The blockades in 'animated suspensions' :the inside story and the next 2 years.

At the outset,we need to take note of the timings of putting the blockades in 'animated suspensions'.The first one,by the Kukis was suspended just as Mr Chidambaram,the Union Home Minister,descended in Imphal on an official visit.The second one was suspended on the run-up to the official visit of Mr Manmohan Singh,the Prime Minister and Mrs Sonia Gandhi,the president,Indian National Congress on the 3rd of December 2011.

These timings clearly show from where the strings of the blockades were pulled(and,are going to be pulled in future).

Why should New Delhi wants to pull the strings,hiding behind the Kukis and the Nagas?There are several posts in this blog trying to answer this question.But the fact that the blockades are now in 'animated suspension'dictates us to re-state the answer.

The Casteist constituent within the Indian society is the driving force behind it.This Castiest constituent successfully outwaited both Jainism and Budhism(and,also the Dravidian movement in South India and yes,Mohandas K.Gandhi as well).For some time now,it has been on a grand design to outwait the Chinese Communist Party.That's why they have been keeping the Tibetan issue just 'alive'under the cloak of religion.As and when they sense that the Chinese Communist Party begins losing touch with the Chinese people(which may happen after several centuries--the Casteists have been patient all along--see the cases of Jainism and Budhism) they would revive the Tibetan issue and make it secede from China.(It's worth noting that the varied 'micro-outwaiting'games currently underway in the guise of peace talks hardly warrant a mention here).

This slow but incessant pace of the spectacularly successful 'outwaiting game' of the Casteist is being queered by none other than the Manipuri rebels.

Keeping this background in focus,we may now come to the inside story of the blockades.

The inside story in a nutshell--To be able to return to the comfortable and spectacularly successful path of 'outwaiting'its foes,the Casteist have just embarked on a one final effort to isolate and immobilized the Manipuri rebel group(responsible for the queering of the 'outwaiting game')and,in result,the constituent within the Manipuri society forming its bulwork.That's why they have crafted a 3-months-long blockade.Then,they leaked out the details of the 'supra state body' just in the run-up to the 47th anniversary of the oldest rebel group of Manipur.

If the Castiests fail in this final foray,they have no choice but to encounter a clear faceoff with china--which is the direct opposite of their 'outwaiting game'.(In my mind,Ms Hillary Clinton's Burma visit is less to do with Burma itself than to size up the 'Manipuri component'of this developing faceoff).

But the modus operandi of this final foray?

Basically,they simulated(by not repairing the National Highway 53 and simultaneosly
sponsoring a 3-months-long blockades on the highways and then,leaking to the media the blueprint of accedding the 'Greater Nagaland' in the form of 'supra state body' narrative) a situation whereby the oldest rebel group of Manipur would think it's the 'time' to publicly and officially announce its relationship with China.If that happens,it would go full throttle to try to isolate this rebel group(and,ultimately,the constituent forming its bulwork) and brand them as the henchmen of China(a rebel group instigated by China).Some kind of all too familiar 'foreign hand'narrative.(It also seems that the rebel group anticipated this move--that's why China accused India of 'instigating'smaller nations against it--that too,on the 24th of Nov,the birthday of the rebel group--see my last post)

But the rebel group,in its lengthy message on its 47th anniversary(the 24th of Nov),refused to bite the bait.This makes the purpose of the 3-months-long blockade redundant and,so,New Delhi instructed the Naga blockaders to lift the blockade(the 28th of Nov) .

Now,coming to Manipuri society,its Casteist constituent,unlike its counterpart in the mainland Indian society,is not,at present,the driving force behind it.But,by placing itself in tandem with its counterpart in the mainland Indian society and with the economic and political powers flowing out of New Delhi,it,nevertheless,exerts disproportionately strong influnce on the functioning of Manipuri society.By just sitting tight,it effectively drags down Manipuri society to a confusing inertia.In other words,it can outwait the progress of Manipuri society.If it can continue to do so for 2-3 decades,Manipuri society would be in a complete inertia,thus effectively checkmating the movements of the constituent forming the bulwok of the oldest rebel group.

So,the lines of the constant probings to isolate and immobilize the rebel group(and the Constituent forming its bulwork) and the'outwaiting game'of the the Casteist constituent of Manipuri society might intersect in some futre date.

