by the meltingpot: The first attempt at crossing the Rubicon.

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Indeed, what is at work in the recent return of realism is the revenge of geography in the most old-fashioned sense. In the 18th and 19th centuries, before the arrival of political science as an academic specialty, geography was an honored, if not always formalized, discipline in which politics, culture, and economics were often conceived of in reference to the relief map. Thus, in the Victorian and Edwardian eras, mountains and the men who grow out of them were the first order of reality; ideas, however uplifting, were only the second.
And yet, to embrace geography is not to accept it as an implacable force against which humankind is powerless. Rather, it serves to qualify human freedom and choice with a modest acceptance of fate. This is all the more important today, because rather than eliminating the relevance of geography, globalization is reinforcing it. Mass communications and economic integration are weakening many states, exposing a Hobbesian world of small, fractious regions. Within them, local, ethnic, and religious sources of identity are reasserting themselves, and because they are anchored to specific terrains, they are best explained by reference to geography. Like the faults that determine earthquakes, the political future will be defined by conflict and instability with a similar geographic logic. The upheaval spawned by the ongoing economic crisis is increasing the relevance of geography even further, by weakening social orders and other creations of humankind, leaving the natural frontiers of the globe as the only restraint.
So we, too, need to return to the map, and particularly to what I call the “shatter zones” of Eurasia. We need to reclaim those thinkers who knew the landscape best. And we need to update their theories for the revenge of geography in our time.
Here is the link for the whole write up.

Now at 2nd place

My view is that relations between countries in the coming decades are most likely to reflect their cultural commitments, their cultural ties and antagonism with other countries rather than other factors. Quite obviously, power will continue to play a central role in global politics, as it always does. But usually there is something else behind conflicts. In the 18th century in Europe, the issues to a large extent involved questions of monarchy versus the emerging republican movements, first in America and then in France. In the 19th century, it involved states identifying themselves through nationalism. In the 20th century, ideology came to the fore, largely, but not exclusively, as a result of the Russian Revolution. We had fascism, communism and liberal democracy competing with each other. Well, that’s pretty much over. Liberal democracy has come to be accepted, in theory at least, around the world, if not always in practice. So the question really is what will be the central focus of global politics in the coming decades? My argument remains that cultural identities, antagonisms and affiliations will not only play a role, but play a major role in relations between states. The full interview is here.

This is the 3rd

Every citizen in the City of Richardson will be able to access 756 Kbps of internet connectivity for free, from anywhere in the city. They will be able to access the internet from their homes, schools, restaurants and parks using standard wi-fi connections which are now installed on almost every notebook computer. That is almost as fast as many so-called high speed broadband connections that one pays dearly for today, and several times faster than the various hotspots at your local coffee shops. And I should note that the tax-payers of the City of Richardson are not paying one penny for this, and in fact are going to see additional revenues as a benefit. ... At the beginning of this letter, I suggested that this would be one of the fastest worldwide rollouts of a technology ever seen. It was just 20 years ago that the first cellular systems were being built. The rollout for mesh wireless systems is going to make that look slow. There are several reasons I make this assertion. But they all center on the facts that installing mesh systems will be cheaper and easier than any previous system and the economics in both the developed and especially the developing world will be so radically compelling. Throw in the fact the any astute politician will want to be at the front of this parade (They will all want to say, "I was the man who helped bring free internet to everyone!") and the groundwork is laid for rapid deployment. In Richardson and elsewhere, MeshLinx is offering the basic infrastructure for free. This avoids all the time consuming, political budget battles in the cities. When a service is offered for free, much of the mandated competitive process is eliminated. Next is the low cost of installation of the system. As noted above, Richardson is a city of roughly 100,000 people living in 27.4 square miles. It will "only" cost about $2,000,000 today to lay the wireless blanket I mentioned above. It will cost a great deal less in the future, as MeshLinx is building the pods at a pace of 100 a month today. The maximum output of the US pilot assembly line is 500 a month. When the demand exceeds this (and it will in a very short time) discussions have been held to move volume production to China. Of course, the world will need tens of millions of pods. The cost for a pod will be a fraction of today's cost, with that installation number for a city like Richardson soon being half (or less) the cost of today. What does that $1 or 2 million get you? The infrastructure to be an internet connection, telephone, security, entertainment provider and a whole lot more company. As noted, it will get cheaper as the number of pods being made each month rises, thus lowering their costs dramatically. This technology does have scale. The cost of physically putting up a pod is not a large part of the equation, as you simply need to run a power line, attach a few bolts to a mount on the side of a building or light pole and then off to the next point. Think about the 40,000 homes and businesses in Richardson. If and (hopefully) over time when 10% decide to pay $50 a month for 10-20 Mbps high speed internet access you could see a revenue of $2.5 million a year just from internet access. Now add in all the other income possibilities (phone, entertainment, security and don't forget advertising revenue on the free service!). Think about your town or country. What would service like this be worth? If you are a small city that does not have high speed connections available, how many businesses that could bring jobs do not come your way because they need reliable communications for their work and their employees? If you are in a developing country, where internet access is difficult and expensive, it will open whole new vistas. Couple that with the various programs which want to give cheap laptops to kids in poor countries, and you could see significant social progress in a generation. Here is the link.

