by the meltingpot: The Tatmadaw and the Takhel Thaang.

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Indeed, what is at work in the recent return of realism is the revenge of geography in the most old-fashioned sense. In the 18th and 19th centuries, before the arrival of political science as an academic specialty, geography was an honored, if not always formalized, discipline in which politics, culture, and economics were often conceived of in reference to the relief map. Thus, in the Victorian and Edwardian eras, mountains and the men who grow out of them were the first order of reality; ideas, however uplifting, were only the second.
And yet, to embrace geography is not to accept it as an implacable force against which humankind is powerless. Rather, it serves to qualify human freedom and choice with a modest acceptance of fate. This is all the more important today, because rather than eliminating the relevance of geography, globalization is reinforcing it. Mass communications and economic integration are weakening many states, exposing a Hobbesian world of small, fractious regions. Within them, local, ethnic, and religious sources of identity are reasserting themselves, and because they are anchored to specific terrains, they are best explained by reference to geography. Like the faults that determine earthquakes, the political future will be defined by conflict and instability with a similar geographic logic. The upheaval spawned by the ongoing economic crisis is increasing the relevance of geography even further, by weakening social orders and other creations of humankind, leaving the natural frontiers of the globe as the only restraint.
So we, too, need to return to the map, and particularly to what I call the “shatter zones” of Eurasia. We need to reclaim those thinkers who knew the landscape best. And we need to update their theories for the revenge of geography in our time.
Here is the link for the whole write up.

Now at 2nd place

My view is that relations between countries in the coming decades are most likely to reflect their cultural commitments, their cultural ties and antagonism with other countries rather than other factors. Quite obviously, power will continue to play a central role in global politics, as it always does. But usually there is something else behind conflicts. In the 18th century in Europe, the issues to a large extent involved questions of monarchy versus the emerging republican movements, first in America and then in France. In the 19th century, it involved states identifying themselves through nationalism. In the 20th century, ideology came to the fore, largely, but not exclusively, as a result of the Russian Revolution. We had fascism, communism and liberal democracy competing with each other. Well, that’s pretty much over. Liberal democracy has come to be accepted, in theory at least, around the world, if not always in practice. So the question really is what will be the central focus of global politics in the coming decades? My argument remains that cultural identities, antagonisms and affiliations will not only play a role, but play a major role in relations between states. The full interview is here.

This is the 3rd

Every citizen in the City of Richardson will be able to access 756 Kbps of internet connectivity for free, from anywhere in the city. They will be able to access the internet from their homes, schools, restaurants and parks using standard wi-fi connections which are now installed on almost every notebook computer. That is almost as fast as many so-called high speed broadband connections that one pays dearly for today, and several times faster than the various hotspots at your local coffee shops. And I should note that the tax-payers of the City of Richardson are not paying one penny for this, and in fact are going to see additional revenues as a benefit. ... At the beginning of this letter, I suggested that this would be one of the fastest worldwide rollouts of a technology ever seen. It was just 20 years ago that the first cellular systems were being built. The rollout for mesh wireless systems is going to make that look slow. There are several reasons I make this assertion. But they all center on the facts that installing mesh systems will be cheaper and easier than any previous system and the economics in both the developed and especially the developing world will be so radically compelling. Throw in the fact the any astute politician will want to be at the front of this parade (They will all want to say, "I was the man who helped bring free internet to everyone!") and the groundwork is laid for rapid deployment. In Richardson and elsewhere, MeshLinx is offering the basic infrastructure for free. This avoids all the time consuming, political budget battles in the cities. When a service is offered for free, much of the mandated competitive process is eliminated. Next is the low cost of installation of the system. As noted above, Richardson is a city of roughly 100,000 people living in 27.4 square miles. It will "only" cost about $2,000,000 today to lay the wireless blanket I mentioned above. It will cost a great deal less in the future, as MeshLinx is building the pods at a pace of 100 a month today. The maximum output of the US pilot assembly line is 500 a month. When the demand exceeds this (and it will in a very short time) discussions have been held to move volume production to China. Of course, the world will need tens of millions of pods. The cost for a pod will be a fraction of today's cost, with that installation number for a city like Richardson soon being half (or less) the cost of today. What does that $1 or 2 million get you? The infrastructure to be an internet connection, telephone, security, entertainment provider and a whole lot more company. As noted, it will get cheaper as the number of pods being made each month rises, thus lowering their costs dramatically. This technology does have scale. The cost of physically putting up a pod is not a large part of the equation, as you simply need to run a power line, attach a few bolts to a mount on the side of a building or light pole and then off to the next point. Think about the 40,000 homes and businesses in Richardson. If and (hopefully) over time when 10% decide to pay $50 a month for 10-20 Mbps high speed internet access you could see a revenue of $2.5 million a year just from internet access. Now add in all the other income possibilities (phone, entertainment, security and don't forget advertising revenue on the free service!). Think about your town or country. What would service like this be worth? If you are a small city that does not have high speed connections available, how many businesses that could bring jobs do not come your way because they need reliable communications for their work and their employees? If you are in a developing country, where internet access is difficult and expensive, it will open whole new vistas. Couple that with the various programs which want to give cheap laptops to kids in poor countries, and you could see significant social progress in a generation. Here is the link.