But,this is a tremendously significant 'but',the Manipuri society, which is in the midst of a tightly-joined battle,is likely to encounter a faceoff with an unpredictable but potentially destabilizing factor:the age of our leader from Somdal.Our leader from Somdal,Mr Thuingalen Muivah,is now around 85 years of age but,when he reaches 88,he must be 'almost 90'.At an age which is 'almost 90',he cannot be an effective leader.So,he has got just 2 years to press forward with all his might for 'Greater Nagaland',which is another name for the gameplan of snatching away hills and mountains of Manipur.

In a scenario in which there is possibility of the hills and mountains of Manipur got snantched away,the Casteists agenda of just sitting tight,'outwaiting' any progress in Manipuri society might become untenable,which would set off a chain reaction giving leeway to the Constituent(forming the bulwork of the oldest rebel group) to move forward,which,in turn,would likely to decide whether the Casteists Constituent in the Mainland Indian Society can continue its decades old endeavour to 'outwait' the Chinese Communist Party.

The next 2/3 might as well prove to be a gamechanging ones for Manipuri Society.


UPDATE-1
4th Dec

The Prime Minister speaking at Kangla on the 3rd of Dec was very categorical about 'Supra-states body'--he said the issue was not under Central Government's consideration.

This only tells us that Mr Thuingalen Muivah and the ruling class in New Delhi are now embarking on a 'sophisticated' blockading.

I've already a post describing this.


UPDATE-2
5th Dec

As I have no cable connection(yes,I've already cut the cord!),I got no chance to see the live coverages of the speeches of the Prime Minister and the Chief Minister.I got to hear the edited version of the speeches on radio this afternoon only.

As I was listening to the speech of the Chief Minister,Mr Okram Ibobi,I could easily detect the changed tone and tenor,especially when he addressed the Central leadership sitting right there at the same platform.

Mr Okram Ibobi has changed.

Judging by one of his public speeches on one Khongjom Day celebration,he was acutely aware of the changing geo-political situation in our vicinity.

And this changing geo-political situation has also brought about an equally startling change to the Chief Minsiter.

As he has grown up politically amidst the Indian National Congress cultural milleue(ie,extreme case real politic),he seems to be acutely aware of the new power equation brought about by this changing geo-political situation.He seems to think that he can bluff his way(in,like demanding ever expanding economic packages) thorough the Delhi ruling class.

I think it's the first tangible change seen on the body of the Indian polity which has been brought about by the changing geo-political situation in our vicinity.I also think that more changes are coming.

If he carries on like this,he would have significant impact on the direction on which Manipur society would likely to take,implying that he would have signicant impact on the making of the 'Manipuri component'of the still developing faceoff between India and China.

Today is my birthday and I'm actually proud to be able to detect such a momentous change on this day.

UPDATE-3
22nd Dec

The oldest rebel group responded.

On the 20th of Dec the Indian State executed a tactical retreat.

And,on the 20th Dec itself the oldest rebel group attacked several military outposts near Burma border.

In my mind,it seems to be the classic case Mao Ze Dong dictum in action.I cannot recollect the dictum clearly but it goes on something like this:

When the enemy advances,we retreat.When the enemy retreats,we advance.

We should recollect that it was widely reported that the Kukis would again impose the blockade from 2oth Dec onward but the Indian State used the Supreme Court to announce publicly that any blockade on the highways would be cleared within 24 hours.

That made the Kukis retreat,meaning, the Indian state made a tactical retreat on the 20th of Dec.

UPDATE-4
1st Jan 2012

I would like to start the new year with a fresh re-look at myself.

In this particular post and several recent posts,I tended to veer towards the view that the still developing 'India-China faceoff' had been giving my personal and my society's day to day businesses a warlike impact(like the unavailabilty of petrol and cooking gas--I've been burning woods for my meals).

If it's only a normal and simple faceoff between two countries,my society should not have suffered this warlike impact.

So?

The only plausible reason I can think of is that Manipuri rebels have joined a grand coalition against Casteist Imperialism.

China may be an outsize,but still an equal,member of the grand coaltion.

India have been trying to break up this grand coaltion.That's why Manipuri society sufferred 120-days crippling economic blockades.That's why we cannot buy petrol and cooking gas,except in astronomical price markup.

On a personal level,I firmly beleive that every progressive citizen of this globe have the legitimate right to strike deep inside the birthplace of Casteist Imperialism.Casteist Imperialism is the new challenge faced by the whole world in this 21st Century.