Mr Chidabaram and Mr Karat were acting on a fully thought out script.

(As it turned out,it's sad to note that Comrade Karat was not there as a CPI-M leader but as a fellow conspirator of Mr Chidambaram,the Home Minister.And it's also sad to note that Comrade Karat was selectd by New Delhi exactly because the citizenry of Manipur,more or less,have some trust in the integrity of the leaders of the CPI-M.Obviously,Comrade Karat have to forego his party and his own personal integrity because he was on an overinding 'national security mission' in Manipur.Sad.Sad.)

THE UNCHARTED TERRITORY.

Giving a fresh lease of life to an already 3-months running economic blockade is certainly a clear case of stepping into an uncharted territory.

That's exactly what Mr Chidambaram's Imphal visit had achieved.

The blockadeers,who recieve direct intructions from the Naga rebel group,NSCN-M,which is currently on a 10-years running peace talk with New Delhi,have,in the last few days,been reinforced with newer signals that they have Mr Chidambaram (and the rulers in New Delhi) on their side.

But why should New Delhi support the 3-months running ecenomic blockade?

It's because New Delhi is fully convinced that the direction-shifting battle in the fight with China lies in Imphal Valley,which is currently blockaded continously for 99 days now.This point is fully discussed here here and here.

How the ongoing blockade would give New Delhi its much needed strategic win?

New Delhi is deploying all political and diplomatic skills in its armoury to hide behind the Naga blockaders so that the ire of the citizenry would be directed towards the Nagas.That would certainly result in an ethnic war.New Delhi is zeroing in to that ethnic war.Because in that scenario,the rebels of Manipurs,who have evidently a good working relations with Beijing, would have their hands so full managing the crisis that they would no time for relations with Beijing.

I believe that,in the advent of an ethnic war,the Manipur society would be in a complete disarray and thus, would be completely paralysed.

New Delhi,by hiding behind the Naga blokadeers,are aiming for no less than the complete paralysis of Manipuri society.

But New Delhi is missing on one very crucial point.

The present ground reality is the Naga blockaders have a complete sway on one National Highway,called NH 37.To be really effective,the blockaders have to have a complete control over another National Highway,called the NH 53,through which the Govt of Manipur in bringing in essential commodities at great cost(now the queues in the retailing outlets for petrol are 4 kms long--imagine consumers in 4 kms long queues!).I know it would evoke total disbelief when I say this:the Prime Minister of the largest democracy of the world came to the rescue of the blockadeers.But it is fully detailed here.

The upkeep and maintenance of the National Highway 53 is being looked after by the Border Roads Organisation(BRO),which is directly under Ministry of Defence,Union of India.Repeated attempts by the Govt of Manipur to transfer the job to it Public Works Deptt were vetoed by the Defence Ministry.The BRO made a lot of noise and is still keeping the highway in a terrible condition.As it stands now,a few weeks of rain would render the highway unfit for light traffic,leave aside heavy trucks.

On one highway,New Delhi is sponsoring a total blockade via the Nagas and on the other,an organisation under it direct control is making the road unfit for traffic.

A lot has happened regarding this National Highway 53.The Govt of Manipur and a number Civil Society Organisations has petitioned the Prime Minister and many other power players but nothing has materialized.

So much so that the general citizenry has already begun to suspect that soemthing
'extraordinary' is undergoing in NH53.As of now,in my mind,they are refusing to believe that any responsible power centre,be it Imphal or New Delhi or for that,anywhere in the world,would stoop so low as to refuse to repair the highway facilitating the success of an economic blockade,trapping 2 million people inside a tiny valley.They are in denial mode.

Yes,the general citizenry of Manipur is in denial mode--they remain silent beacuse of this but not beacuse they are being intimidated by the Devilish design by New Delhi.I think New Delhi misses on this subtle but crucial point.

As we start entering the unchartered territory,the newly experienced sgnals,impulses and the general ambience might evoke a series of responses within the general citizenry to enable itself to lift the veil of denial and to reveal to itself the true nature what New Delhi actually is.(It is exactly at this point of time that New Delhi hopes to let the Plan B kicked in,presenting Mr Chidambaram and the Indian National Congress as the scapegoats).

I even don't like to mention the only other possible scenario as we start entering the unchartered territory--the ethnic war.I truly hope that we won't come down to that lowly level.

But,as was mentioned earlier,anything can happen because we are being forced into an
unchartered territoy.

Ongoing blockade---Instructions from New Delhi.

This may sound a bit dramatic but let me say it---

How is Manipuri society's destiny got so tangled up with the ongoing blockade?

We are talking about our destiny because the hardships heaped on us, and the profound questions thrown up, by this ongoing blockade may help us open up our eyes to the true personality of the Indian State in action.Once the majority of our populace reach that point,we may come face to face with our destiny.

