by the meltingpot: Another view from Imphal

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Indeed, what is at work in the recent return of realism is the revenge of geography in the most old-fashioned sense. In the 18th and 19th centuries, before the arrival of political science as an academic specialty, geography was an honored, if not always formalized, discipline in which politics, culture, and economics were often conceived of in reference to the relief map. Thus, in the Victorian and Edwardian eras, mountains and the men who grow out of them were the first order of reality; ideas, however uplifting, were only the second.
And yet, to embrace geography is not to accept it as an implacable force against which humankind is powerless. Rather, it serves to qualify human freedom and choice with a modest acceptance of fate. This is all the more important today, because rather than eliminating the relevance of geography, globalization is reinforcing it. Mass communications and economic integration are weakening many states, exposing a Hobbesian world of small, fractious regions. Within them, local, ethnic, and religious sources of identity are reasserting themselves, and because they are anchored to specific terrains, they are best explained by reference to geography. Like the faults that determine earthquakes, the political future will be defined by conflict and instability with a similar geographic logic. The upheaval spawned by the ongoing economic crisis is increasing the relevance of geography even further, by weakening social orders and other creations of humankind, leaving the natural frontiers of the globe as the only restraint.
So we, too, need to return to the map, and particularly to what I call the “shatter zones” of Eurasia. We need to reclaim those thinkers who knew the landscape best. And we need to update their theories for the revenge of geography in our time.
Here is the link for the whole write up.

Now at 2nd place

My view is that relations between countries in the coming decades are most likely to reflect their cultural commitments, their cultural ties and antagonism with other countries rather than other factors. Quite obviously, power will continue to play a central role in global politics, as it always does. But usually there is something else behind conflicts. In the 18th century in Europe, the issues to a large extent involved questions of monarchy versus the emerging republican movements, first in America and then in France. In the 19th century, it involved states identifying themselves through nationalism. In the 20th century, ideology came to the fore, largely, but not exclusively, as a result of the Russian Revolution. We had fascism, communism and liberal democracy competing with each other. Well, that’s pretty much over. Liberal democracy has come to be accepted, in theory at least, around the world, if not always in practice. So the question really is what will be the central focus of global politics in the coming decades? My argument remains that cultural identities, antagonisms and affiliations will not only play a role, but play a major role in relations between states. The full interview is here.

This is the 3rd

Every citizen in the City of Richardson will be able to access 756 Kbps of internet connectivity for free, from anywhere in the city. They will be able to access the internet from their homes, schools, restaurants and parks using standard wi-fi connections which are now installed on almost every notebook computer. That is almost as fast as many so-called high speed broadband connections that one pays dearly for today, and several times faster than the various hotspots at your local coffee shops. And I should note that the tax-payers of the City of Richardson are not paying one penny for this, and in fact are going to see additional revenues as a benefit. ... At the beginning of this letter, I suggested that this would be one of the fastest worldwide rollouts of a technology ever seen. It was just 20 years ago that the first cellular systems were being built. The rollout for mesh wireless systems is going to make that look slow. There are several reasons I make this assertion. But they all center on the facts that installing mesh systems will be cheaper and easier than any previous system and the economics in both the developed and especially the developing world will be so radically compelling. Throw in the fact the any astute politician will want to be at the front of this parade (They will all want to say, "I was the man who helped bring free internet to everyone!") and the groundwork is laid for rapid deployment. In Richardson and elsewhere, MeshLinx is offering the basic infrastructure for free. This avoids all the time consuming, political budget battles in the cities. When a service is offered for free, much of the mandated competitive process is eliminated. Next is the low cost of installation of the system. As noted above, Richardson is a city of roughly 100,000 people living in 27.4 square miles. It will "only" cost about $2,000,000 today to lay the wireless blanket I mentioned above. It will cost a great deal less in the future, as MeshLinx is building the pods at a pace of 100 a month today. The maximum output of the US pilot assembly line is 500 a month. When the demand exceeds this (and it will in a very short time) discussions have been held to move volume production to China. Of course, the world will need tens of millions of pods. The cost for a pod will be a fraction of today's cost, with that installation number for a city like Richardson soon being half (or less) the cost of today. What does that $1 or 2 million get you? The infrastructure to be an internet connection, telephone, security, entertainment provider and a whole lot more company. As noted, it will get cheaper as the number of pods being made each month rises, thus lowering their costs dramatically. This technology does have scale. The cost of physically putting up a pod is not a large part of the equation, as you simply need to run a power line, attach a few bolts to a mount on the side of a building or light pole and then off to the next point. Think about the 40,000 homes and businesses in Richardson. If and (hopefully) over time when 10% decide to pay $50 a month for 10-20 Mbps high speed internet access you could see a revenue of $2.5 million a year just from internet access. Now add in all the other income possibilities (phone, entertainment, security and don't forget advertising revenue on the free service!). Think about your town or country. What would service like this be worth? If you are a small city that does not have high speed connections available, how many businesses that could bring jobs do not come your way because they need reliable communications for their work and their employees? If you are in a developing country, where internet access is difficult and expensive, it will open whole new vistas. Couple that with the various programs which want to give cheap laptops to kids in poor countries, and you could see significant social progress in a generation. Here is the link.

