Thursday, January 26, 2012

The shift to military option and how it might unfold.

I believe that Indian State has shifted to military option(The stories of other options are told in my last several posts).

I also strongly believe that India will attempt surgical strikes on Manipuri rebel camps inside Burmese territories.I'll come on this later in this post.

The strongest indicator for this shift came from distant Washington.Barrack Obama,in an epochal shift in US military doctrine,announced that they are scaling back in Europe and focusing in Asia to show that they are a Pacific power.Later on,we also saw the demurred acceptance of China for 'constructive' US presence in Asia.

In my mind,this epochal shift in US policy is mostly the result of intense Indian lobbying(though ackwoledging that US has its own strong interst in keeping the status quo in Asia,particularly South Asia).

The doctrine behind Indian lobbying is mostly likely to be this:Against the looming US military presence,China might cease to be active in the Grand Coaltion Against Casteist Imperialism(last update of my last post) resulting in maintaining the status quo in South Asia.

But India cannot bring about this epochal US shift solely by the above doctrine alone--it must also bring somethng on the table.It's mostly likely that,on its part,India would inflct a back-breaking military blow to Manipuri rebels(who are the active members of the Grand Coalition).

It's dizzying for me to note in real time that the Indian miltary assets(for the break-breaking blow) are being put in place under the guise of the large scale security movements of elections scheduled for 28th Jan 2012.I've neither the wherewithal nor the time to track military movements.But 2 things strongly point towards the military movements as I write this.

1)The sudden arrival of Direcdtor General of Military Operations in Imphal ostensibly for election security arrangements.

2)The unprecedented official Indian request to Burma seeking its help for the smooth conduct of Manipur elections on the 28th.This strongly points to the likley incursion of Indian military inside Burma.

I think that Indian military action is coming.

UPDATE-1
26th March 2012

As I'm reading the news informing us that China has dubbed the Dalai Lama as the 'US-controlled Nazi',it comes to me as a revelation that Casteism, for all practical purposes,equals Nazism.

We may call it Casteism viewing it from the perspective from Social Sciences--but when viewed from the perspectives of the daily grinds of political practice,Casteism surely equals Nazism.

It sure gives me a bad jolt seeing this for the first time that the Casteist constituent within the Indian society(and its counterpart in Manipuri society) is practicing Nazism.

But we come to very interesting conclusion--both China and the Manipuri rebels are equal members of the Grand Coalition against Nazism.

It's the duty of all the responsible citizen of this globe to root out Nazism from our midst.

UPDATE-2
12th April 2012.

Anybody who can take the chance of being labelled a paranoid can read this pattern:--The Indian Army chief,Gen VK Singh's whole drama starting from age row to the leaked letter to the Prime Minister to the coup story is clearly meant to send out the following message.

--The relationship between the Army and its present civilian controllers in New Delhi has soured to such an extent that no meaningful military action would be forthcoming until the General retires on the 31st May 2012(meaning,making the Manipuri rebels complacent in the idea that no military action is coming until 31st May 2012)--

Although seemingly farfetched,this is the only pattern to be singled out for someone like me living in Imphal.Also,remembering that it's always better to be a bit paranoid to be able to stay a step ahead of the competition,I'll defend myself for embracing paranoia in the following points:

1)As shown in my last update,there is already an idealogical underpinning in the coming clash--it's nothing to do with territory,border disputes or rebellion within India.It's everything to do with crushing the practice of Nazism and hence,the smashing of the fortress of Nazism(my last update).This puts tremendous pressure on the Indian political leadership to push the military to assiduosly plan for a clean,surgical strike on the Manipuri rebels with the aim of avoiding international outcry at any cost.Hence, the whole drama.

2)The just concluded visit of the junior Defence Minister,Mr Pallam Raju to Moreh which sits right on the India-Burma border was designed to build up in the message sent out by the drama of Gen Singh.The visit was intended to make the Manipuri rebels think like this--"Ah!Only the civilian controllers of the Indian Army come here--where are the real armymen hiding? We are waiting for them!".Thus making the Manipuri rebels more complascent than ever.

3)The Indian Army is extremely well prepared,as opposed to what the leaked letter by the General tries to make us believe.

This was shown some weeks back when the Indian Army executed a flawless military exercise along the banks of Brahmaputra(the parts of Arunachal Pradesh,which is very near to the Chinese border)involving the state of the art fighter planes and special troops.It turns out that Indian Army has quietly putting together units of special troops for the faceoff with the Chinese army along Arunachal sector!That's some sign of lack of 'preparedness'of the Indian army!!That military exerciser was efficiently timed to coincide with the day when the Chinese foreign minister was in New Delhi.