On the 51st day of the ongoing economic blockade, let me make a list of the intructions sent down by New Delhi to the blockade sponsors.

In other words,the list portrays the dirty war being waged by the Indian State against the helpless and innocent people of Manipur.

1)The first is not exactly the intruction sent down to the blockade sponsors but nontheless an instruction.

I can't the remember the date but it was in the early days of the ongoing blocakde when Assam Rifles sepoys beat up blockade supporters on the highway 39.There was a huge commotion in the Sardar hills in protest against the AR sepoys.

New Delhi instructed the AR to show the way to the Manipuri society by its example:BEAT UP THE BLOCKADE SUPPORTERS AND OPEN UP THE BLOCKADE.

2)The second episode is also similar to the first one but this time Assam Rifles convoys promised safe passage to some Manipuri truckers by letting them mingle with the AR trucks on the NH39.But they somehow let the blockade supporters burn down 4 trucks.

Then, they again beat up some blockade supporters.

This time--more passionate case of leading by example:BEAT UP THE BLOCKADE SUPPORTERS AND OPEN UP THE BLOCKADE.

3)This was 3rd September 2011.And it was in Keithelmanbi.

As a positive response to the appeal made personally in a public meeting held in Sardar hills by the president of a prominent civil Society organization,the last of the series of public meeting called by the Sardar Hills district Demand Committee in Keithelmanbi announced the suspension of the econonmic blockade.Even as it was being announced,suddenly there arose a fracas within the meeting.And,the announcement was kept in abeyance so that it could be confirmed by the following day.

It was a clear case of an intruction to scuttle the announcement by New Delhi to the
underground outfits currently engaged in Suspension of operation with it.

It is to be noted here that from the beginning of the series of public meetings in four different places(the last being Keithelmanbi),there was a very positive vibe that the economic blockade might be suspended.So, the Indian STate had got a plenty of time to prepare the instruction to scuttle the announcement in Keithelmanbi.

4)12th September 2011.

The Sardar Hills District Demand Committee announced that the existing Sardar Hills
boundary should be kept in tact--no redrawing,no tweaking.

This is huge change in the stance of the Committee.

Previously,in all the public meetings(in even one held in Imphal)they wanted district first--boundary question could be discussed later on.

Now,it's not the question of districthood---but the question of "Kuki land".

On another instruction from New Delhi,the functioning of the Committee was hijacked by the underground elements and the demand for a districthood morphed into an ethnic issue.

5)15th September 2011.

Mr P Chidambaram,the Home Minister,Union Of India,daintily came out to the floor of the conference of top cops in New Delhi and heartily announced that his Union has just now begun to face the newest problem--BLOCKADE ON THE HIGHWAYS.

It took the very presence of the honorable Home Minister himself to give blessings to their henchsmen on the highways of Manipur!Come on,New Delhi!!

6)20th September 2011.

As if to celebrate the 50th day of the blockade,Mr Wungnaoshang Keishing,the Phungyar MLA,began running front page ads in major Imphal dailies.

We have to remember here(as my last post had discussed in detail) that the ongoing blockade aka the newest dirty war by the Indian State,was enunciated by an instruction given to Mr Keishing.Now, we have just seen Mr Keishing recieving the second instruction.

So,what might be the second instruction by New Delhi to Mr Keishing?

Provocations on the highways won't do. Now,bring the provocations to the heart of Imphal Valley--Konung Lampak(Palace compound).

So,Mr Keishing dutifully announced in his ads a political conference of Phungyar
constituency at Konung Lampak on the 5th of October 2011!He is inviting 'headsmen,pastors,leaders of the students union and women union,social workers and well wishers of the Phungyar constituency'.

The ads continue their second day run on the front pages of today's major dailies.

Amidst the dramatic price rises,so much uncertainties and so much pent-up feelings,a lone ranger might throw a rock towards the conference.Then,a minor scuffle.Then,a bigger one.Then,somebody might get hurt and then,God forbid it,somebody might get killed.Then,we have the spark of an ethnic clash.

Clearly,Mr Keishing is instructed to aim for that spark in Konung Lampak--the spark so far proving illusive despite such intensive and prolonged provocations on the highways.

New Delhi is becoming desperate for a spark of an ethnic war in Manipur.

The ongoing blockades--the Chanakya-esque ploy to drive a wedge between Manipuri society and China

We have now twin blockades--enforced on all highways both by the Nagas and the Kukis.

We are facing the prospect of the tightest blockade ever witnessed in recent times by this tiny valley of ours.

But we also notice 2 crucial differnetiating characteristics in the present blockades:

1.Both are carefully crafted in New Delhi.

2.Both the blockades can be called off in a short notice because they are concerned with the relatively small matter of creation of a district.

