by the meltingpot: The expanding concentric circles of war

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Indeed, what is at work in the recent return of realism is the revenge of geography in the most old-fashioned sense. In the 18th and 19th centuries, before the arrival of political science as an academic specialty, geography was an honored, if not always formalized, discipline in which politics, culture, and economics were often conceived of in reference to the relief map. Thus, in the Victorian and Edwardian eras, mountains and the men who grow out of them were the first order of reality; ideas, however uplifting, were only the second.
And yet, to embrace geography is not to accept it as an implacable force against which humankind is powerless. Rather, it serves to qualify human freedom and choice with a modest acceptance of fate. This is all the more important today, because rather than eliminating the relevance of geography, globalization is reinforcing it. Mass communications and economic integration are weakening many states, exposing a Hobbesian world of small, fractious regions. Within them, local, ethnic, and religious sources of identity are reasserting themselves, and because they are anchored to specific terrains, they are best explained by reference to geography. Like the faults that determine earthquakes, the political future will be defined by conflict and instability with a similar geographic logic. The upheaval spawned by the ongoing economic crisis is increasing the relevance of geography even further, by weakening social orders and other creations of humankind, leaving the natural frontiers of the globe as the only restraint.
So we, too, need to return to the map, and particularly to what I call the “shatter zones” of Eurasia. We need to reclaim those thinkers who knew the landscape best. And we need to update their theories for the revenge of geography in our time.
Here is the link for the whole write up.

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My view is that relations between countries in the coming decades are most likely to reflect their cultural commitments, their cultural ties and antagonism with other countries rather than other factors. Quite obviously, power will continue to play a central role in global politics, as it always does. But usually there is something else behind conflicts. In the 18th century in Europe, the issues to a large extent involved questions of monarchy versus the emerging republican movements, first in America and then in France. In the 19th century, it involved states identifying themselves through nationalism. In the 20th century, ideology came to the fore, largely, but not exclusively, as a result of the Russian Revolution. We had fascism, communism and liberal democracy competing with each other. Well, that’s pretty much over. Liberal democracy has come to be accepted, in theory at least, around the world, if not always in practice. So the question really is what will be the central focus of global politics in the coming decades? My argument remains that cultural identities, antagonisms and affiliations will not only play a role, but play a major role in relations between states. The full interview is here.

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Every citizen in the City of Richardson will be able to access 756 Kbps of internet connectivity for free, from anywhere in the city. They will be able to access the internet from their homes, schools, restaurants and parks using standard wi-fi connections which are now installed on almost every notebook computer. That is almost as fast as many so-called high speed broadband connections that one pays dearly for today, and several times faster than the various hotspots at your local coffee shops. And I should note that the tax-payers of the City of Richardson are not paying one penny for this, and in fact are going to see additional revenues as a benefit. ... At the beginning of this letter, I suggested that this would be one of the fastest worldwide rollouts of a technology ever seen. It was just 20 years ago that the first cellular systems were being built. The rollout for mesh wireless systems is going to make that look slow. There are several reasons I make this assertion. But they all center on the facts that installing mesh systems will be cheaper and easier than any previous system and the economics in both the developed and especially the developing world will be so radically compelling. Throw in the fact the any astute politician will want to be at the front of this parade (They will all want to say, "I was the man who helped bring free internet to everyone!") and the groundwork is laid for rapid deployment. In Richardson and elsewhere, MeshLinx is offering the basic infrastructure for free. This avoids all the time consuming, political budget battles in the cities. When a service is offered for free, much of the mandated competitive process is eliminated. Next is the low cost of installation of the system. As noted above, Richardson is a city of roughly 100,000 people living in 27.4 square miles. It will "only" cost about $2,000,000 today to lay the wireless blanket I mentioned above. It will cost a great deal less in the future, as MeshLinx is building the pods at a pace of 100 a month today. The maximum output of the US pilot assembly line is 500 a month. When the demand exceeds this (and it will in a very short time) discussions have been held to move volume production to China. Of course, the world will need tens of millions of pods. The cost for a pod will be a fraction of today's cost, with that installation number for a city like Richardson soon being half (or less) the cost of today. What does that $1 or 2 million get you? The infrastructure to be an internet connection, telephone, security, entertainment provider and a whole lot more company. As noted, it will get cheaper as the number of pods being made each month rises, thus lowering their costs dramatically. This technology does have scale. The cost of physically putting up a pod is not a large part of the equation, as you simply need to run a power line, attach a few bolts to a mount on the side of a building or light pole and then off to the next point. Think about the 40,000 homes and businesses in Richardson. If and (hopefully) over time when 10% decide to pay $50 a month for 10-20 Mbps high speed internet access you could see a revenue of $2.5 million a year just from internet access. Now add in all the other income possibilities (phone, entertainment, security and don't forget advertising revenue on the free service!). Think about your town or country. What would service like this be worth? If you are a small city that does not have high speed connections available, how many businesses that could bring jobs do not come your way because they need reliable communications for their work and their employees? If you are in a developing country, where internet access is difficult and expensive, it will open whole new vistas. Couple that with the various programs which want to give cheap laptops to kids in poor countries, and you could see significant social progress in a generation. Here is the link.

