by the meltingpot: The ongoing blockade:New Delhi's Plan B and the uncharted territory

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Indeed, what is at work in the recent return of realism is the revenge of geography in the most old-fashioned sense. In the 18th and 19th centuries, before the arrival of political science as an academic specialty, geography was an honored, if not always formalized, discipline in which politics, culture, and economics were often conceived of in reference to the relief map. Thus, in the Victorian and Edwardian eras, mountains and the men who grow out of them were the first order of reality; ideas, however uplifting, were only the second.
And yet, to embrace geography is not to accept it as an implacable force against which humankind is powerless. Rather, it serves to qualify human freedom and choice with a modest acceptance of fate. This is all the more important today, because rather than eliminating the relevance of geography, globalization is reinforcing it. Mass communications and economic integration are weakening many states, exposing a Hobbesian world of small, fractious regions. Within them, local, ethnic, and religious sources of identity are reasserting themselves, and because they are anchored to specific terrains, they are best explained by reference to geography. Like the faults that determine earthquakes, the political future will be defined by conflict and instability with a similar geographic logic. The upheaval spawned by the ongoing economic crisis is increasing the relevance of geography even further, by weakening social orders and other creations of humankind, leaving the natural frontiers of the globe as the only restraint.
So we, too, need to return to the map, and particularly to what I call the “shatter zones” of Eurasia. We need to reclaim those thinkers who knew the landscape best. And we need to update their theories for the revenge of geography in our time.
Here is the link for the whole write up.

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My view is that relations between countries in the coming decades are most likely to reflect their cultural commitments, their cultural ties and antagonism with other countries rather than other factors. Quite obviously, power will continue to play a central role in global politics, as it always does. But usually there is something else behind conflicts. In the 18th century in Europe, the issues to a large extent involved questions of monarchy versus the emerging republican movements, first in America and then in France. In the 19th century, it involved states identifying themselves through nationalism. In the 20th century, ideology came to the fore, largely, but not exclusively, as a result of the Russian Revolution. We had fascism, communism and liberal democracy competing with each other. Well, that’s pretty much over. Liberal democracy has come to be accepted, in theory at least, around the world, if not always in practice. So the question really is what will be the central focus of global politics in the coming decades? My argument remains that cultural identities, antagonisms and affiliations will not only play a role, but play a major role in relations between states. The full interview is here.

This is the 3rd

Every citizen in the City of Richardson will be able to access 756 Kbps of internet connectivity for free, from anywhere in the city. They will be able to access the internet from their homes, schools, restaurants and parks using standard wi-fi connections which are now installed on almost every notebook computer. That is almost as fast as many so-called high speed broadband connections that one pays dearly for today, and several times faster than the various hotspots at your local coffee shops. And I should note that the tax-payers of the City of Richardson are not paying one penny for this, and in fact are going to see additional revenues as a benefit. ... At the beginning of this letter, I suggested that this would be one of the fastest worldwide rollouts of a technology ever seen. It was just 20 years ago that the first cellular systems were being built. The rollout for mesh wireless systems is going to make that look slow. There are several reasons I make this assertion. But they all center on the facts that installing mesh systems will be cheaper and easier than any previous system and the economics in both the developed and especially the developing world will be so radically compelling. Throw in the fact the any astute politician will want to be at the front of this parade (They will all want to say, "I was the man who helped bring free internet to everyone!") and the groundwork is laid for rapid deployment. In Richardson and elsewhere, MeshLinx is offering the basic infrastructure for free. This avoids all the time consuming, political budget battles in the cities. When a service is offered for free, much of the mandated competitive process is eliminated. Next is the low cost of installation of the system. As noted above, Richardson is a city of roughly 100,000 people living in 27.4 square miles. It will "only" cost about $2,000,000 today to lay the wireless blanket I mentioned above. It will cost a great deal less in the future, as MeshLinx is building the pods at a pace of 100 a month today. The maximum output of the US pilot assembly line is 500 a month. When the demand exceeds this (and it will in a very short time) discussions have been held to move volume production to China. Of course, the world will need tens of millions of pods. The cost for a pod will be a fraction of today's cost, with that installation number for a city like Richardson soon being half (or less) the cost of today. What does that $1 or 2 million get you? The infrastructure to be an internet connection, telephone, security, entertainment provider and a whole lot more company. As noted, it will get cheaper as the number of pods being made each month rises, thus lowering their costs dramatically. This technology does have scale. The cost of physically putting up a pod is not a large part of the equation, as you simply need to run a power line, attach a few bolts to a mount on the side of a building or light pole and then off to the next point. Think about the 40,000 homes and businesses in Richardson. If and (hopefully) over time when 10% decide to pay $50 a month for 10-20 Mbps high speed internet access you could see a revenue of $2.5 million a year just from internet access. Now add in all the other income possibilities (phone, entertainment, security and don't forget advertising revenue on the free service!). Think about your town or country. What would service like this be worth? If you are a small city that does not have high speed connections available, how many businesses that could bring jobs do not come your way because they need reliable communications for their work and their employees? If you are in a developing country, where internet access is difficult and expensive, it will open whole new vistas. Couple that with the various programs which want to give cheap laptops to kids in poor countries, and you could see significant social progress in a generation. Here is the link.