New Delhi is testing if the tightest ever blockade of Imphal Valley result in another Gilgit Batistan.

If there materializes another Gilgit Batistan,New Delhi would instruct the Kukis to
immediately call off the blockade(because New Delhi can act swiftly in a matter as simple as creation of a district).

In the above scenario,the Chinese would land themselves in a situation which will look foolish to the rest of the amused world.

But New Delhi is not interested in painting the Chinese as foolish.There is more subtle goal.

If the Chinese land themselves in the above situation,it would be solely because of the wrong inputs from the Imphal Valley.Then the chinese would have no option but to
recalibrate the Manipuri society--the inputs from Manipuri society is at best unreliable and the Manipuri society itself is at best kept in a distance.

Thus,New Delhi would succeed in driving a wedge between the Chinese and the Manipuri
society.

I can come this far because I 'jumped' to the conclusion that the ongoing blocakes are 'carefully crafted in New Delhi'.There is every likelyhood of any people thinking that I did actually 'jump to the conclusion'if we remember that the demand for a district in Sardar Hills is a 40 years old demand,which even the Chief Minister had publicly announced as being 'justified'.

To clarify this point,we need to revisit the chronology of the events of the last few weeks:

1)On the 23rd July 2011,Mr Pranab Mukherjee announced 1 trillion USD investment in NE,which can be inferred to as a round about way of giving notice to China by India that India together with US can outspend China in every field including military spending.(My last post).

2)On the 30th July 2011,a Chinese military patrol in Arunachal Pradesh pulled down 200m long wall erected by the Indian military.This demolition of the wall prompted a formal lodging of a protest by the Indian milatry to the Chinese military.And, this is important,the Indian military immediately built up the 200m wall all over again.

In demolishing the wall,the Chinese are responding to Mr Pranab Mukherjee's notice--they are not responding in empty words but in concrete action.

3)On the 1st August 2011,the blockade by the Kukis started.

4)This is the game changing episode in our chronology.On the 18th of August the military headquarters in New Delhi broke the news of the demolition of the wall by the Chinese patrol.(This PTI news was carried on the 19th August issue of Poknapham--it's on page 2)

Why 18th of August?

It's because the Kuki leaders spearheading the blockade were in New Delhi meeting the President of India and the Home Minsiter,P.Chidambaram.Why so much readiness in lending ears to the group of people demanding a mere district admimistration by none other than the President of India herself?In contrast, the Chief Minister was made to cool his heals for several days in trying to meet the Home Minister.

All these things do not add up.

Unless,we try to see it as another round about way of sending another notice--you responded by demolishing the wall--now,we respond by blockading your darling Imphal Valley.

5)On the 21st August 2011,another blockade by the Nagas started.

Ironicaly,this 5th and the last episode makes us to see the begiining.

It turns out that Mr Wungnaoso Keishing, the Phungyar MLA worked closely with the Naga Lim people.They worked together with a carefully crafted plan in hand.

First,Mr Keishing was made to plead the Chief Minister for establishing a district
administration in Phungyar.It came out publicly that the chief Minsiter was ready to hand out the district to Mr Keishing.

Then,the Naga Lim people made a public show of not liking the idea.They even ambushed Mr Keishing,ever careful not to hurt Mr Keishing himself.They killed 6 people in the ambush,all non-Nagas except one.Careful planning,isn't it?

Then, feelers were made to be sent to the Kukis in Sardar Hills by using the Kuki groups engaged in Suspension of Operation with the Indian Military--the Chief Minister is ready to create new districts--so, why not longstanding Sardar Hills district?

All these careful crafting of the grand plan is not possible without the direct involvement of New Delhi.

Here comes the definitive battleline of the 21st Century.

1 trillion USD,by any count,is huge.
(If I start spending 1 million USD,roughly Rs 4.4 crores,everyday for the next 2000 years,I would be able to spend only three quarters of a trillion dollar!On the macro level,we have already seen that the US,which has almost half a billion population and the world's largest economy,needed only about 1 trillion dollar infusion,in the shape of TARP, to check the downward spiral of its economy).

Now, Mr Pranab Mukherjee,the Indian Finance Minister,has just announced that the Central Government in New Delhi would invest 1 trillion dollars in the NE India's infrastructure,mainly roads and communications!

And,Mr Mukherjee chose 23rd of July,which is a hugely momentous day for Manipur, to make the announcement!!He did it on purpose to send out the message that this 1 trillion dollar is the direct response to Gilgit Batistan.

If one puts 1 trillion dollars justaposed to NE India,everybody would be initially assailed by the sense of disbelief and then,finally,blown away by a shock wave.To prevent this,Mr Pranab Mukherjee visited Washington 3 weeks ago and publicly announced the Indian Government's invitation for 1 trillion USD investment for India's infrastructure.Even then,when 1 trillion USD was put justaposed to the infrastructure of the whole of India,there was that sense of disbelief.Who would bring in that kind of money for India's infrastructure?