Monday, March 29, 2021

The Tatmadaw and the Takhel Thaang.

I have been continually shocked by the brutality of the Tatmadaw(the Burmese army).How is it possible that they coolly shot more than hundred unarmed protesters dead in a single day?They seem to be operating inside an alternative universe,where common human decency need not apply.

As much as we imagine them residing in an alternative universe,they are least distracted by the mundane things around them--thing like EVERGREEN.

Evergreen is the container ship that has been stuck in the Suez canal since 23rd March 2021.It is the same day on which China celebrated 100th years anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China.

And it got stuck in the Suez canal,thereby blocking it and throwing the global supply into disarray for six days.What is the significance of the number six,as the container ship is afloat now? See my next to last post.

1) Evergreen is owned by a Japanese company.

2) All its crews are Indian.

3) The name EVERGREEN! Symbolically,it is saying--Try to safisfy yourself with the green energy only--because we would snap the fossil fuel supply chain'.

They expect China to hear this message.

4) Of course,China does hear it loud and clear.

They just responded with a 25 years strategic agreement with Iran.That includes uninterrupted fossil fuel supply.They signed it on the 27th March 2021.

Reading this,it is not difficult for anybody to understand the strategic importance of Gwadar port,which has been operational after entirely developed by China in Pakistan.From that point they are planning the transport the fuel by land road through Tibet.

All the above points are thoughts coming to me as soon as I first read about the Suez canal fiasco.

Just some minutes ago,the above thought became a thing.Evergreen has become unstuck as soon as the PASSEX,the joint naval exercise of the US and India took off in the Bay of Bengal.That happened only some hours ago.

The cryptic message of PASSEX (reading together with EVERGREEN) is loud and clear--naval blockade of China is coming.

So,the Tatmadaw has inputs that the naval blockade of China is coming sooner than expected.

The tatmadaw has kept almost the ethnic and rebellious armies under negotiation and concentrated on attacking the Karens on the Thai border.

It is not about the Karens--the Tatmadaw is attempting a land route towards Thailand,then towards the ASEaN bloc.

They even used fighters jets on the night of 27th March 2021 to attack the Karens.

The story is still developing but the Tatmadaw is almost desperate to get hold of a passable,if not not totally hassle free land route, towards the ASEAN countries.In the event of the naval blockade of China,they cannot,for obvious reason,expect the existing supply chain between themselves and China to function to its normal capacity.(Nearer home,what will happen to Namphalong and Tamu markets? In the near future,should we be content with the goods entirely coming ASEAN countries? In no time all the Chinese goods might vanish from these markets).

They are looking for another supply chain.

Coming to supply chain,I have a post discussing it.

It is titled,'Does one of our elegant prophesies hint at the epic clash of food supply chains?',dated 4th June 2020.

It is now an urgent task for us to decode the prophesy--'Nom nom sagai tong,chanaba leite takhel thaang'.

I am trying to decode it in my next post.

by the meltingpot

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Now at 2nd place

This is the 3rd