Monday, November 07, 2011

The ongoing blockade:New Delhi's Plan B and the uncharted territory

The Union Home Minsiter of India descended(a few days back for a one-night stay)in Imphal with a well-prepared Plan B.

That he(as a representative of the rulers in New Delhi) did have a Plan B means that his visit in Imphal marked the beginning of the rolling out of New Delhi's big gamble of entering an uncharted territory.

As any move in New Delhi have direct impact in Manipur,its people are,unwittingly,dragged into a journey towards an uncharted territoty as well.

THE PLAN B.

First,why the Plan B?

Because the rulers in New Delhi are conscious that they are betting on a big gamble.Anything can happen.So,they want a safety valve,an escaped route firmly in place as they begin their Devilish journey towards the uncharted territoty.

The existence of the Plan B is revealed by the presence of Mr Prakash Karat,the leader of CPI(M),in Imphal on the same days Mr Chidambaram,the Home Minister in Delhi,stayed here in Imphal.

As it happened,Mr Chidambaram steadfastly avoided the media while Mr Karat was too eager to cozy up with it.

Mr Chidambaram,the Home Minsiter did nothing to lift the more than 3 months ecenomic
blockades on the highways which is choking off the flow of essential commodities all over the State,particularly the valley area.His inaction,calculated or therwise,have the unfortunate and indirect impact of encouraging and supporting the blockaders.

Encouraging and supporting the blockadeers by none other than the Union Home Minsister?

Well,Mr Karat was right there in front of the media implying exactly that when he spelled out how Chidambaram was doing nothing and was,in fact,neglecting and turning a blind eye towards the plight of the citizens as they struggle with the astronomical price rise because of the economic blockade.

This is where the need of a Plan B comes in.If things go out of control,Mr Karat(and the rest of the ruling class in New Delhi and the rest of India) would say it was because of an individual named Chidamabaram(and of one party called the Indian National Congress)--they are the culprits--their fault--but the rest of India is still a friend of Manipur.

Mr Chidabaram and Mr Karat were acting on a fully thought out script.

(As it turned out,it's sad to note that Comrade Karat was not there as a CPI-M leader but as a fellow conspirator of Mr Chidambaram,the Home Minister.And it's also sad to note that Comrade Karat was selectd by New Delhi exactly because the citizenry of Manipur,more or less,have some trust in the integrity of the leaders of the CPI-M.Obviously,Comrade Karat have to forego his party and his own personal integrity because he was on an overinding 'national security mission' in Manipur.Sad.Sad.)