Three weeks later Secretary of State,Ms Hillary Clinton came to India and after some days of her departure,Mr Pranab Mukherjee announced that that 1 trillion dollars is meant for only NE India and half of that money(ie,500 billion dollars) would come from private sector.If this 'private sector'do not mean US Government-fronted US companies,asking 500 billion dollars as private funding for NE India from anywhere in the globe would only invite smirks and ridicules.So, is this the case of Secretary Clinton giving the go ahead to Minister Mukherjee?

Let's move back in one week's time.There we would find that US sudenly suspending US aids to Pakistan.Then,came the arrest of Mr Syed Ghulam Nabi Fai by FBI.These two events make us stand up and ask:Is US ditching Pakistan as a strategic ally?More pertinently,can US make both Pakistan and India as strategic allies?

To answer this question,we have to go back to the time when the Tamil separatists in Sri Lanka was inflicted a crushing military defeat.Amidst the dust and din of that short war there stood out one significant news:Pakistan supplied military hardware to the Lankan military for the war and there were senior Pakistani military officer 'advising' its Lankan counterpart on the ground.Pakistani strategic thinkers were then betting on a very significant scenario:if they helped the Sri Lankan military in bringing about a crushing military to the LTTE,then the Tamil separatists would have no other options but to shift their base to Tamil Nadu state of India.If one can add Tamil Nadu to the same league as that NE and Kashmir,we would have a vastly altered strategic scenario in the IOndian sub-continent.

In other words,there are very active strategic thinkers in the vicinity of the Indian nation who are betting on the implosion of the Indian nation.

(Did Secretary Clinton get the intel that the shift of base LTTE had already happened?Is this reason why she ditched Bangalore and Mumbai and landed in Chennai to talk pluralism and Sri Lanka?Is this the message she wanted to send out--'Tamils of the world,don't go for the implosion of India'?)

Now,we return to our question:Can US make both Pakistan and India as her strategic allies?The answer is no because Pakistan is going full steam for the implosion of India.US may not much care for the implosion of India per se but it desperately need (a non-imploded)India as a solid counterweight to china.

With US putting 500 billion dollars on the table and with Al Qaeda being pushed into a corner and with the still deeloping Arab Spring in hand,it is now certain that US has just made a historic change in its foreign policy priority--Islamic terrorism comes down to the second place with the containment of China moving up the no 1 slot(with the ripple effect of ditching Pakistan as a strategic ally).

India and US has just committed to jointly and equally spent 1 trillion USD in our homeground to start the containment of China(or,in other words,to start the prevention of implosion of India).We are being sucked into the world of multi-faceted American and Indian strategy of containment of china.

Having come this far,it's now easy to conclude:for both India and US it's worth more than a trillion dollar to contain China.

Now,in our home ground,we have at hand a poignant scenario:on one the hand,there are Indian operatives moving so unobtrusively(so succesful in preventing shock waves to all concerned) and,on the other hand,there is one aging leader fron Somdal,who is so thick skinned not to sense all these world shaking changes taking place around him.

Unknown to our leader from Somdal and lay citizenry of Nagaland,'Nagalim'is a sure recipe for the spark for the implosion of the Indian nation.(My old posts on the home page of this blog).

Now,it's my turn to admit this:it makes me suddenly weary to say this--the definitive battleline of the 21st century is being drawn right under our own nose.

And,it runs directly in the middle of this tiny valley of ours.


UPDATE-1
28-07-11

By now,it's clear that there is something fishy about Mr Pranab Mukherjee and the 1 trillion USD.

I think I need to elaborate on the context in which I wrote the original post.

I was nursing a cold on the 24th.From early morning onwards,I simply switched on the radio and tried to get some rest(staring at the computer screen gave me headache).

During the discussion on the headlines of Imphal dailies on 7.30 am news bulletin on AIR imphal,1 trillion USD was laready mentioned along with the 200 million USD as road development project from ADB.

I was stunned at the mention of the 1 trillion USD.

On the FM channel of AIR Imphal,1 trillion USD was mentioned all throughout the news headlines of the day.

Now,cut to night.

I was preparing supper with the radio still playing.There came Samachar Sandhya and it mentioned the 1 trillion USD.Then, the News at Nine--1 trillion USD was still there.

By now,I was totally intrigued.

But,as I was stunned by the magnitude of the money involved,I had in mind to check the veracity of the news on the Web the next morning.

As I was thinking like this,there came Spotlight.They featured a discussion on the 1 trillion USD investment in NE.The discussants were Mr Vir Bhadra Singh,the former Governor and one Sharma,a senior journalist.