Isn't it the case the General Singh speaking garbages on purpose to send out some well thougth-out messages?

4)Another garbage the General is mouthing is that the civilian bureaucracy is tenaciously standing on the way of military works,mainly in the developments of military infrastructures.Last heard,about 70 new roads near Chinese border are being built on a war footing.Most of these roads pass through ecologically fragile forest lands but the works are going on a war footing,meaning there is absolutely no case of civilian bureaucracy standing on the way.

The General,again,was speaking garbages on purpose.

5)Another one of General's garbages is the lack of funds.Any casual reader of current news and financial positions of India would be immediately struck with the way the Indian army has been returning money which it has not able to use--that too,on a regular basis,year after year.This current budget is allocating funds to the military which is hefty 17% raise.Now,the Indian military is the largest importer of arms in the world.

So,where is the lack of funds?Total garbage.

6)Begining the month of February,when I wrote the main post,they has been quitely and
slowly amassing military assets for the coming military action against the Manipuri
rebels.Right now,under the pretext of the joint Indo-US naval exercise(a 10-day affair concluding on the 16th of April 2012),they are bringing in the major part of the US Navy's 7th Fleet near the Bay of Bengal.This includes the aircraft carrier,USS Carl Vinson.This aircraft carrier is clearly meant to be quickly deployed deep inside the Bay of Bengal to offset any Chinese movements along the Arunachal sector in the aftermath of the Indian military action against the Manipuri rebels.

Judging by the scale of the ongoing preparations by the Indian State and the personalities(and the quantumn of military assets)involved,it's quite safe to infer like this:

1)The Indian State is leaving no stones unturned in its quest to take the Manipuri rebels by surprise.They are working extremely hard,spanning several oceans and several years,to gain the element of surprise in the coming military action against the Manipuri rebels.

2)the coming military action would be a localized one but extremely intense,by virtue of the application of the full might of the Indian army on it.

Having come this far,it's terribly tempting to infer that the Indian military action would be coming by the 16th of April 2012(the date on the joint Indo-US naval exercise concludes).

But it's prudent not to name any date;instead,it would be wiser to infer like this:

--The Indian military action is likely to come on any date when the aircraft carrier,USS Carl Vinson does not move out of the range from which it can be quickly deployed deep inside the Bay of Bengal to fend off any Chinese movements expected along the Arunachal as the consequence of the Indian military action against the Manipuri rebels--

UPDATE-3
31st May 2012

Here is the headline:

--NE rebels told to leave Burmese soil by 10th of June 2012:Burmese President--.

And,here is the unpublished(and thus,unsaid) line:

--Is it a verifiable promise?--

Here,we need to consider two identifying features of the situation.

1)We are dealing with a vast expanse of land which is one of the few remaining Last Frontiers of this Globe.

2)These vast wild lands are loosely controlled by one of the most mysterious institutions of the world,namely,the Burmese Army.

Keeping the question in the context of these two features,we can safely say that anybody who tries to verify the Burmese Presidnet's promise given to the Indian Prime Minsiter would be assailed by the sense massive frustration.If we go down a little deeper,it's also safe to say that he would be certainly tired down by the constant encounters of frustration and exasperation.

Would the legendary Indian patience would prove equal to this constant encounters of frustration and exasperation?

In trying to answer this question,first,we need to put the recent developments in Burma in proper perspectives.In direct contrast to the constant trumpeting in the media,there is neither opening up nor democratization process in Burma.What the whole range of media sees as opening up or democratization is actually an effort by the Burmese Army to erect around itself a pliable democratic and civilian shield.Its real objective is to enable the Burmese society to speak in two different voices.For example,when pressed hard for the implementation of the Burmese President's promise,the civilian govt can say one thing while the Burmese Army can say another altogether different thing.When pressed even harder,they would blame each other for the tardy implementation of the President's promise.A glimpse for this coming scenario can be seen in the recently signed peace agreement between the Burmese Govt and a faction of a Naga rebel group,which permits the cadres of the group to roam freely fully armed all throughout Sagaiing region,where the Manipuri rebels have their bases.Whenever India complains that there are still Manipuri rebels there,it's
easy to answer that it might be the case of mistaken identity--(Burmese)Naga rebels mistakenly identified as Manipuri rebels.

In other words,the legendary Indian patience would break down in no time.Would all these tire down the Indian diplomats and its military leaders?