THE UNCHARTED TERRITORY.

Giving a fresh lease of life to an already 3-months running economic blockade is certainly a clear case of stepping into an uncharted territory.

That's exactly what Mr Chidambaram's Imphal visit had achieved.

The blockadeers,who recieve direct intructions from the Naga rebel group,NSCN-M,which is currently on a 10-years running peace talk with New Delhi,have,in the last few days,been reinforced with newer signals that they have Mr Chidambaram (and the rulers in New Delhi) on their side.

But why should New Delhi support the 3-months running ecenomic blockade?

It's because New Delhi is fully convinced that the direction-shifting battle in the fight with China lies in Imphal Valley,which is currently blockaded continously for 99 days now.This point is fully discussed here here and here.

How the ongoing blockade would give New Delhi its much needed strategic win?

New Delhi is deploying all political and diplomatic skills in its armoury to hide behind the Naga blockaders so that the ire of the citizenry would be directed towards the Nagas.That would certainly result in an ethnic war.New Delhi is zeroing in to that ethnic war.Because in that scenario,the rebels of Manipurs,who have evidently a good working relations with Beijing, would have their hands so full managing the crisis that they would no time for relations with Beijing.

I believe that,in the advent of an ethnic war,the Manipur society would be in a complete disarray and thus, would be completely paralysed.

New Delhi,by hiding behind the Naga blokadeers,are aiming for no less than the complete paralysis of Manipuri society.

But New Delhi is missing on one very crucial point.

The present ground reality is the Naga blockaders have a complete sway on one National Highway,called NH 37.To be really effective,the blockaders have to have a complete control over another National Highway,called the NH 53,through which the Govt of Manipur in bringing in essential commodities at great cost(now the queues in the retailing outlets for petrol are 4 kms long--imagine consumers in 4 kms long queues!).I know it would evoke total disbelief when I say this:the Prime Minister of the largest democracy of the world came to the rescue of the blockadeers.But it is fully detailed here.

The upkeep and maintenance of the National Highway 53 is being looked after by the Border Roads Organisation(BRO),which is directly under Ministry of Defence,Union of India.Repeated attempts by the Govt of Manipur to transfer the job to it Public Works Deptt were vetoed by the Defence Ministry.The BRO made a lot of noise and is still keeping the highway in a terrible condition.As it stands now,a few weeks of rain would render the highway unfit for light traffic,leave aside heavy trucks.

On one highway,New Delhi is sponsoring a total blockade via the Nagas and on the other,an organisation under it direct control is making the road unfit for traffic.

A lot has happened regarding this National Highway 53.The Govt of Manipur and a number Civil Society Organisations has petitioned the Prime Minister and many other power players but nothing has materialized.

So much so that the general citizenry has already begun to suspect that soemthing
'extraordinary' is undergoing in NH53.As of now,in my mind,they are refusing to believe that any responsible power centre,be it Imphal or New Delhi or for that,anywhere in the world,would stoop so low as to refuse to repair the highway facilitating the success of an economic blockade,trapping 2 million people inside a tiny valley.They are in denial mode.

Yes,the general citizenry of Manipur is in denial mode--they remain silent beacuse of this but not beacuse they are being intimidated by the Devilish design by New Delhi.I think New Delhi misses on this subtle but crucial point.

As we start entering the unchartered territory,the newly experienced sgnals,impulses and the general ambience might evoke a series of responses within the general citizenry to enable itself to lift the veil of denial and to reveal to itself the true nature what New Delhi actually is.(It is exactly at this point of time that New Delhi hopes to let the Plan B kicked in,presenting Mr Chidambaram and the Indian National Congress as the scapegoats).

I even don't like to mention the only other possible scenario as we start entering the unchartered territory--the ethnic war.I truly hope that we won't come down to that lowly level.

But,as was mentioned earlier,anything can happen because we are being forced into an
unchartered territoy.

by the meltingpot

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