After hearing out the discussion,I could not wait for next morning.I quickly ate my supper and wrote the original post.

I was excited at the idea of beating the establishe media,which I throughly expected,would be all splattered by the news next morning.


UPDATE-2
29-07-11

Now,how come the news was blanked out in all news channels?

we are presented with two scenarios here:

1)The wise men and women of the editorial offices of media house across India were quick to see through the 1 trillion dollar crap(pun intended) of Mr Pranab Mukherjee.

OK.It's fine.

But if they were quick to come that position,why didn't they expose the crap fo the number two man in UPA2,who is virtually the deputy prime minister?

Besides the normal duty of exposing such craps,I think there are sizable body within the media fraternity who would be in glee to get the golden chance of going after Mr Mukherjee for his faux pas and demanding axing him from the government.

That did not happen.

2)The second scenario is that the ruling class in New Delhi quitely sounded out the 'heads' of the media houses(through back channel)not to publish the news."Our NATIONAL INTEREST is at stake",they might might have said in persuading the media houses not to publish the news(so as to make it a Manipur-only news--Manipuri dailies did publish it).

This may seem to be an extreme viewpoint.

But we have to remember two things here:

---when confronted with the matters of NATIONAL INTERST(like NE) there is no Indian journalist,no Indian politician,no Inidan businessman,no Indian diplomat,no Indian intellectual--they are just a monolithic Bharatya bloc.

---All thses are possible because India is a young nation-only 66 years old.

The Indian politicians can still harness the energies(is it patriotism?) spewed out at the formative moment of the nation.

Personally,I'll put my money on the second scenario.

If we are to accept the second scenario and we re-read this update together with the original post,it would be crystal clear that the sole objective of '1 trillion USD' is to send out threats to Manipuri society.They are saying--if Manipuri society dares to bank on China for its course of action,we will rope in US and together,we would be more than a match for China.They are saying--beware,we are willing to sink as much as 1 trillion USD.

The ruling class in New Delhi is threatening the Manipuri society.


UPDATE--3
31-o7-ii

Coming as an update,this might seem to be an afterthought.But it is not.I thought of incorporating this in my original post but I decided that it would make the post too long and make to lose its focus.

Let's make a list:
Iran,Germany,Egypt,France,India.

I always think that there is some underlying bond amongst these countries.They seem to send out one common identifying characteristic.

What might be that characteristic?

I've been trying to find that answer for so many years.Do all of these countries exhibit the 'middle kingdom' syndrome?Is it the identifying characteristic of these countires?

Even if we have to accept it as true,still a question remains to be settled--"what about the original 'middle kingdomness' and Mandarinate"?

I think the differntiating factor here is the Great Helmsman,Mao Ze Dong(whom even the skeptical Henry Kissinger was forced to ackwoledged as a 'philosopher'!).Mao Ze Dong administerd a crucial shock therapy to the Chinese society.And the Chinese changed(and still is changing).

Thus 'shock therapied' and changing China is more likely to gel with USA(than with Iran,France or India).The reason is that USA is basically a country steeped in Anglo-Saxon tradition which is getting the succour from the timeless Magna Carta.

US and China would have immense compettion betweenthe two of them but still be complementary to each other.Their competition would be characterized by resource and goodwill hunting in Africa and Latin America,cutting-edge cyber wars and the race to space(like the mining of the Moon).But at the end of the day,they would still be complementary to each other.

In contrast,India is a country which is actively exporting casteism all throughout the globe.It is fashionable for every Indian to denounce the Caste System but when they come back to their homes they would gleefully experience casteism in action in the interactions with their 'naukars'.There is 180 degrees differnce between what are known as domestic helps,maids,nannies or baby sitters and what the Indian call the naukars.The relation between the naukars and their Indian master is still acutely medieval and racist.

Unknown to the educated,forward-looking and modern Indians,casteim is firmly etched in their sub-conscious--unconsciously,they are practising casteim in all small things of their daily chores.

Two countries,one so steeped in Casteism and the other,enlightened by the tiemless Magan Carta,have zero common ground to work together.Incidence of the moment,like the containment of China,would be a too fleeting factor to bring any long term comraderie between the two.

In this contexr,it is quite safe to say that USA will desert India at the crucial juncture,when India is beginning to face the make or break moment as the rebellions in its rims start getting critical mass.


UPDATE--4
02-08-11

This is better be the last update of this post.
(How come so many updates keep popping up in my head!!)

I should be brief.

Would the combined stregth of the ruling classes of New Delhi and Washington dare to spend 1 trillion USD here?Would they dare?

In the eventuality when they start looking beyond cooking up empty threats and looking to walk the talk,they would trample upon a subtle subtext.

