by the meltingpot: A warning for Mr Narendra Modi

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Indeed, what is at work in the recent return of realism is the revenge of geography in the most old-fashioned sense. In the 18th and 19th centuries, before the arrival of political science as an academic specialty, geography was an honored, if not always formalized, discipline in which politics, culture, and economics were often conceived of in reference to the relief map. Thus, in the Victorian and Edwardian eras, mountains and the men who grow out of them were the first order of reality; ideas, however uplifting, were only the second.
And yet, to embrace geography is not to accept it as an implacable force against which humankind is powerless. Rather, it serves to qualify human freedom and choice with a modest acceptance of fate. This is all the more important today, because rather than eliminating the relevance of geography, globalization is reinforcing it. Mass communications and economic integration are weakening many states, exposing a Hobbesian world of small, fractious regions. Within them, local, ethnic, and religious sources of identity are reasserting themselves, and because they are anchored to specific terrains, they are best explained by reference to geography. Like the faults that determine earthquakes, the political future will be defined by conflict and instability with a similar geographic logic. The upheaval spawned by the ongoing economic crisis is increasing the relevance of geography even further, by weakening social orders and other creations of humankind, leaving the natural frontiers of the globe as the only restraint.
So we, too, need to return to the map, and particularly to what I call the “shatter zones” of Eurasia. We need to reclaim those thinkers who knew the landscape best. And we need to update their theories for the revenge of geography in our time.
Here is the link for the whole write up.

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My view is that relations between countries in the coming decades are most likely to reflect their cultural commitments, their cultural ties and antagonism with other countries rather than other factors. Quite obviously, power will continue to play a central role in global politics, as it always does. But usually there is something else behind conflicts. In the 18th century in Europe, the issues to a large extent involved questions of monarchy versus the emerging republican movements, first in America and then in France. In the 19th century, it involved states identifying themselves through nationalism. In the 20th century, ideology came to the fore, largely, but not exclusively, as a result of the Russian Revolution. We had fascism, communism and liberal democracy competing with each other. Well, that’s pretty much over. Liberal democracy has come to be accepted, in theory at least, around the world, if not always in practice. So the question really is what will be the central focus of global politics in the coming decades? My argument remains that cultural identities, antagonisms and affiliations will not only play a role, but play a major role in relations between states. The full interview is here.

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Every citizen in the City of Richardson will be able to access 756 Kbps of internet connectivity for free, from anywhere in the city. They will be able to access the internet from their homes, schools, restaurants and parks using standard wi-fi connections which are now installed on almost every notebook computer. That is almost as fast as many so-called high speed broadband connections that one pays dearly for today, and several times faster than the various hotspots at your local coffee shops. And I should note that the tax-payers of the City of Richardson are not paying one penny for this, and in fact are going to see additional revenues as a benefit. ... At the beginning of this letter, I suggested that this would be one of the fastest worldwide rollouts of a technology ever seen. It was just 20 years ago that the first cellular systems were being built. The rollout for mesh wireless systems is going to make that look slow. There are several reasons I make this assertion. But they all center on the facts that installing mesh systems will be cheaper and easier than any previous system and the economics in both the developed and especially the developing world will be so radically compelling. Throw in the fact the any astute politician will want to be at the front of this parade (They will all want to say, "I was the man who helped bring free internet to everyone!") and the groundwork is laid for rapid deployment. In Richardson and elsewhere, MeshLinx is offering the basic infrastructure for free. This avoids all the time consuming, political budget battles in the cities. When a service is offered for free, much of the mandated competitive process is eliminated. Next is the low cost of installation of the system. As noted above, Richardson is a city of roughly 100,000 people living in 27.4 square miles. It will "only" cost about $2,000,000 today to lay the wireless blanket I mentioned above. It will cost a great deal less in the future, as MeshLinx is building the pods at a pace of 100 a month today. The maximum output of the US pilot assembly line is 500 a month. When the demand exceeds this (and it will in a very short time) discussions have been held to move volume production to China. Of course, the world will need tens of millions of pods. The cost for a pod will be a fraction of today's cost, with that installation number for a city like Richardson soon being half (or less) the cost of today. What does that $1 or 2 million get you? The infrastructure to be an internet connection, telephone, security, entertainment provider and a whole lot more company. As noted, it will get cheaper as the number of pods being made each month rises, thus lowering their costs dramatically. This technology does have scale. The cost of physically putting up a pod is not a large part of the equation, as you simply need to run a power line, attach a few bolts to a mount on the side of a building or light pole and then off to the next point. Think about the 40,000 homes and businesses in Richardson. If and (hopefully) over time when 10% decide to pay $50 a month for 10-20 Mbps high speed internet access you could see a revenue of $2.5 million a year just from internet access. Now add in all the other income possibilities (phone, entertainment, security and don't forget advertising revenue on the free service!). Think about your town or country. What would service like this be worth? If you are a small city that does not have high speed connections available, how many businesses that could bring jobs do not come your way because they need reliable communications for their work and their employees? If you are in a developing country, where internet access is difficult and expensive, it will open whole new vistas. Couple that with the various programs which want to give cheap laptops to kids in poor countries, and you could see significant social progress in a generation. Here is the link.

