NOW, with a wider meaning.

This should be the last part! I should really resist the temptation of wanting to continue from the previous day’s post! Well, I’m continuing from my last post.

Did some subtle changes in the quality of the playing field of the insurgency ‘sector’ occur in the meantime?

Did these changes in the quality of the playing field bring about the 180 degrees reversal in what the Naga perceived to be their ‘national interest’?

To my mind, the answer is ‘yes’.

Well, I’ll take this risk of appearing to praise the working of some Imphal-valley based rebel groups and speak out loudly.

This is the first time in the history of the Indian nation that some rebel groups’ political activities make a discernible impact on its foreign policy. This impact is presently making ripple effects in the nation-to-nation relations with India with several of its neighbours. Most of its neighbours are re-designing the diplomatic ‘ammunitions’ to be aimed towards India.

The most visible case is Burma India relations. Suddenly India seems to be obsessed with attempting to leaf frog to a cozy diplomatic relations with that country. Rangoon was bombarded with the sudden official visits of all the heavyweights of the Indian political establishment. Not to be outdone, top military officials were making secret trips to Rangoon. They are also supplying military hardware to the military junta there defying the will the International Community and discarding its much vaunted moral high grounds. They are also giving technical and training support to the junta. All these Indian efforts don’t seem to produce any perceptible dent in the Burmese government’s stance.

Unlike Bangladesh, the Burmese has no history of wanting to spite the Indians without any particular reason. Much more than impressed with the Indian handouts, Burmese leaderships are quick to come to grips with the previously unseen vulnerability of the Indian nationhood.

This is the same case with that of Chinese leadership. I think they are not much bothered with what’s happening in Burma despite the fact that the Burmese seem to have a lot of unexplored oil fields. Neither do they want to annex Arunachal Pradesh. Why should they suddenly make an issue of an Arunachali IAS probationer visiting Beijing? We have to remember here that they refused visa to the Arunachali because they were claiming that Arunachal Pradesh was a disputed area resulting in the whole of the IAS probationers, of which the Arunachali was a member, canceling their goodwill trip to Beijing. To my mind, we are all seeing these things because the Chinese leadership are quick to sense a possible vulnerability of the Indian nationhood and nimble enough to hastily act on it when presented with the first opportunity.

We know that even without all these diplomatic buildups in the region, the US will anyway give access to the nuclear supplies to India. They perceived that tying down the Chinese with an Indian ‘problem’ is in their national interest. So, making India stronger to ‘an acceptable level’ is the aim of US foreign policy. In this scenario, there is no possibility that they are not factoring in the political activities of the Manipur rebel groups in their diplomatic moves in the region.

Coming to the local, is it in the Naga’s( or the Kukis’s) ‘national interest’ to tie down the Imphal valley based rebel groups with ‘a boundary problem’?

If we try to answer this question, it is easy to see that the demand for the integration of Naga ( or Kuki) dominated areas into a single administrative set up is now not a simple thing od re-demarcating some boundary lines amongst the neighbouring states.

NOW, it carries a wider meaning.

Further sensations!

I’m continuing from my last post.

I suspect it sounds a little ahead of time to state that there is 180 degrees reversal in what the Naga ( or, at least, the present leadership of the Naga) perceive to be their ‘national interest’. I don’t mean to imply that I’m a little ahead of time! No way—I’m just a regular guy.

But we got to remember that only 6/7 months ago there was really a big debate amongst the Naga on whether it served any purpose in getting the ceasefire extended for so many times. Some even opined that extending the ceasefire without any tangible result went against the Naga ‘national interest’.

In such a climate, the Delhi operatives actually found it tough to extend the ceasefire for full 12 months, as was the some kind norm for the last 8/9 years. Some Naga leaders even pitched for extending the ceasefire for 3 months only as a means to mount pressure on Delhi.

During that time, it was crystal clear to all that the Nagas thought they were giving away too much without getting anything tangible in return when they kept on agreeing to extend the ceasefire.

Now, this time they agreed to extend the ceasefire for ‘perpetuity’.

As I had said in my last post, this 180 degrees reversal is prompted by the perceived need to drag down some neighbourhood peers. Such perceived need and the resultant change of stance are going to have a profound impact on the health of day to day relations amongst all the societies of the Region and thus, on the fate of the Region as a whole. To have a feel of the sense of the gravity of the situation, we have had to get a glimpse of the forces ranging behind the just formed embryo that will drive this ‘change of stance’.

The prime player would be the Government of India. Now, they have the golden opportunity to pitch one rebel group against another so that the intensity of insurgency is kept within the pre-calibrated acceptable level. Maintaining such a level would enable them to keep a close lid over the whole Region thereby distracting attentions from the International Community.

Then, comes the NSCN(IM). In a more benign sense, they want to keep the first mover advantage at all cost. The key words are ‘at all cost’, meaning they have the stomach to hurt their neighbours.

Lastly, there are various rebel groups of Manipur and some factional leaders of the Imphal valley based outfits. Unaware to them, they are slowly becoming the tools of Government of India and the NSCN(IM).

NSCN(IM)’s headquarter is called Hebron, which is in Dimapur. It’s already becoming a hotbed of shady characters of Government of India operatives in the persons of monitors of the ground rules of the ceasefire agreement, leaders of the rag tag groups of Manipur and factional leaders of Imphal based outfits. Naturally, being in their headquarters, the NSCN(IM) men serve as the catalysts of the whole ‘enterprise’.

Together, they will continue to make ‘news’ in the coming months and years.

Sensational?

What I’m going to say right now might seem to be sensational because there is likelihood that it may be termed as outlandish or an act of jumping to conclusion. I’ll say it anyway because there is enough solid trend to indicate it’s going towards what you think ‘sensational’.

Well, normally, it should sound like just a routine. I’m referring to the resolution of Nagaland unit of the Indian National Congress demanding the bringing together of all Naga inhabited areas under one administrative set up. But if we read it together with the recent extension of ceasefire agreement between the NSCN(IM) and the Government of India for ‘indefinite period of time’, it’s not routine.

To my mind, it’s now going beyond the simple re-demarcation of boundary lines among various neighbouring States.

Now, Nagas, at least the present leadership, seem to think that it is the ‘national interest’ of the Naga to befriend the Government of India. It’s 180 degrees reversal of what constitutes the ‘national interest’ of the Nagas because they had been fighting a tenacious guerilla war with the Government of India, terming them as their enemy no 1, for the last 50-60 years . Symbolically, it’s like saying it’s now in the ‘national interest’ of the Nagas to go West whereas it was always in their ‘natioinal interest’ to go East only some years back.

Why this drastic change in their perceptions of what constitute their ‘national interest’?

In symbolic terms, can we look at the history of Britain’s ‘national interest’ vis a vis France and vice versa? History is replete with instances of Britain’s ‘national interest’ going 180 degrees reversal if it is opportune time to drag down France. It’s all the same case with France.

So, the big question is here.

Is the Naga’s 180 degrees reversal of what they perceive to be ‘national interest’ meant to drag down some peers in the neighbourhood, like the cases of Britain vs France in past histories?