The SUBTEXT:If New Delhi and co actually start spending such huge money here,it would send out a loud and clear message to all concerned:"The centripetal force in New Delhi is getting nervous and becoming shaky"

So,the above 'all concerned' would most likely to think like this--"As the centripetal force is becoming shaky,we should better be ready for our own footings,our own futures".

Would they dare to spend 1 trillion USD here?
(One prominent civil society organisation called for the reliving of 4th of August rally marking the protest of extension of ceasefire inside Manipur and then,here is a bomb blast all of a sudden,killing 5 innocent people.It's the direct result of letting assault rifles carrying men and women take the law into their hands and of drilling into the Naga minds that Manipuri society is the cause of the failure of the decade old peace talk.This is the direct result of the rule of casteist and racist minds.The rest of the world,especially the US,would be getting to know all such sordid scheme of things hatched by the casteist and racist Indian minds and India would be a pariah in due course of time).

Personally,I can't wait to see if they dare to spend 1 trillion USD here.

The 10th of June and China

The Poknapham daily of Imphal, quoting PTI,ran an innocuos looking two-lines news on its 11th June 2011 issue.The news,on its page no 2,headlines as 'China does not support India's Maoist'.My translation for the 2 lines--

"Expressing its disapproval of the Left Wing Extremist,who are trying to overthrow the (Indian) State,Communist Party of China today stated that China has no lines of communications with the Maoists.

In one of the rare press briefings for the foreign media in Beijing,Vice Minsiter,Ai Ping,who is also a top official of CPC,said- 'CPC does not communicate with unlawful and violent Extremists'."

As they are 2 lines only,I would quote verbatim the Poknapham's story in Manipuri as well--

" Sarkar uthainaba haiduna Left Wing Extremists groupssingna khutlai paiduna ihou houba amadi hingsa touba asi yaningde,Indiada khutlai paiduna lan houriba Maoistsingga Chinaga e-pao phaonaba leite haina ngasi sarkar pairiba Communist Party of China(CPC)na phondok-khre/

Beijingda foreign mediagidamak sinkhiba yamna tangna thokpa briefing amada CPCgi top officialsu oiriba Chinagi Vice Minister,Ai Pingna 'CPCdi ainna yadaba,hingsagi thabak touba Extremistsingga pao phaonade' haina phongdok-khre/"

As we have to read Poknapham's stories as PDF files I don't like going there and hence,no links here.But they have their site at www.poknapham.in.The particular story was on the issue dated 11th June 2011 and it was on page no 2.

The sine quo non of this post is the 10th of June. In my mind,the Commumist Party of China is trying to send profound messages when they held 'one of the rare press briefings for foreign media' on the 10th of June to talk specifically about the Maoists of India.There is need for figuring out what the 10th of June is.

Meanwhile,I'll proceed further.

Any discerning reader of Imphal dailies can vouchsafe for this--all the actors in Manipur's social and political space agree that there is no other practical steps as the response to the impending blockades of Imphal Valley(my last post) except for taking steps to make the international community to speak out,and if possible,to take actions,against it.

Yes,as my last post have dealt with in depth,the Chinese soldiers in Gilgit Batistan is one of the actions taken by international community,may be,by a part of the International community.As I said in that post,it's the early days for the competing interest groups comprising the Meetei society to have,or,in many cases,trying to have,any 'communications'with the international community.Yes,Gilgit Batistan bears testinomy to the fact that one, or the formations, of the interst groups,have succeeded in establishing that 'communications'with the international community.Now,its natural that other competing interest groups should scramble to have such 'comunications'with the international community.

Again,any discerning reader of Imphal dailies can vouchsafe for this--many inetrest groups are trying to establish the 'communications'with the international community by lobbying the Maoists who are labelled as Left Wing Extremists by the Indian State.

As in all other societies,the Meetei society is not homogenous--it's the equilibrium of the networks of competing interest groups.Mainly because of the political journey of the last 50-60 years,some of the interest groups are more comfortable with things,norms and ideas of our immediate Western neighbourhood.That's why they are lobbying the Maoists for that crucial 'communications'with the international community.

These interest groups are travelling in direct opposite to the way propounded by the Puyas since several centuries--'The Eastern Gate should be opened',in other words,all the roads(including the steps to establish 'communications'with the international community) should lead towards the East.

Now, the rebuff for those interest groups comes directly from Beijing.Beijing now categorically states that they have no 'communications'with the Maoist of India.

Ah!the Puyas!!

I stand amazed at the farsighted musings of the Puyas.

Now,it's out in the open:the Prime Minister is the prime mover in plans to blockade Imphal valley

It has taken the whole weight of the high prestige of the office of the prime Ministership itself and the high-voltage charade of review of the 'incomplete projects of Manipur'to push down the yet another deadline of repairing the the National Highway 53 or Jiri Lambi to 2013.