Saturday, August 15, 2015

The expanding concentric circles of war

We need to look back at the month of June.

Several powerful persons met the press so that they got reported on the 12th of June 2015.

For example,Dr Jitndra Singh,Minister of State at the Prime Minister's Office was in Imphal and met the press on the 11th.Interestingly,the press briefing was also attended by Mr R N Ravi,GOI interlocutor of Naga talk.

On the same day,Mr Rahul Gandhi,Vice President,Indian National Congress,the main opposition party of India,also me the press in New Delhi.

The main theme of both the press meet was the much-hyped Indian special soldiers' attack on the rebel camps in retaliation to the 4th June rebel ambush in Chandel district,Manipur.Of course,we read the reports of both the press meet on the 12th June newspapers.We must note that Dr Jitendra Singh's press briefing was characterized by his insistence that instances like the Paraolon ambush hindered development.

So,what's on 12th June 2015?

The Shanghai Composite,the bellwether Chinese Stock index crashed more than 30%.It was indeed a surreal sell off in the premiere Chinese stock market.Here,we must note Dr Jitendra Singh's insistence on development angle.Is there any better way of hindering China's development than by making the Shanghai Composite by more than 30%?Dr Jitendra Singh's Imphal press briefing was to serve as a warning to China.

Now,let's go to the 2nd of July,2015.

On this day also,the Shanghai Composite,despite the active intervention by Chinese government agencies,crashed again.It was indeed an abnormal crash.

So,what's on the 2nd of July,2015?

It's definite--I don't like to say this.But I cannot shirk my responsibility away.

The day before,the 1st of July,there was this blogpost of mine.It was the first published study of the constituent within the US society which is rooting for an administration,more or less,in line with the one provided by the Communist Party of China to the citizens of the People's Republic of China.

So,did I just say that the 2nd of July crash of the Shanghai Composite was in response to the blogpost of mine?Well,this question makes me laugh!I'm just a regular guy,trying to blog about the happenings in my surroundings.It's well nigh impossible for a blopost of mine to elicit such huge response.

So,what did I say then?

Something actually happened in South Carolina which gave out the first hints of the existence of the hard-to-believe constituent within the US.My blogpost simply connected the dots in a published format.So,on the 2nd of July,the US retaliated by rigging the Shanghai Composite Index.My blogpost was nowhere in the picture.

As I was reading the charts of various companies on the NSE,India,I read the news of the crashes of the Shanghai Composite Index,as they were happening.The normal reactions to the crashes were that they were abnormal.I also suspected that there were some others factors besides economics that caused the crashes.I felt in my bone that the US was rigging the Shanghai Composite to reveal the real face of the administration of the Communist Party of China in the realm of the economic affairs of the Chinese society.Actually,the crashed show the inexperience of the Chinese society in matters of the stock exchange.

But I could not find a pattern to justify my gut feelings.Gut feelings are just gut feelings.I cannot write of my gut feeling without some plausible patterns to back it up.

Suddenly,on the 11th of August,the all important pattern materialized when the Chinese central bank devalued the Yuan thrice in three successive days.It started on the 11th of August and continue upto 13th August.13th of August?Although the 13th of August is an important date for us,we must not be fooled into believing that the Yuan devaluation hinted at something by wrapping up the devaluation on it.What it intends to hint at is reserved for two days later--the15th of August 2015.As usual there is the shutdown called by the rebels.Besides this,the ultimatum set by the current agitators expires on this day.

As we are acknowledging the above hints,we must also take note that it was an amazing sight.There is nothing economics in the devaluations.It is more like a declaration of war.Just a day after it,there was these mammoth blasts in Tinjian,killing nearly 100 people and injuring more than 500.

1)The Chinese have taken 'revenge' of the successive rigging of the Shanghai Composite by triggering heavy sell offs in all the stock exchanges of the world.(But,not by 30%!That the Shanghai Composite crashed by as much as 30% is mainly because of the inexperience of Chinese authorities in handling matters of financial markets.I think it's only just a year back that the Shanghai Composite was opened up to the outside investors.Before that it was tightly control by the Chinese government authorities.On the flip side,the American regulators have this huge practical experiences gained in the constant battles to fend off talented people trying the game the financial markets in the US.In short,they have this huge know how to rig a stock exchanges).

2)The Chinese are challenging all the competing nations for a currency war.

So,the Paraolon ambush,a hard -to-believe constituent within the US society, the carnage in the Shanghai Composite Index and an open challenge for a currency war--what to make out of all these?

We are witnessing the expanding concentric circles of war from the epicentre.

by the meltingpot

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