Sunday, July 09, 2006

Another view from Imphal

We noted that Mr Rajinder Puri’s op-ed talked about Chinese economy in terms of US Dollars (like bad loans to PSUs amounting to nearly 700 billion US Dollars). When his op-ed inspired us to write something about China, we also need to put in dollar terms for whatever monetary matters that we might encounter in doing the write up. So, when we say that Chinese lighters are selling for Rs 2.50 a piece in Imphal, this price works out to around 1/20th of a dollar. In case of the Rs5.00 a piece toothbrush, it is 1/10th of a dollar.

Seeing in dollar terms, the Chinese are nothing short of conjuring up a miracle.

‘Miracle’ may be an overstatement in case of what they are doing in Paona Bazar area in Imphal but they are certainly ravaging that area with their rock bottom prices. Not so long ago, Paona Bazar Road was lined up with mixes of shops dealing in varieties of trades. Book stores, newspaper stands, medical stores, eateries, hardware and electrical parts stores. All the usual mix. What was the original Moreh market ( now called the Paona International Market) was nothing more than a row of 40-50 rag tag stores housed in skimpy wooden structures. I admit all that was changed, not because of the Chinese, but by the hosting of the National Games by Manipur. Then there seemed to be a consensus here in Imphal that the Moreh market should have a more presentable face to those people expected from other States for the Games. So, the present RCC structure was built.

So far, the only change was that the Moreh Market now had a RCC structure housing the stores.

But something dramatic started happening. I can hazard to pin down the starting point to a period somewhere two years back from now. The book stores, the pan shops, the tea stalls, hardware stores and all others started by keeping some super cheap Chinese goods at their shelf. After some months, those cheapo assorted goods neatly occupied half the shelf spaces. Then in no time, there was nothing left of the book stores, the pan shop, the tea stalls or the hardware stores. You name it –you would find it totally occupied by the Chinese goods.

Now, from the entrance of the Paona Bazar Road up to Usha cinema, the Chinese occupation was almost total ( with only one or two photo shops and one or two assorted stores taking the proverbial last stand).

The worst affected are the book stores and magazine stalls. They are totally routed. You have to go at least up to Friends Talkies to buy a book, a magazine or a newspaper. I hate it. I hate the cheap Chinese goods for banishing all the book stores and newspaper stalls from Paona Bazar area. ( The only exception here being the Sahitya Parishad’s office cum book sote and the one belonging to Mr Yumnam Rupachandra. As he is the associate editor of ISTV and a fairly known public figure, I think I can name him. His sister runs the bookstore on their family shop space—so, no monthly rent—and it is mainly known for its Card business over and above for storing NBT books and some DIY kinds. I should also note that there is still a small magazine stall sitting side by side with Rupachandra’s but I think its days are already numbered. You have to note again that Sahitya Parishad’s bookstore is also using its own shop space and they are running their affairs with a yearly grant from the Government of Manipur).

Thus, unwittingly, Imphal has already become the frontline battlefield for the looming competition between the two giants. The most graphic illustration of the battle line is the visible transformation of the Marwari-Gujarati-Punjabi monopoly traders into just another average trader. Their competitive edge lies in the versatile network of their kith and kin which serve as the distribution system for the goods, produced again by their kith and kin, in the factories in Maharashtra-Gujarat, Rajasthan and Punjab. End to end, they are monopolistic.

But Chinese goods do not ride such a network—their USP is the uber cheap price. With exception of construction materials, you can have a Chinese substitute for any goods available here. Thus, this cheap Chinese goods , due to the massive upheaval of 100 million of its peasants, effectively blunted the traditional Marwari-Gujarati-Punjabi network right here in the middle of Imphal. BTW, you have to note those spaces for the big business-politicians nexus from which the Marwari-Gujarati-Punjabi traders normally mint money is totally usurped by the rebel here.

Do you notice a note a celebration in my reporting of the triumphant marching of the Chinese goods in Paona Bazar area?

No way.

Actually, I feel frightened by it.

That said, I’ve to inform you that I’m more interested in the corollary of this great drama now enacted in Imphal. The sheer power of these cheap goods from China propels a class of educated young men here to an altogether new plane from where they are accustomed to seeing that the Marwari-Gujarati-Punjabi traders can be beaten in their own game—trading. They are doing that right now—they are beating them. Some of them are flying in Kathmandu-singapore-HK-Bangkok circuit establishing business networks that usually extends up to Tamu and then to Moreh.

To my mind, they are busy affecting a shift in the paradigm of this tiny society although they are not aware of it themselves.

by the meltingpot

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Now at 2nd place

This is the 3rd