With the personal supervision of its own Prime Minsiter,the Indian State,on the sly,awarded itself with another two and half years to engineer a ethnic war between the Meeteis and the Nagas(my last post).

The Prime Minster of the largest democracy of the world has just stooped so low to personally supervise the clubbing of the repairing the Jiri Lambi with the larger 'projects' of Manipur so that they can NOW say that some components of the 'projects',by dints of their size(total budget,Rs3500 crores),like the building of State Assembly,make headways while some others,like the repairing of the Jiri Lambi,lag behind.

If we re-read the following old posts of this blog,it would be quite cleat that the Meetei society has just started reasserting its rightful geo-political role,however niche it might be,in the context of the whole Asian scene.Their first few steps brought thousands of Chinese soldiers very near to the borders of the Indian State in the Gilgit Batistan region of Kashmir.This presents us the prognosis:the re-assertion the rightful geo-political role by the Meetei society is likely to bring forward,as Mao Ze Dong was wont to say,"world -shaking events".

Now, the Indian State is putting its all out efforts to nip this re-assertion of the Meetei society in the bud. The surest(and the most cost effective) way to achieve this is to force the Meetei society to get bogged down in a debilitating ethnic war with the Nagas,courtesy of the personal agenda of the Naga leader called Mr Thuingalen Muivah.The key components of this evil plan lies in the health of the two National Highways--NH 39 And NH 53.The Nagas have the complete control over NH 39 and the Indian State is going to complete the circle by not making the other Highway,NH 53,motorable.

The degree of nervousness of the Indian state can be gauged by the presence of so many senior cabinet ministers in the high-voltage charade termed the 'review meeting' chaired by the Prime Minsiter himself at his Race Course Road official residence.

But for the poor common people of this tiny valley,it does not matter much how and why the highest political officer of the Indian state was stagemanaging a charade or by the numbers of the grey heads of the cabinet ministers in the charade or by the meaningless number like 2013.All the same, they would be held prisoners in their households by the ever-tightening blockades in the two highways by the Nagas,with the constant blessings from the Indian state.

When that crunch come,the common people of the tiny valley might start making the first step in re-looking the ever-present entity called the Indian State.

Is it the largest democracy in the world espousing the ideals of unversal franchise and federalism?

Is it the inheritor of a civilization which constantly reminds us with its dispassionate search of the atman?

Is it the inheritor of the evil itself which condon the scheming to blocade a tiny valley by its highest political executive in,as Tehelka would have put it,in plain sight?!

If they come this far,they might even deign to remember their long forgotten but rightful geo-political role in Asia, giving a new life to this question--

Is it the right time to use this rightful geo-political tool to exorcise the evil called the Indian state,which at the moment is scheming to blockade a tiny valley called Imphal in ..er..well..well..let's say it,PLAIN SIGHT?!!

It was in New Delhi(somewhere in Race Course Road!) and it was in PLAIN SIGHT!!

The Indian State is venturing into blockading Imphal Valley

It might sound totally surreal to the normal citizen of the world but the Indian State is actually planning to blockade the Imphal valley.

True,the dirty and visible blockading would still be undertaken by the Nagas. But the Indian State would try to magnify the impact of the blockade by not properly maintaining the other National highway,namely,the National Highway 53.

The still unfolding drama tells us that the Indain State would give a lot of lip services to the repair works of the National Highway no 53 but would do nothing concrete.As and when the Nagas calls for a blockade in the National Highway no 39,the decibel of the lip services would grow leaps and bound--there might be a lot of photo-ops of some patchy repair works currently taken up at the time,that too,by the lenses of specially invited media men.Simultaneously,there would be headline-grabbing announcements of how the Indian State is providing 'security' to the truck convoys in the highways to break the blockade by the Nagas.

But,they would do nothing to make the National Highway 53 to be reasonably motorable.

The Indian state's ultimate objective is to widen what the Prime Minister termed the 'Meitei-Naga divide'.

If we shed aside politics for a moment,then it would be crystal clear that the Indian State is venturing into something that's completely immoral.

This time the immorality of the Indian State would have had direct and visible impact on the bottomline of every household of the Imphal valley and the surrounding hills and mountains.This time the immorality of the Indian State would seriously test the ability of the every household to keep its hearth burning. One hint--a cooking gas cylinder which normally sells for around Rs 300/- is still selling at around Rs 1500/-.

I'm using the words 'This time..'because the other immoral acts of the Indian State like the draconian law,AFSPA and the resultant 9-years long fast by Irom Sharmila have had its impact on the newspaper headlines and the elitist discussions.They have had no impact on the bottomline of the common households.

The line of the shrinking bottomline of the common households of the Imphal valley and the surrounding hills and mountains and the another line of the immorality of the Indian State would likley to intersect on the dusty and windy National Highway 53,which is commonly known as Jiri Lambi.