By now,it's reasonable for anybody to say that I'm letting my imagination run wild a bit too far!But to defend myself for my viewpoint I'll cite 3 recent develpments:

1)The sudden and the most intriguing yearning for pilgrimage felt by the good old soul of the Pakistani Prime Minister which prompted him to quickly reach Ajmer via (oh!sure)Delhi.The resultant meetings and talks quickly touch the recently unthinkable item like the demilitarization of the Siachin Glacier.So,is there a sudden change of heart in Pakistani side?Or,is it something else?(Just like the queation--is there a real opening up and democratization process in Burma?Or,is it somethng else?).

2)There was another sudden(and equally inexplicable) zeal of the Americans to lift sanctions against Burma and to appoint an ambassador there--that zeal,mark my words here!--accidentaly struck the compassionate American souls barely 7 days to go for the Indian Prime Minister to leave for Burma!!So,is it real American zeal for the Burmese people?Or,is it sometning else?

3)One fine afternoon,around the time when the Indian Prime Minister was being ceremoniuosly recieved in the newly constructed fortress capital of Burma,two Budhist monkd appeared from thin air in front of Jokhang Monsatry in Llasa and attempted self immolations.Is this act the story of the readiness of the monks to sacrifice their lives for the causes of the Tibetans?Or, is it something else?

Why should I take all the troubles to make the above list plus the elaboration on the recent events in Burma?

I take all these troubles in order to enable me to spell out that all these apparently unrelated events around the world are in fact the manisfestations of the intense tussle between two combatants,one representing the forces of Nazism and the other,a coalition seeking to crush Nazism,trying to pin down a battlefront of their own choosing--a battlefront most suitable to their battleplans.

So,where is the battlefront?

In my humble opinion,this battlefront would be demarcated by the way in which the Indain State tries to shake off frustration and exasperation in seeking the verification of the promise just given by the Burmese President.And the verification process officially starts on the 10th of June 2012.

The actual battlefront might not be visible for sometime to come but the actual battle begins on the 10th of June 2012.

Now,there is this uneviable task of putting this game changing development in black and white:

--THE FIRST BATTLE OF THE WAR THAT WILL DETERMINE THE DIRECTION OF THE 21ST CENTURY COMMENCES ON THE 10TH OF JUNE 2012--

Oh!My god!! The commence date is 10th of June 2012!!

What is 10th of June?

Go,figure it out for ourself.

UPDATE-4
17th June 2012

In a pre-emptive move,India fired the first shot fully utilizing its soft powers.

Here,we need to remember that the Indian home minister,P.Chidambaram,in a press conference a day after the Prime Minister's official visit to Burma,diplomatically acknowledged that their Prime Minsiter's just concluded visit was a failure.

In hindsight,it's quite clear that they quickly cobbled together a move to pre-empt the Burmese president's declaration of a battlefront beginning on 10th of June 2012(see my last update).By the 7th of June it's quite clear that the Indain State had instigated the Stateless Bengali settlers in Arakan state,borderng Bangladesh,to start an ethnic war against the majority Burmans there.

Not to be outdone,a state of emergency was declared in Arakan state on the 10th of June.The Grand Coaltion against Nazism made it a point to stick to the 10th of June 2012 declaration of the battlefront.

It's sickening to see EU and Us leaders cheering the Indian State's first salvo employing below the belt dirty tactics.US secretary of state,Ms Hillary Clinton,was personally there--she was in effect saying--"Bravo,India,you are the master of dirty war".

Here we are encountering several new things:

1)The world has already acknowledged the fabulous soft power of India.Beginning the 7th of June 2012,the world had just witnessed a tragic scene:real blood can be shed by the devilish soft power of India.It's a game changing event.

2)It's now clear that there are very potent Indian sleeper cells inside Burma.Just like Al Qaeda,the Indian State,using its soft powers,has been inserting sleeper cells inside Burma.By now widely publicized ethnic war between the Bengali and Burmans(nearly 2000 houses burnt and more than 20 people killed)was evidently initiated by the Indian sleeper cells.

3)If they can do inside Burma,it's easy for them to insert numerous sleeper cells inside Manipuri society.As I'm wrting this,these sleeper cells are listening,plotting and waiting for New Delhi's instructions.

4)Last but not the least,Burma has quitely joined the Grand Coalition against Nazism.That India has to activate several of its sleeper cells and initiated widespread ethnic war points to its acknowledgemnet that the Burma has chosen to stand firm accross the battleline facing India.As the still unfolding events show,it seems not to be decision of Burmese army alone--it seems to be a decision taken in consultation with Aung Sang Suu Kyi and NLD.

In my personal level,it's a bit anti-climatic to see India employing such a below the belt tactic,that too in the first salvo of the battle.As the whole world is rushing towards the brave new world of the 21st Century,India is fast descending into Al Qaeda-level ethos---JAI HO!