Saturday, June 13, 2015

The deception game reveals the coming retaliatory move.

'Look,how magnificient my trial balloon is',said India's military.

The Indian media men of all hues,standing thousand of miles away,clapped,cheered and said,'Bravo,bravo'.

It totally alarms me in seeing how the whole body of Indian media,cuting across the imaginable tags of regional,national,pro and anti-goverment,suddenly became the mouthpiece of the military.I don't think it's the case of lack of will or professional ethics to fact check the Indian military's story.

To my mind,it goes way deeper than that.Delh's political class,together with the military,have a quite talk with all the media houses and then,they formed a 'team' for a brief collaborative effort in national interest.That's the reason why we saw total unanimity in cheering the Indian military's story and a zero effort at fact checking.Imagine how two most unlikely agencies,media and military,forming a team,however brief it may.It's totally alarming.It's the most dangerous place we are living in.

If they can go this far,the inevitable question comes to the fore--'Is the Indian military's story merely a trial balloon?'.

It's more than a trial baloon.It's a multi-layered deception play.

As the Indian military's story is in retaliation to the June 4 ambush in Chandel(my last post),we need to ask how that ambush came about.

That ambush is the retaliatory move to the killing of more than 40 Burmese soldiers in Laukkaing,bordering Yunnan province of China.

If we go a little bit further,it's quite clear that the Laukaing ambush is yet another retaliatroty move to the public announcement of the battleline,way back in Nov 2014.

Again,if we look at the anatomy of the above moves and countermoves,it's quite reasonable to infer that India would rather cut a sorry figure amonst the comity of nations if it jumps headlong into the loop of these moves and countermoves.But it must be noted here that India is the sole architech of this anatomy.This own deed of India now prevents it from jumping headlong into the loop,even if it desires so.Looking from this angle the June 9 story is proving something more than a mere trial baloon.So,what's the options available to it?To my mind,the only option available to it is to persuade some rebels groups of Manipur to strike at the eco-system wherethe Khaplang group is an important player.But the Khaplang group itself would not be the target because doing so would not make New Delhi's point.

New Delhi's point or the doctrine behind the coming retaliation is to make as muuch as trouble to Burma as during the Laukkaing ambush(subjecting China to such trouble would come at a later stage,possibly with the active participation of US).So,the coming retaliation would happen somewhere inside Burma.

All the above deductions tell us that there would be radical churns withn the myriad rebel groups of Manipur vis a vis their inter-group relationship.With the whole weight of the Indian State bearing on the effort to persuade some rebel groups to make the retaliatory move on its behalf,the inter-group relationshjp amonst the rebel groups of Manipur would witness a sea change.

To my mind,many rebel groups,without even the persuasion from India,would secretly help the groups(which are New Delhi's choices) in making the retaliatory strke in the near future.A lot of radical changes are coming our way.

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