That point of intersection would likely to be a flashpoint.

We have already have some hints on the scale of the coming flashpoint.

If we travel back two weeks from now,we would remember that some transporters' union gave the deadline of August 31 for the State government to spell out some clear policy on National Highway 53.

Just around 31st August,the news started to trickling in that the chinese had deployed more than 10,000 soldier in gilgit region of the Indian State calls the 'Pakistan occupied Kashmir'.The news was broken by none other than New York Times,which said that the Chinses deployment is to oversee the construction of highway there.

Concidence? Is it??

At the extreme East of the Indian sub-continent the Indian State is trying to use a highway to feed the widening of the 'Meitei-Naga divide'---at another extreme North-West point,the Chinese are deploying thousands of soldiers to build a highway.

India vs China:Manipur's rebels in spotlight

Three US nuclear submarines,retrofitted to carry nearly 200 cruiise missiles each,surfaces,near simultaneously,in the waters,very close to China. The US naval commander said that the near simultaneous three way acts were executed to send home the message that the US is wholeheartedly into the business of playing the role of 'balancer' in the region.

Here is the TIME's full story detailing the three naval shows by the US.

A week after this US naval episode which took place in the last week of June,a very unusual story emanated from New Delhi.Mr Shiv Shankar Menon, the National Security Advisor,would be going to China as a special envoy of the Prime Minister of India! Something's happening,isn't it?

REading together,it's quite clear that New Delhi is trying to emphatically send the message to China that there is a very determined 'balancer'in the strongest nation of the world,the US and so, china should not do anything to disturb the 'balance'in South Asia,more specifically,in the NE Region of India.

Now,the million dollar question: Did China recently do anything to disturb the 'balance'in South Asia?

The answer: China did nothing except the ZHAN LUE ARTICLE.

Here is a link to my take on ZHAN LUE ARTICLE.

Reading together with my last post,it is quite clear that script for the naval showmanship of the US and Mr MEnon as the special envoy of the Prime Minsiter of India was written during the recent Indo-US strategic talk(my last post).

So,what should we deduct from all these?

The answer: Behind all the media glare,Manipur's rebels have quitely jumped into the spotlights of the current and active dossiers of the strategic operatives and thinkers of all the national capitals of the world.

Mass uprising amidst the shift of Asia's strategic equilibrium?

We have in front of our eyes the dramatic shift of Asia's strategic equilibrium.

China raised the issue of Tibet,which the Indian state perceived to be breach in protocol and a clear snub to diplomatic overtures.

The Indian state was quick to up in its feet and despatch its Foreign Mionister to Washington,without even waiting for its President to return to its Capital.

India-US strategic is now underway in Washington,mostly in closed-door sessions.

The Indain State went all out to to hide the festering wounds in NE Region immediately aftermath the Zhan Lue article,which specifically mentioned that China could give helps to rebels of Assam and Nagaland.They tried to to do by arresting all but one leaders of the Assamese rebels,all from locations in a foreign country.That accomplished they turned towards Nagaland,feelng jittery by the moves of China and a little bit impatient to wrap up the longest running peace talk with the Naga rebels.The Naga rebel leaders together with the who's who of Naga political and social leaders are quick to get winds that the Indain state is jittery and impatient to wrap up the peace talk.Their immediate reaction:the fianl and all-out push to include at least some parts of the mountains of Ukhrul in the coming peace agreement.

All these developments result in a profound and totally unexpected possibility:the POSSIBILITY of mass uprising in the Imphal valley,as was witnessed in 18th June 2001,which waw the spontaneous reaction to include the hills and mountains surrounding the valley in the Indo-Naga peace talk.

Part of the Indian state's effort to hide the festering wounds is to achieved the task of isolating the rebels of Manipur and then,their containment.

Now,there is a very real possibility of mass uprising in the same state which the Indian sets out to isolate and then,contain it.

At the risk of being repititive I would say that all developments are the direct results of July 23rd killings by the police commandos in Khwairamband Keithel.

Now,the trend is quite discernible.

11th April 2010:The headlines of this day of most of the papers here was the story of yet another killing of a youth from near Tera Bazar in a fake encounter.This time there was no involvement of Manipur Police Commandos;the culprits this time are the troopers of the 28th Assam Rifles.

12th April 2010:The Hindu carried a news report,quoting the China Daily,which in short,told us that Chinese Government still viewed the border problem with India as one of the 'gnawing issues'.

Here is the link to the full Hindu report.

If we read this together with my last post, we can now safely infer that the trend is now quite discernible---

NOW,WE CAN NO LONGER BE PUT INSIDE THE BOX BY NEW DELHI.

Whenever they treat us like the prisoners inside the box,manifested in extra judicial killings-the fake encounters-many countries,like China are going to speak out.