Wednesday, August 26, 2015

A warning for Mr Narendra Modi

I think Mr Kiren Rijiju,the juniour home minister,was intructed to play games in the surcharged political situation in Manipur.

First,in his visit in Imphal during the recent floods and landslides,he told the media that the Manipur government has the legitimate right to pass laws to protect its indigenious people.He further told the media that the Union Government,if the need arises,is ready to work together with the state government.

But,after some weeks,he,during an official function in Guwahati, played around with the words,'President's Rule',while the Manipur Chief Minister was busy negotiating with the leaders of the agitators.

That prompted the Manipur Chief Minister to rush to New Delhi.What has transpired between Mr Rijiju and the Manipur Chief Minister in New Delhi?

We are not given the time to search for the answer for the above question.Today,the State Government announced that the three bills to protect its indigenous people will be passed by the State Legislative Assembly on the 31st of August 2015.The announcement came after the government accepted all the ten demands of the agitators.

Here we are talking about some ministers from New Delhi playing games in the internal politics of Manipur exactly because India's polity is unitary.Noises about federalism are meant solely for propaganda purpose.

Here,again,we do not have enough time to go deeper into the matter,as we are overtaken by events around us.The person manning the unitary system in New Delhi has already got his home turf burning.Rigiht now,there is curfew and military patrolling in the state of Gujarat.

Is this a warning for Mr Narendra Modi?

Before answering this,we need to understand what's happening right now in Gujarat.The Patels want reservation.They want the OBC tag.But the Patels,though not an ethnic group,are landowners and traders.They do not form a marginalised group.Even a Patel is the incumbent Chief Minsiter of the state.So,why there is this present agitation by the Patels,which results in cuefew and military patrolling?

Exactly because India's polity is unitary.The Patels want more freebies from the masters in New Delhi.The Patels are not the only group who are clamouring for more freebies from the masters in New Delhi.The Chief Mnisters of major states like Bihar and Andhra Pradesh has already joined the fray.

In the days where there are nervous volatality in the stock markets of the world,it's most appropriate to ask this question:How would the masters in New Delhi get the freebies to be doled out to the increasing number of groups?Freebies doled out to the small ethnic groups in NE is quite manageable because the amount required is quite small.But managing freebies for large populations of likes of Gujarat,Bihar,Andhra Pradesh etc would prove to be a paradigm shift for the people manning the unitary set up in New Delhi.

It's a matter of simple economics to understand that New Delhi cannot continue printing money in the longer term.In the shorter term it can print more money and fuel more economic activities.The idea is to somehow put money in the hands of the vast rural population of India and make them buy up things.This would enable more factory activities,spurring more production and job creations.The example is the vast enterprise of handing out 'job cards' to the rural folks.

But there is one catch.While it's still possible to print more money,it's a must to build up durable infrastructures like roads,irrigation canals,schools and unversitry.But a society which have no qualm in killing girl child in the womb itself and forcing underaged girls into marriages won't be able to build up any of the above infrastures.So,while it's possible for India to print more money,it's totally critical to build up quality huamn capital as well.I think India's society have limited time to achieve this--but it would require unlimited amoount efficiendy in the system(like the one provided by the Communist Party of China).

But the likes of present agitations in Gujarat are the sure recipe for injecting massive inefficiecy in the system.So,what's the option available to the people manning the unitary set up in New Delhi?

1)They can say that they cannot afford the freebies to be doled out to the vast numbers of agitating groups.So,let's get rid of this unitary set up.

2)They can also say that they would continue to print more money to get more freebies so that they can lord over the present unitary set up.

Mr Narendra Modi would get the chance to show the world which option he chooses when the Manipur Legislative Assemby pass the three bills to protect the indigenous people of Manipur on the 31st August 2015.

If he chooese the options no 1,the three bills would become laws.

If he chooses the option no 2,the three bills would remain worthless papers.

But Mr Narendra Modi has already been warned by the present agitation in his home state of Gujarat that printing more money(thus, India becoming a pauper state) presents no smart choice for the vast ordinary people of India.

by the meltingpot

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