Sunday, June 04, 2006

The first attempt at crossing the Rubicon.

So far, the two peoples of Nagaland and Manipur have seen the talk between Muivah’s ilk and the government in Delhi in its right perspectives—the talk has been discussing the demand of a rebel outfit. Just that.

But the incursion of Nagaland CM, Mr Neiphiu Rio up to Tadubi to tell people there that they should work for what the rebel is putting on the table at the talk was the first attempt to point out to the people of Nagaland that Manipur’s people are standing in the way of their aspiration. It’s Nagaland CM’s attempt at crossing the Rubicon.

First, my disclaimer—this is one of those of numerous viewpoints of private citizens. You are free to draw whatever conclusion as you seem fit after reading this. I mean, I may even be wrong at the conclusion of this write up.

The most glaring point that all the people miss out in discussing the talk in Delhi is the role played by the Left in Manipur. Even a fairly well read person will fail to name any Left leader of Manipur. They have minimum impact in the State politics itself. But they have very good rapport with people like AB Bardhan, D Raja and through such people the ruling class in Delhi has gotten the very authentic ground realities of Manipur—

>>In case of something happening to the boundary of Manipur, the State will be up in flames and the rebels are readying to step into the vacuum thus created and lead the whole people in altogether different direction<<

So, looking at purely from the angle of bare practice of politics, what the political leadership in Delhi is doing regarding the talk can be summarized as:

>>NOT letting the situation in Manipur go out of hand so that the rebels have no chance of stepping in the driving seat, by using WHATEVER MEANS in their disposal<<

>>NOT letting a formidable rebel outfit in the NE go out of the negotiating table, by using WHATEVER MEANS at their disposal<<

So, the least known aspect of the ongoing talk is the spectre the rebels Manipur are casting on it. Actually, the pace of the talk is directly proportionate to the state of the health of the Manipur’s rebels at any point of time.

And this factor is totally out of bounds of Muivah—he has absolutely no control over it.

This brings us to the secondary conclusion—the political leadership in Delhi has no time for either ‘Naga’s unique history’ or ‘Manipur’s 2000 old history’. For them, it is the burden of stark exigencies of running a vast country like India. And the very interesting corollary is that Muivah will find himself with less and less of options as the talk drag on.

If you read this far, you will need only to remember that Muivah was instrumental in dethroning the then CM, Jamir and putting the incumbent, Mr Rio in the throne, to see through the twist and turn of a wicked politics that brings our neighbour’s CM to Tadubi.

To be fair, seeing from the angle of bare practice of politics of a CM named Rio, it is the act of a payback.

But unwittingly, the Nagaland CM has just embarked on an unthinking act which has the exact practical effect of leading his State’s people up to that point from where there will be no turning back.

In effect, crossing the Rubicon.

by the meltingpot

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Now at 2nd place

This is the 3rd